The NFL playoffs have arrived, as Wild Card weekend sees six matchups square off for a spot in the Divisional Round. Sunday night will see a showdown between the Washington Commanders (12-5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7). This matchup should be a fun one to watch, with high-powered offenses on both sides. Let’s take a look at game predictions, best bet, and player props to look out for Commanders vs. Buccaneers on January 12.
NFL Wild Card Round – Commanders vs. Buccaneers Predictions
Betting Odds
Moneyline: Commanders (+136) vs. Buccaneers (-162)
Spread: Commanders (+3) vs. Buccaneers (-3)
Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-105)/Under 50.5 (-115)
Game Prediction & Best Bet
Commanders 27, Buccaneers 24
These two teams’ only meeting came during Week 1 of the season. The Buccaneers convincingly beat the Commanders 37-20 in Jayden Daniels’ first career NFL start, but Washington is a much different team now. Daniels has exceeded all expectations in his rookie campaign and is the overwhelming favorite to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year. The LSU product has had some memorable moments this season, as the Commanders clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2020.
Regardless of the outcome, this game sets up to be a great watch. Both teams rank top-six in yards per game, while also having weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. While Daniels rushed for an astounding 891 yards in his rookie season, he will have the biggest advantage through the air on Sunday against a depleted Buccaneers secondary. The Buccaneers rank 29th against quarterbacks this season, allowing 243 passing yards per game. They are also dealing with several key injuries, with CB Jordan Whitehead already ruled out. While Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have had a respectable season, I think the wrong team is favored here. Daniels should utilize his dual-threat ability to help Washington pull off the upset and win their first playoff game since 2005.
Over 50.5 (-105 on Fanduel)
This is the largest point total of any game on Wild Card weekend. Nonetheless, I still favor the over here due to these two high-powered offenses and lackluster defenses. Washington has a solid secondary, but they rank 30th in rushing yards per game allowed (137.5). This could be exploited by rookie sensation Bucky Irving, who has been one of the most exciting running backs in the league over the last half of the season. Baker Mayfield’s season also cannot be overlooked, throwing the third-most passing yards (4500) and tied second-most passing touchdowns (41). Both of these teams have shown the ability to score at will this season. I’d be willing to bet that a prime-time shootout is on our hands Sunday night.
Player Prop Bets
Jalen McMillan Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Jalen McMillan has been an elite playmaker down the stretch. The rookie wideout has recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of his last five games, scoring seven touchdowns over that period. McMillan’s hot streak is difficult to ignore, despite the Commanders boasting a fairly strong secondary. Additionally, fellow wide receiver Mike Evans will have to face his arch-nemesis Marshon Lattimore on Sunday, who he has struggled against in the past. With Evans potentially locked up, I’ll gladly take McMillan’s over in what should be a fast-paced game.
Jayden Daniels over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
While Daniels should utilize his arm against the Buccaneers secondary, I expect he’ll have to use his legs as well on some broken pass plays and QB draws. The Buccaneers defense has the third-highest Blitz rate in the league, which could have Daniels scrambling more than usual. In Week 1, Daniels rushed a season-high 16 times against the Buccaneers and has had at least 9 rush attempts in 4/5 games. I expect Daniels to make plays both in the air and on the ground on Sunday.
Main Image: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA Today Sports
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