The Bills path to success against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 could potentially dictate how a second showdown could go in the post-season. Every game between the two rivals is a must-watch, especially since they’ve faced each other in the regular and postseason in each of the last four years.
In that time, Buffalo notched a 3-1 record against Andy Reid’s team during the regular season. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to victory in the first-ever meeting with Josh Allen. However, Allen and the Bills have won the last three regular-season meetings.
Last year’s in-season showdown included an infamous Bills victory after receiver Kadarius Toney lined up the neutral zone on a potential game-winning score. His penalty negated a historic play on which the Chiefs scored off a lateral from Travis Kelce to Toney.
The postseason resume is a much different story. The Chiefs won every time with the highest stakes, beating Buffalo in the team’s three meetings. Kansas City won a close game in Buffalo in the Divisional Round last season en route to its second Super Bowl victory in a row.
Here’s The Bills Path to Handing the Chiefs Their First Loss of the Season
A Different Chiefs Offensive Attack
Nearly every previous meeting between the AFC rivals featured high-scoring efforts. The once high-flying Chiefs offense, however, hasn’t appeared in 2024. Kansas City finished last year averaging 21.8 points per game. Here’s how the offense ranks through 10 games in 2024:
- Scoring – 11th, 24.3 points per game
- Passing – 9th, 231.6 yards per game
- Rushing – 21st, 115.1 yards per game
- Time of Possession – 1st, 33:22
After trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in 2022, Kansas City has lacked a true No. 1 receiver. Kelce picked up much of that slack, remaining one of the NFL’s top pass catchers regardless of position.
Starting last year, the Chiefs have utilized a diversified attack focusing on many targets instead of mainly two or three. Buffalo adopted that strategy in 2024 after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in the off-season.
Kelce leads the teams with 499 yards, but no other receiver has more than 25 receptions or 300 yards. Kansas City added DeAndre Hopkins at the trade deadline.
Kelce and Hopkins are clearly the biggest threats, so double coverage on one may force Mahomes to look elsewhere. Mahomes numbers are down but he’s still led the Chiefs to a 9-0 mark. He’s averaging 245.3 yards/game with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Defense turnin’ heads.
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Since Kansas City leads the NFL in time of possession, the defense must force the Chiefs offense into as many three-and-outs as possible. That’s a basic tenent, but is extremely important considering how close past games have been between the two teams.
The Bills defense doesn’t have to put up a huge effort as it did against (four turnovers, one TD) the Indianapolis Colts, but forcing at least two turnovers and scoring on ensuing drives off both would set up a Bills path to a huge win in Week 11.
Defense Leading the Charge
While Kansas City’s offense isn’t as potent as in the past, the defense has picked up any slack over the last two years. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad has traditionally been opportunistic but has clamped down on opponents in 2024:
- Passing Yards Allowed Per Game – 14th, 206.67
- Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game – 3rd, 83.22
- Total Yards Allowed Per Game – 4th, 289.89
- Points Per Game Allowed – 5th, 17.9
- Sacks on the Season – 26th, 19 sacks
On the surface, the Bills will face an uphill battle against the Chiefs defense. Kansas City clamps down on the run while limiting opponents to under 20 points a game. Ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in sacks, however, can help Buffalo’s offense.
The Bills offensive line can protect Allen, allowing him as much time as possible to find the open target. Amari Cooper has been limited in practice while Dalton Kincaid is trending toward not playing. Rooke receiver Keon Coleman has already been ruled out.
Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox have been dependable with and without Cooper and Coleman. In those games, Shakir leads the team in receiving. Knox had more success in the past but can be productive when needed. Buffalo will likely have to rely on a diversified passing attack against the Chiefs even more in Week 11.
Running With Purpose
Allen’s legs will become more important if the Chiefs secondary clamps down on Buffalo’s receivers. He doesn’t need to make a huge statement but may revert to his hero ball to do that. Buffalo also cannot abandon the run despite Kansas City ranking fourth in stopping it.
Utilizing its stable of backs in both phases could help pick up short yardage and sustain drives. Keeping James Cook fresh will help while Ray Davis and Ty Johnson can spell him or line up as receivers.
The Bills path to victory over the Chiefs will take 60 minutes of relatively clean football. The Bills chances of success increase the more they can sustain drives to keep Mahomes off the field. Taking advantage of opportunities will be paramount in Week 11 with the Chiefs defense leading the team to undefeated status.
Main Photo Courtesy of Grace Hollars – USA Today Network via Imagn Images
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