The Bears control more draft power than all but five teams despite not drafting until #10. What does this class look like from a more universal vantage point.
Every year, I make myself engage in a mock draft where I try to “win the draft” for each team as an exercise in understanding the new influx of players about to join the NFL. In constructing this mock draft, I used my own understanding of each team’s needs, major services’ perceptions, and local or fan outlets. When there was conflict, I defaulted to local and fan outlets’ as the ones most likely to be dialed in.
Early Excitement
As usual, a small amount of shuffling at the top of the draft creates implications for the rest of the teams. I tried to avoid trades unless it seemed that both teams legitimately benefitted, and as a result there are very few dramatic swings.
1) Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward, QB (Miami): Nothing to see here.
2) Cleveland Browns – Shedeur Sanders, QB (Colorado State): After extending Garrett they need a playable quarterback more than they need Carter.
3) New York Giants– Travis Hunter, CB/WR (Colorado State): Arguably the best player left for a team with deep needs.
4) New England Patriots – Will Campbell, OL (LSU): They need help for Drake Maye after devoting free agency to the defense.
5) TRADE TO CAROLINA- Abdul Carter, ED (Penn State): Abdul Carter has now fallen into the range where multiple teams see him as worth bidding on, and with Walker and Hines-Allen, the Jaguars have bigger needs–and the chance to fill those needs so long as they don’t shuffle down too far. This means that the Falcons are out, and in this scenario the Panthers win the right to move up. #5 is too pricey for #8 and #74 to cover entirely, but swap of future picks (with Carolina giving up their 2026 second-rounder while acquiring Jacksonville’s 2026 third-rounder) allows them to overpay by 2% while hanging on to #57.
6) Las Vegas Raiders – Tetairoa McMillan, WR (Arizona): It makes more sense for the Raiders to get the receiver at the top of the class than it does to take a running back early in a class that’s deep with talent.
7) New York Jets – Armand Membou, OT (New York Jets): I imagine a rush to the podium and a sigh of relief from Justin Fields
8) Jacksonville Jaguars – Mason Graham, DT (Michigan): They end up with the player they need, but with extra draft capital to spend later on.
9) TRADE TO DALLAS – Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State): Here, Jerry Jones wants to get ahead of the Chicago Bears to get the dominant running back of the class. #12, #76, and #204 line up almost perfectly with the value of #9 and #112. So at the cost of swapping a third and a sixth for a fourth, the Cowboys get their Bronco.
10) TRADE TO INDIANAPOLIS -Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State): Did Poles and Johnson get scooped, perhaps twice, with Carter and Jeanty? Or are they letting the board come to them now that they’ve filled the major holes. Either way, Indianapolis needs a tight end, and they get the best one in the draft and they don’t even need to pay for it this year. Giving Chicago their second-rounder for 2026 makes up almost the entire difference (short by only 0.77%) in this trade, and Ryan Poles and Ian Cunningham say “Close enough”.
11) San Francisco 49ers – Shemar Stewart, ED (Texas A&M): I went back and forth on whether this should be Banks or Stewart, and ultimately I went with Stewart’s physical profile instead of the third offensive lineman in a relatively weak class.
12) New Orleans Saints – Will Johnson, CB (Michigan): The Saints need a corner and Johnson fell into their lap, though they had a safety cushion with Barron Still available.
13) Miami Dolphins – Kelvin Banks, OL (Texas): This feels like a perfect fit as Banks has the potential to grow into whatever the Dolphins need him to be.
14) Chicago Bears – Omarion Hampton, RB (UNC): Unable to trade down, Poles could take Mykel Williams or indulge in his love of defensive backs by going after Emmanwori or Starks. Instead, he makes the controversial decision to take the second running back to go in the first round. Jahmyr Gibbs was the last time that happened. Who was the offensive coordinator in Detroit back then?
Speaking of “back then,” Hampton love is not new from Bears’ fans.
I know he’s not in this class but just trust me and bookmark this one: Omarion Hampton (RB, UNC) is a dude. Love his ability to anticipate and run through contact.
— EJ Snyder (@FootballEJ) February 13, 2024
15) Atlanta Falcons – Jalon Walker, ED (Georgia): He would fit like a glove with what they need if he fell to them here.
16) Arizona Cardinals – Jihaad Campbell, LB (Alabama): The Cardinals could use a versatile linebacker and he happens to be the best one in the draft.
17) Cincinnati Bengals – Mykel Williams, ED (Georgia): This feels slightly low for Williams, but when I look over the other selections I can see it happening.
18) Seattle Seahawks – Tyler Booker, IOL (Alabama): Don’t ask Sam Darnold if this is an overdraft.
Playoff Teams Reload
Realistically, there will probably be a shuffle somewhere in here as well, but the board fell in the favor of most of these teams, and I didn’t want to speculate on a move without a sound basis beyond the desire for activity.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Green, ED (Marshall): This feels like a draft for need filled with concerns over history either answered or overlooked.
20) Denver Broncos – Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan): Without Tyler Warren, Loveland could easily have been the only tight end who goes in the top half of the first round.
21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Jaxson Dart, QB (Mississippi): Dart is a bit of a reach, but the biggest question marks around him involve the way he will need help from his receivers in the pros. The Steelers have two of the best in the league as of now, but no triggerman.
22) Los Angeles Chargers – Matthew Golden, WR (Texas): The Chargers need a wide receiver and Golden is one of the more versatile weapons in this class.
23) Green Bay Packers – Jahdae Barron, CB (Texas): Somehow the Packers always seem to have good defensive backs fall to them at advantageous times.
24) Minnesota Vikings – Nick Emmanwori, S (South Carolina): I made the decision between Emmanwori and Starks on the basis of who I would like less in the division, and Emmanwori won. Not that Starks would have made things easy on anyone.
25) Houston Texans – Josh Simmons, OT (Ohio State): After taking one gamble by sending away Laremy Tunsil, the Texans take another by hoping his knee is healed. If so, they get a bargain.
26) Los Angeles Rams – Carson Schwesinger, LB (UCLA): A lot of players make sense here for the Rams, and I can see them wanting to shuffle down and collect extra value. Presuming nothing like that emerges, the Butkus Award-finalist makes more sense than CB4, at least in my opinion.
27) Baltimore Ravens – Josh Conerly, OL (Oregon): The rich get richer, here. Conerly is a talented offensive lineman with agile feet, and while his play strength and technique can use improvement, Baltimore knows how to develop players.
28) Detroit Lions – James Pearce Jr., ED (Tennessee): Look, I’m not happy about it, but his motor makes him a fit for the reigning divisional champs.
29) Washington Commanders – Malaki Starks, S (Georgia): A lot of options make sense here for the Commanders, but teams that surge don’t maintain momentum by reaching. Starks is the best player left on the board and Mike Sainsritil only had two interceptions last year–and that led Washington. Prior to the Deebo Samuel move, this would have been Luther Burden.
30) Buffalo Bills – Kenneth Grant, DT (Michigan): Oh look, the Bills’ defense is getting more terrifying. Great.
31) Kansas City Chiefs – Walter Nolen, DT (Mississippi): Defensive line help for the AFC Champs makes sense, and this could just as easily be Harmon.
32) Philadelphia Eagles – Grey Zabel, OL (North Dakota State): How the Eagles managed to have Zabel fall to them here is more than moderately annoying.
Draft Depth Comes to Light
After the second round, it becomes much harder for teams to find starters. This is where drafts distinguish themselves from one another.
33) Cleveland Browns – Emeka Egbuka, WR (Ohio State): I can’t see Cleveland going with Burden when local star Egbuka is available.
34) New York Giants – Quinn Ewers, QB (Texas): Having passed on taking a quarterback in the first round, the Giants are forced to pick between Ewers and Milroe. I can see this going either way.
35) Tennessee TItans – Luther Burden, WR (Missouri): Tennessee is putting together a pretty good draft, pairing a promising quarterback with an excellent receiver who can grow with him.
36) Jacksonville Jaguars – Shavon Revel, CB (East Carolina): One draft can’t fix a defense, but the Jaguars should see improvement at this point.
37) Las Vegas Raiders- Maxwell Hairston, CB (Kentucky): Hairston is a steal for the Raiders here, but this is a deep draft for adequate defensive backs.
38) New England Patriots – Elic Ayomanor, WR (Stanford): It’s a smart move to continue building the offense around Maye, and Ayomanor has tons of potential.
39) Chicago Bears- Nic Scourton, ED (Texas A&M): I’m surprised he’s still here for Chicago at #39, but looking back over the board I’m reminded that a number of Edge defenders with comparable grades are in this draft.
40) New Orleans Saints – Jalen Milroe, QB (Alabama): Perhaps controversial, but the Saints are not happy with Carr even though the cap has forced them to commit to him temporarily. One of the only ways out of this pit is to get a quarterback on a price-controlled contract, and being able to sit for a year behind Carr with low pressure should let Milroe work on adapting his game to the pros.
41) Chicago Bears – Xavier Watts, S (Notre Dame): Chicago has a sneaky need at safety, and the ball hawk will not have to travel far from South Bend for his new home.
42) New York Jets – Tre Harris, WR (Mississippi): Aaron Glenn needs assets, and Harris should be able to get open for Fields.
43) San Francisco 49ers – Derrick Harmon, DL (Oregon): If adding Harmon on the inside doesn’t help Shemar Stewart’s production, nothing will.
44) Dallas Cowboys – Elijah Arroyo, TE (Miami): They still need weapons, and Arroyo grades out much higher for me than the remaining wide receivers.
45) Indianapolis Colts – Donovan Jackson, IOL (Ohio State): The Colts have a need at guard and Jackson will make a good one if he has even the smallest bit of help.
46) Atlanta Falcons – Donovan Ezeiruaku, ED (Boston College): After years of searching for pass rush, the Falcons get a chance to double-dip at the position. I can see an argument for other moves here, but this is just good value at a position of sustained need.
47) Arizona Cardinals – Jonah Savaiinaea, OL (Arizona): Savaiinaea is an intriguing prospect to help the Cardinals take the next step forward, and so the Wildcat becomes a Cardinal without leaving the state.
48) Miami Dolphins – Tyleik Williams, DL (Ohio State): Miami invests in the other side of the trenches.
Contenders look for that final piece
Here the teams with a winning record (and the Panthers) make selections to try to put themselves over the top. In the case of the Eagles, they are trying to stay on top.
49) Cincinnati Bengals- Tate Ratledge, OL (Georgia): Joe Burrow needs time.
50) Seattle Seahawks – Jayden Higgins, WR (Iowa State): There are many possibilities at receiver here.
51) Denver Broncos – TreVeyon Henderson, RB (Ohio State): Arguably the best pass-blocking running back in the draft goes to play for Sean Payton.
52) Seattle Seahawks – Benjamin Morrison, CB (Notre Dame): Or maybe Aareye’h Thomas.
53) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Azareye’h Thomas, CB (Florida State): Or Benjamin Morris.
54) Green Bay – Jalen Royals, WR (Utah State): Royals will be frustratingly useful for the Pack.
55) LA Chargers – Harold Fannin, TE (Bowling Green): I can see Fannin being a dangerous weapon for Herbert.
56) Buffalo Bills – Landon Jackson, ED (Arkansas): The defensive line in Buffalo gets stronger still.
57) Carolina Panthers – Tez Johnson, WR (Oregon): Young is grateful that the Panthers held on to this pick.
58) Houston Texans – Alfred Collins, DT (Texas): There sure seem to be a number of interior linemen available in this draft.
59) Baltimore Ravens – Princely Umanmielen, ED (Mississippi): Check out Jacob’s interview.
60) Detroit Lions – Wyatt Milum, OL (West VIrginia): The Lions understand the value of always investing up front.
61) Washington Commanders – J.T. Tuimoloau, ED (Ohio State): After missing out on the first pass of edge rushers, the Commanders get a difference-maker from the national champions.
62) Buffalo Bills – Tre Amos, CB (Mississippi): Arguably it makes sense for this to be one of the remaining wide receivers.
63) Kansas City Chiefs – Cameron Williams, OT (Texas): The Chiefs need to start developing the outside of the line.
64) Philadelphia Eagles – Darius Alexander, DL (Toledo): The Eagles’ interior rotation stays fresh.
Summary
To be clear, I don’t pretend that this resembles what will really happen. However, as I try to get my head around this draft class and try to understand where the strengths and weaknesses of this class line up with the team needs, I feel like something like this is reasonable.