CHICAGO — We’re nearing 24 hours until the Chicago Bears take on the Houston Texans, and there are sure to be plenty of eyeballs taking in a matchup that features two of the NFL’s most highly touted young quarterbacks.
Here are four matchups that could tip the scales either way when the two teams take the field for Sunday night football.
Caleb Williams vs CJ Stroud
No matter how much Caleb Williams says he’s only drawing motivation from the Bears organization and his teammates to win this game, this quarterback matchup is the reason many have it circled on their calendars, and why the Bears are playing the Texans on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.
CJ Stroud, last year’s No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft and the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, picked up where he left things off at the end of last season in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Stroud completed 24 of 32 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover, which featured the former Ohio State Buckeye leading the Houston offense on what would turn out to be a game-winning touchdown drive with under five minutes to go in the fourth quarter at Indianapolis.
Back in Chicago, Williams, the most recent No. 1 overall pick and the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner (which he won over Stroud), struggled in his NFL debut, completing just 14 of 29 passes for 93 yards in what amounted to a 17-point comeback victory propelled by the Bears’ special teams and defense.
Cairo Santos went 3/3 on field goal attempts, including a 50-yarder, while Daniel Hardy blocked a punt that was returned for a touchdown by Jonathan Owens, and Tyrique Stevenson took a pick-six back to the house on the way to 24 unanswered points and a Chicago victory, all despite never scoring a touchdown on offense.
If Chicago wants to win this game, Williams doesn’t need to outperform Stroud, but he’ll need to make a significant leap forward from his Week 1 performance against the Titans.
How will the run game be featured?
The Bears offense in general never got going last week.
Week 1 saw Chicago distribute touches between four different running backs. When a team is moving so many guys in and out, it’s hard to establish the run or get any single one of them in rhythm.
D’Andre Swift, who general manager Ryan Poles signed to a three-year, $24 million deal over the offseason after he was selected to the 2023 Pro Bowl, notched 10 carries for 30 yards, while Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer and Velus Jones Jr. each ran the ball twice to middling results.
Of note, Swift had six runs where he gained two or fewer yards, four of which also went for negative yardage.
The Bears will need to run the ball and get Swift going without the negative rushing plays on early downs if they want to beat the Texans. In turn, if they can run the football, it should give Williams easier looks in the passing game as time goes on, given the growing trend of defenses leaning on two high safety looks.
When Eberflus was asked about the two high trend Friday, he emphasized how having a successful run game helps counter it.
“It’s been that way for a couple years now. I really believe it’s trying to eliminate the explosive play. That’s the reason why you do it and the reason why you’ve got to be able to run the football,” Eberflus said. “When you’ve got a lightbox like that, you’ve got to be able to run the ball.
“It’s important that you get that done to force … That safety to come down to make the box a little heavier for the run, and that’s when it opens up for all the play action. That’s the game we’re playing.”
Health concerns, target distribution and verticality in the pass game
A week ago, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze accounted for more than half of Williams’ targets on offense. By Friday, it was determined they would be a game-time decision on whether they could go against the Texans.
On top of Allen and Odunze’s injuries, there are also usage concerns that need to be addressed when it comes to DJ Moore and Cole Kmet.
Allen, Moore and Odunze made up 23 of 29 Williams’ targets last week but were only on the field together for ten snaps.
Moore’s number of targets was fine (8 targets, 27.6% target share), but his route tree was also limited to short-to-intermediate throws, unlike last year when he was used to stretch the field and get out into open space where he’s most dangerous.
Kmet, the team’s top tight end and a team captain, had one catch on one target for 4 yards after averaging 5.3 targets per game during a career year last season where he caught 73 passes for 719 yards and six touchdowns.
“We know that Cole’s one of the top tight ends in the league. He’s done a great job for us. He’s done nothing but the right thing ever since I’ve been around,” said offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Thursday. “So that’s more so on us, and me, to get him the reps.
“But it also goes back to playing efficient football [and] we’re doing that, we’re not going to get tilted out of the ways we want to play the game.”
Finding ways to cater to Moore’s speed in open space, while working the middle of the field more often with Kmet could stretch the field and provide more space in the passing game, and if the passing game opens up, the Texans’ secondary could be ripe for exploitation.
Houston’s defense gave up three plays of 50-plus yards against the Colts last week, and left several bigger plays on the table had quarterback Anthony Richardson not missed a few throws throughout the game.
Derek Stingley is a shutdown corner type for the Texans, but rookie Kamaree Lassiter will start opposite of him on defense. If one or both of Allen and Odunze is/are deemed healthy ahead of the game, they could test Lassiter on the outside and give Williams a favorable 1-on-1 matchup.
Texans pass rush
Something that’s clear with Williams and the pass game is that he’s comfortable operating in empty sets. Take that and combine it with the prevailing narrative offensive coaches need to incorporate easy ways to get young quarterbacks going, and it’s reasonable to expect the Bears to drop everyone and go five-wide a bit on Sunday night.
Where that could become tricky is along the perimeter of the trenches.
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson will present a much tougher challenge for Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright during Week 2, even though Eberflus was pleased with the offensive line’s performance last week.
Especially Wright’s.
“I thought Darnell played really well. I thought it was a good performance,” Eberflus said. “I thought he was aggressive and good in his pass sets. The run game demeanor was good. I thought he had a really good performance.”
Hunter and Anderson were both selected to the Pro Bowl a year ago, with Hunter racking up 16.5 sacks compared to Anderson’s 7.
To subvert that pass rush combo, Wright and Jones will need to hold their own, while Williams will need to take the layups, throw on time, and do so quickly from the pocket.
At this point, teams are aware of how good Williams is when he operates off-schedule. The bootlegs and rollouts will come as no surprise and could play to his detriment when facing a pass rush that features the likes of Hunter and Anderson.
On top of establishing the run to bring safeties into the box, stretching the field in the passing game and taking advantage of 1-on-1 matchups outside, whether Williams stands tall in the pocket and looks more like Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes on the rollout could be another one of those factors that decide whether the Bears win or lose.
The Chicago Bears will kick off against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday at 7:20 p.m. CT