Fantasy Football championship teams are not necessarily won in the first round of drafts, but the best rosters are built in the later rounds. There is nothing more satisfying than nailing a late-round sleeper. It is the keen managers who know how to navigate and dissect the data and find the fantasy sleeper who smashes their ADP. Whether you won a high-stakes fantasy championship or are a recreational player who won your home league, be proactive. Savvy players are always looking for an edge to stay ahead of the competition. The time is now to begin building your 2025 draft plans. It is a necessary grind to afford managers the best chance to build a championship. Today’s focus will be on how to dissect and navigate fantasy data to find the aforementioned late-round sleepers.
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Finding The Late-Round Fantasy Football Sleeper
Using Positive Regression To Find A Fantasy Football Sleeper
The first fantasy football data point that we will touch on is the expected number versus the actual number. This data point was discussed multiple times in the fantasy takeaways article series formulated earlier in March. For example, Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride. The player himself is not a late-round fantasy sleeper, but we can use McBride’s actual touchdowns versus expected to further explain. For reference, we consider the final third of a fantasy draft to be the later rounds.
Touchdowns are nearly impossible to predict and can not be counted on week in and week out in fantasy football. However, positive regression can be a useful fantasy indicator. McBride was first among fantasy tight ends in target share, targets per game, and red zone targets. His expected touchdown total was between eight and nine, but his actual number was just two. The data is telling us he is due for positive touchdown regression based on the same expected volume.
Translation: Look for late-round fantasy players coming off a lower-than-expected touchdown total.
Target Running Backs In Muddled Backfields
Another effective strategy when looking for late-round sleepers is to target running backs going in the later rounds on a team where no clear RB1 is evident. Translation: Target that team’s running back with the lower ADP in drafts.
A good example of this was last season’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rachaad White was drafted as a top-14 fantasy running back in 2024 drafts, yet his teammate Bucky Irving was going in the 12th round. The post-NFL draft buzz on Irving was that he had the potential to end up as the Buccaneers’ lead back. Fantasy managers using this strategy and selecting Irving were rewarded, and he finished as a near RB1 at RB13 overall. Now, to be fair, White still finished as a top 22 running back, but he did not pay off his ADP. That is the point here!
Target cheaper running backs in muddy backfields.
Final Thoughts
The final point is to be smart at both ends of fantasy drafts. The early rounds are not about taking risks; they are about building the foundation of your fantasy team. In this case, spending draft capital on muddled backfields is not sound. In essence, you are buying all the risk on a player. Instead, wait, and then later take the player that statistically has the better chance of outperforming their ADP.
Don’t take unnecessary risks early in drafts.
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