The NFL playoffs are in full swing as the Divisional Round has arrived. Sunday night will see the most highly anticipated matchup of the weekend, as the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) face the Buffalo Bills (13-4). The stakes could not be higher for this contest, as MVP front-runners Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen battle for a spot in the AFC Championship. Let’s take a look at game predictions, best bet and player props to look out for Ravens vs. Bills on January 19.
NFL Divisional Round – Ravens vs. Bills Predictions
Betting Odds
Moneyline: Ravens (-118) vs. Bills (+100)
Spread: Ravens (-1.5) vs. Bills (+1.5)
Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-106)/Under 51.5 (-114)
Game Prediction & Best Bet
Ravens 27, Bills 24
While this game is truly a coin flip, the Ravens could win by the smallest margins. The Ravens have looked unstoppable over the second half of the season, dominating the Steelers 28-14 in the Wild Card round. They ran for an incredible 299 yards against one of the league’s best defensive units, with who else but Derrick Henry leading the charge.
Baltimore has destroyed playoff-bound teams this season and have won their last five games by 14 points or more. To put it simply, they are and have been the hottest team in the NFL for some time. Still, the Bills are no slouches either, particularly when they play at home. Buffalo went an impressive 8-0 at home this season, also holding the longest active home win streak in the league (11).
Both of these teams have been formidable, with two of if not the best quarterbacks in the league this season. Nonetheless, the Ravens have the more established run game. Playoff football relies so heavily on sustaining drives and time of possession, which requires success on the ground. While Allen and James Cook also form a solid rushing duo, the Ravens have the best rush defense in the league.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defensive unit is average at best, ranking 19th in opponent yards per rush. Frigid temperatures are also expected in Buffalo on Sunday, which could place greater significance on each team’s run game. With frozen conditions playing a factor, the under is something to monitor as teams should be running more often.
Ravens Moneyline (-118)
At almost even odds, Ravens moneyline is the best bet for this contest. It is certainly a risk taking Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen in the playoffs, but he could get over the hump this season. It’s no secret that the Ravens have faltered at this point of the playoffs in prior years.
However, Todd Monken is no longer the play-caller in Baltimore, as I expect the Ravens to stick to their run-first approach on Sunday. Let’s also not forget the Ravens’ 35-10 beatdown against the Bills earlier this year, where Jackson and Henry combined for 253 rushing yards. Yes, the Bills front seven were missing some key players for that game, but this rushing duo has simply ran over everyone this season.
Player Prop Bets
Derrick Henry 80+ Rushing Yards + Anytime TD (-105)
It’s pretty crazy that you can’t even get plus odds for this two-leg parlay, but King Henry has been that good this season. Henry cleared this stat line in 10/17 games this year, along with last week in the Wild Card round. In fact, Henry cashed this in a single play against the Bills in Week 4, ripping off an 87-yard touchdown on the game’s first snap. With snowy weather forecasted, Henry should carry the ball 20+ times in what could be a lower-scoring game than anticipated.
Khalil Shakir over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
This line is juiced, but Khalil Shakir has been Buffalo’s most consistent pass-catcher this season. Shakir has seen at least six targets since Week 6, recording 5+ receptions in 8/11 games. The Ravens pass defense allowed the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers this season. Shakir should be productive operating in the slot, as Allen will continue to rely on him in short-pass play situations.
Main Photo Courtesy of Tommy Gilligan – Imagn Images
The post Ravens vs. Bills Predictions – NFL Divisional Round appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football.