More than half of Chicago’s bus routes could be eliminated, at least parts of four “L” lines could shut down and Metra weekday service would be slashed to once an hour under a transit doomsday scenario.
Those are some of the cuts under consideration if lawmakers fail to plug a $771 million budget gap expected to hit the region’s four transit agencies as soon as next year, when COVID-19 relief funding runs out, the Regional Transportation Authority said Friday. Also on the table are fare hikes and job losses.
The potential cuts represent a worst-case scenario if none of the budget hole is filled. The reductions would dramatically slash service across the CTA, Metra and Pace, limit access to buses and trains across the city and suburbs and bring dire economic consequences to the region, the RTA warned.
“People have to understand what the consequences are of not filling the funding gap,” said RTA Executive Director Leanne Redden, calling the effects of the potential cuts “devastating.”
The agency outlined the situation as debate in Springfield heats up over the future of transit. Transit agencies and advocates have pushed to boost funding, while lawmakers have said their focus is first on the way transit is overseen. Two bills under consideration by the General Assembly address oversight, with one calling to consolidate the CTA, Metra, Pace and the RTA into one entity, and another, backed by a coalition of labor groups, aiming to boost coordination among the existing agencies.
The RTA, for its part, has acknowledged that reform of transit is needed and supports measures similar to the labor-backed bill. Chairman Kirk Dillard has called for a stronger RTA that would coordinate fares, service and construction projects among city and suburban bus and train agencies. He has also proposed fare hikes, savings from the new oversight model and more state funding to generate more money for transit.
But funding remains a pressing issue, RTA officials have said. They and other advocates have pushed to not just close the budget gap but go further and find $1.5 billion in new money to overhaul the system.
With the extra money, transit could grow and efforts already underway could expand, like a CTA plan to run buses every 10 minutes on key routes or Metra’s work to run more trains throughout the day rather than focusing on commuting hours, RTA officials said. CTA Acting President Nora Leerhsen previously said additional money also could allow trains to run every six minutes and overnight service to expand.
Failure to plug the budget hole, on the other hand, could lead to dramatic cuts. And planning could start this summer if lawmakers fail to act by the end of the legislative session, agency officials said.
The CTA, Metra and Pace would begin planning for service cuts as part of their budget processes and would be required to give public notice on proposals to slash service or raise fares. That could happen through the summer and fall, for changes to begin taking effect in 2026.
“You cannot really balance this kind of budget gap with service reductions,” said Maulik Vaishnav, senior deputy executive director of planning and capital programming at the RTA. “There has to be full eliminations on the table.”
More specifics about routes and lines that could be affected would be identified during the planning process. In the meantime, the transit agencies have warned of the scale of the potential cuts.
On the CTA, service could be cut on all or at least some branches of half of the agency’s train lines, and 50 stations could close or see service slashed. Trains could run 10% to 25% less often, and as many as 74 of the agency’s 127 bus routes could be eliminated.
Metra service could be cut by 40%, and trains would run once per hour on weekdays and once every two hours on weekends. Early-morning and late-evening trains could be eliminated, and service could stop running entirely on a branch of the Metra Electric line that runs to suburban Blue Island, cutting off access to seven stops. The BNSF line, Metra’s busiest, could be cut from 91 trains per day to 44.
Cutting Metra service could be especially challenging because it would take years to bring back, the RTA said. Metra shares tracks with freight railroads, which makes changing service complex, and the agency could lose staff to the other railroads who would be difficult to replace.
Pace suburban bus service also would see steep cuts, affecting shift workers who rely on the buses to get to jobs and residents who use buses for medical appointments and errands.
All weekend Pace service could be cut. Routes that now run every 15 to 20 minutes could run every half-hour, and buses that now run every 30 minutes could have their wait times double. Service after 8 p.m. would end on 62 routes.
Paratransit service for people with disabilities is federally mandated, but the service area could be cut by more than half on weekends, the RTA said.
The cuts would leave communities without transit, with the CTA bus eliminations alone cutting off access for 500,000 residents, the RTA estimated. They would also bring consequences for the entire region.
The cuts could mean $1 billion in lost wages annually for the Chicago area as access to job opportunities is lost, according to the RTA. Almost 3,000 transit workers could be laid off. And the budget shortfall could kick off a cycle of funding shortages and service cuts as fewer people ride.
Traffic congestion also could skyrocket as more people buy cars instead of turning to transit, worsening emissions and air quality and causing gridlock that would make travel times 30% longer, according to the RTA.
“The whole network ends up being devastated and ends up providing workers with many, many fewer commuting options,” Redden said. “So it becomes less of a viable service for them to use.”
The RTA is not advocating for a source of funding for transit, Redden said, though the agency has analyzed 11 potential options, including tweaking sales taxes, congestion pricing and increasing vehicle registration fees.
The RTA also pointed to what it described as decades of underfunding as a contributor to the looming budget shortfall. Illinois funds 17% of transit operations, while New York covers 28% and Philadelphia covers 50%, the RTA said. The state also reimburses only 4% of the cost of paratransit services and 14% of the cost of free and reduced-fare programs for seniors and disabilities, the RTA said.
Though the service cuts outlined Friday paint a dire picture for transit in the Chicago area, Leerhsen, at the CTA, has said the agency is working to ensure they never happen.
At a board meeting this month, she said raising the alarm was part of the plan. She also pledged to consider equity when detailing potential cuts, making sure certain communities would not see disproportionate cuts.
“I don’t want people to worry here at CTA that that will happen, because we’re on the case and we’re working hard to make everyone understand the importance of transit,” she said.