Tracking team health throughout the entire NFL by tracking the big plays!
Welcome to Week 11 of Toxic Differential Plus.
Click on the link above to get a more detailed explanation of the stat or roll with the equation below:
Explosive Play Differential + 2(Turnover Differential) + Sack Differential = Toxic Differential Plus
The Toxic Differential Plus stat loves the Buffalo Bills (+52) and can’t figure out the Kansas City Chiefs (-10). They squared off this weekend and the Bills won the game with a TD+ of +9. The game was close until a late Bills touchdown put it out of reach. I’m not sure how strong of a predictor TD+ can be in games as we move closer to the playoffs, but the Chiefs being 9-1 and in negative territory in the stat is the major headscratcher for this year’s tracker.
The 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2019 New England Patriots have the highest single season TD+ since at least 2006 with a score of +81. The Bills have six games left to challenge that mark.
The Detroit Lions (+36) have moved back into the top five, all the way to the number two spot, with another dominating performance and a +11 TD+ mark against the Jaguars. The Lions also had the year’s best single game TD+ score of +15. They also look like a juggernaut.
The Denver Broncos (+36) moved back into the top five with a strong performance. They sit at 6-5 with a couple of tough loses on their ledger. They’re about to go on a run here with games against the Raiders, Browns, and Colts. This is a playoff team.
Overall, the single game record of winning the Toxic Differential Plus continues to impress. Winning the TD+ by +1 or greater improved to 125-25 (83.33%) on the year. Winning the TD+ by +2 or more improved to 111-15, slightly over an 88% winning percentage. The aforementioned Chiefs own 3 of those 15 negative TD+ wins, which is part of what makes them such a headscratcher. No other team has more than one such win. The single-game results have been the biggest eye-opener in the inaugural year of tracking this week to week.
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