4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.
Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.
Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.
I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.
Sunday January 19th – 3:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
You know who is Sean McVay’s coaching kryptonite? Vic Fangio.
Saquon Barkley goes for 150+ and Fangio’s top ranked unit harasses Matthew Stafford all afternoon. This is the weekend’s blowout, and I’ll lay the points.
Sunday January 19th – 6:30 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
There are two things true about this game.
First, I don’t see a scenario where Sean McDermott can stop Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry from running the ball right down the throats of the Buffalo defense.
Second, I don’t care. Is this a heart bet? Yes. I’ll be rooting hard for the Bills to win a title this season and I actually believe this is the biggest hurdle they have left to face. If I was being asked to lay points here, I would spend time arguing with my inner, gambling self. But since I’m not, I’ll take the points, and bank on Josh Allen doing enough heroic things to send the Bills to Kansas City (again).