Can the Bears afford to wait on drafting talent for the lines?
In 2011, the NFL shifted to a new era of rookie contracts and pay scales, changing in many ways how teams could and would build their rosters. The first ten draft classes (from 2011 through 2020) have now been able to see through their entire first contracts, including the fifth-year option afforded teams under the terms of the CBA. Excluding specialists like place kickers, punters, and long snappers, teams have drafted 2502 players in this time.
Among these men, the players drafted in the first two rounds tend to be the major contributors. Although only a quarter of the total pool of candidates, they represent 70% of the players who will earn a Pro Bowl distinction in their first five years. For more modest aspirations, nearly 500 of the 1200 players to make it at least four years and play in at least fifty games were drafted in the first two rounds. Some of this second group is because teams will tend to favor players who they invested resources in, but much of it is because the talent in the NFL draft is top heavy.
As the 2025 NFL draft draws closer, I intend to fully explore the full results of all 2500-plus of these players, grouped by position, by draft order, and by on-field outcomes. However, given the current needs of the Chicago Bears and the opportunity they enjoy by holding a pick in the top ten and a total of three picks in the top two rounds, I wanted to take a quick look at what happens when teams invest top picks (i.e. those from the first two rounds) in the trenches.
258 of the 635 picks in the first two rounds went to players on either the offensive or defensive lines, but those are not evenly spread in terms of investment. Despite the fact that there are five starting positions on the offensive line, only 110 top picks were spent on offensive linemen, versus 148 top picks spent to cover either 4- or 5-position defensive sets.
On defense, 81 picks were spent on edge rushers. That’s 13% of the top picks in the draft spent on a position that is only 9% of a starting line up. Those picks were used to find 23 players who would go on to make at least one Pro Bowl in their first five years in the league (or a 28% rate of finding a Pro Bowler, roughly the league average across all positions). However, less than half of these players (37) started in at least 40 games in their first five years. Instead, 61 played in at least 60 games. In other words, teams invested heavily in edge rushers, and while they tended to find elite players at the same average rate as other positions, they struggled to turn these picks into starters. The good news is that talent that was worth drafting in the top two rounds was almost always valuable enough to keep around.
Only 67 picks were spent of iDL, and only 25% of those made the Pro Bowl (17 picks) in their first five years. A total of 41 of these players (61%) started at least 40 games (with 48 total players making an appearance in at least 60 games). The overwhelming majority of these players (59 total) had careers of at least five years. While it was slightly harder to find impact players on the interior, in general picks spent on the inside of the defensive line resulted in starters at an average rate and players were far less likely to wash out completely compared to their peers at similar draft positions. Compared to other positions, teams seldom “wasted” picks spent on the defensive line.
On the offensive side of the ball, things are different. Only 61 picks were invested in tackles, despite the lip service given to the importance of the position, and less than 20% of them made the Pro Bowl in their first five years. However, 80% of these players would start at least 40 games, and the failure rate was still around 11%. Compared to the defensive side of the ball, tackles were safer bets at finding a starter but not as likely to pay off with a Pro Bowl appearance.
Finally, 47 high-value picks were spent on the interior of the offensive line. Despite representing 14% of a starting lineup, teams only invested 7% of their best picks in these positions. Amazingly, fifteen of these picks (32%) found Pro Bowlers. This could mean that NFL teams only spend high picks on interior offensive linemen if they are standouts, or it could mean that more teams, in fact, should invest high picks on the elite talent at these positions. Overall, 39 top draftees became regular starters here (83%), and only two failed to make it at least five years in the league. In simple terms, when teams spend top picks on the interior of the offensive line, those picks are less likely to go to waste and more likely to produce valuable players in terms of contributing or making an impact.
One final note, teams that wait to select players on the interior of the offensive line do not find elite players later on. Instead, only two multi-Pro Bowl interior offensive linemen were found after the first two rounds, which was the same total as quarterbacks, and about the same level as Edge, Wide Receiver, and Defensive backs (3 each) or interior Defensive Line, Offensive Tackle, or Linebacker (1 each). In fact, the only positions where it makes sense from the historical perspective to wait for elite talent are running back (six multi-Pro Bowlers drafted after the first two rounds) and tight end (five).
Ultimately, teams that want to see improvement on the trenches need to invest elite resources there. The Chicago Bears have those resources if they choose to fix the problems in front of them.