The Bears own an 11-8 record against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, including wins in the last three contests. If they want to extend that streak to 4 while simultaneously ending their current 5-game losing streak this season, these players will be key.
The NFL season is an evolving state of affairs. So much can and does change from week to week. Teams, schemes, Hot Seat Head Coaches, and injuries all factor into performances on any given Sunday.
In this weekly series, I’ll be featuring one player from each team on each side of the ball who I figure to be integral to their respective teams’ success. You won’t see any QBs as they are, in my opinion, the most critical position in all of sports and, thereby, an obvious choice. You also won’t see any star defensive players like Myles Garret or TJ Watt. Again, too obvious.
No, these are more of the unsung variety. Yet, often just as critical to the success of the team.
Let’s get started with the Chicago Bears.
Offense: Cole Kmet, TE
In his 8 career games against the Lions, Cole Kmet has accumulated 28 catches for 295 yards and 4 TDs while his Bears have gone 4-4 vs. the divisional rival. His 4 touchdowns against the Lions are the most against any one opponent in his four-year career. In his last two games since Thomas Brown took over play calling duties, Kmet has been targeted 13 times with 10 catches for 106 yards. He will be key in this matchup both as a receiver and a blocker in the run game. Though starting MLB Alex Anzalone is out, second-year pro Jack Campbell has been filling in and is the better pass defender, so Kmet will have his work cut out for him. In fact, the Lions have the best defense in the league when it comes to limiting opposing TEs, having given up merely 305 TOTAL yards and 1(!) TD all season to the position.
If Caleb and Coach Brown can find ways to get Cole involved, we have a much better chance at controlling the clock and putting up points against the Lions. If not, extra pressure will be added on Caleb and his WR’s shoulders, which could lead to forcing the ball into an opportunistic defense’s hands and a long afternoon before the main dish is served this Thanksgiving. Cole’s success will be a key ingredient.
Defense: Kyler Gordon, CB
After being inactive due to a hamstring injury for two consecutive weeks, Kyler “Spiderman” Gordon returned against the Patriots a few weeks back and has been rounding into form ever since. Against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, the 6’0”, 200lb Nickel and former Washington Husky made his first appearance in this column and proceeded to struggle, especially in coverage against the Pack. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, however, was a different story as he had arguably his strongest performance of the season and led the entire team in PFF rankings (see below), and made an impact in both the run and pass game.
We will need a similar effort out of Spidey this week against the Lions as he figures to be lined up in the slot against Amon-Ra St. Brown, who leads the team in catches and targets while also being relied upon in run support to slow down Sonic (Jahmyr Gibbs) and Knuckles (David Montgomery.) If he can have a similar impact as he did last week against the Vikings, while also providing some pass rush, we have a shot at slowing down the Lions high-powered offense. If not, expect the chants for Ben Johnson to be heard from Soldier Field.
The highest-graded Bears in Week 12 vs the Vikings:
Kyler Gordon – 90.9
Gervon Dexter Sr. – 87.9
DeMarcus Walker – 79.5
Teven Jenkins – 77.4
Darnell Wright – 77.0(min. 25 snaps) pic.twitter.com/UrWPVchDvP
— PFF CHI Bears (@PFF_Bears) November 25, 2024
And now on to the Lions
Offense: David Montgomery, RB
Now before I even get into this one and listen to anyone whine about how we let Monty go to a rival, let us first remember that Poles did offer Montgomery a contract to return. Whether reports of it being a better offer than he ultimately signed is true or not, the reality is he chose to go elsewhere. As a former RB myself, I can’t blame him for extending his career and choosing to run behind arguably the league’s best offensive line with the Detroit Lions. Also can’t blame him for being tired of losing. He went 25-41 in his four years in Chicago. He has already won 22 times in less than two seasons with Detroit. And that number will easily eclipse his total as a Bear before season’s end but let’s hope it is put on hold one week longer.
If you have read any of these articles, you may have noticed that RB is the most common position featured in our opponents’ offensive selections. Considering our struggling run D is without its best run stopper in Andrew Billings, it may get a lot worse before it gets better. Montgomery will be playing with added motivation against his former team. A team that SHOULD have won both games against his Lions last season but ended up splitting the season series where Monty had 22 carries for 142 yards and a TD along with 5 catches for 41 yards and another TD. If Gibbs and Monty do what Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs did the last couple weeks, this could be a beat down of the most demoralizing fashion. If we can slow them down, Monty especially, we may have a chance to keep our streak alive against the Lions on Thanksgiving and pull off the upset.
The last time Dan Campbell used this phrasing on David Montgomery, it led to this sickass Coachspeak Index shoutout from @FieldYates on ESPN, just two months after we launched
Montgomery ended up playing and turned 34 touches into 141 yards and 3 TDs https://t.co/bCOLBy3jem pic.twitter.com/oaVM5ViH62
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 26, 2024
Defense: Kerby Joseph, S
The former 3rd rounder out of Illinois is having a career year in 2024 like my selection last week from Minnesota, Andrew Van Ginkel. Joseph is 1 INT away from reaching the total in his first two seasons combined with 8 (!). Without top Edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson, Detroit’s pass D is a bit more manageable, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by watching them. Defensive Coordinator, and potential Chicago Bears Head Coach of the future, Aaron Glenn has his unit playing at an elite level. In fact, they have not allowed a single touchdown after halftime since the BYE week and have not allowed multiple touchdown passes to an opponent ALL SEASON. Joseph is a key part of that with his 7 picks and 9 pass deflections. If Caleb can avoid the ball hawk on the back end and spread the ball around, we have the weapons to hang with any offense and should be able to do the same on Thursday.
If the Lions’ dominance continues, not only will Lions Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson remain atop most fans’ lists for potential head coaches, but current Bears OC Thomas Brown will likely slide down a notch with a disappointing performance.
Recap from Week 12 (and bonus in-season recap):
Bears O – Rome Odunze, WR: Rome didn’t make his first catch until late in the first half and was 4th on the team in catches (5) and yards (39).
Bears D – Jaylon Johnson, CB: Failed to make an impact play aside from two PI penalties, but did help in limiting Justin Jefferson to a season low in catches (2) and yards (27).
Vikes O – Brian O’Neill, RT: Helped the Vikings accumulate nearly 500 yards of offense and 30 points while allowing only 3 sacks as a team.
Vikes D – Andrew Van Ginkel, OLB: With 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD and 2 QBH, Van Ginkel was a thorn in the offenses side all day.
There is 0 chance of a Bears win when all 4 players perform in a way that favors the opponent. What about when it’s mixed? I went back at each week’s PTW selections and here’s what I found:
Week 1: Shelton, Jaylon, Pollard, Snead – Bears split the difference and barely won. W
Week 2: Braxton, Brisker, Mixon, Edwards – Only Brisker showed up and we lost. L
Week 3: Swift, Edmunds, Pierce, Paye – Maybe Edmunds only. L
Week 4: Roschon, Edwards, Atwell, Fiske – We split the difference and barely won. W
Week 5: Hurricane Helene
Week 6: Keenan, Sweat, Tank, Travon – All four in our favor. Big win. W
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Rome, Byard, Biadasz, Newton – Maybe Rome? L
Week 9: Kmet, Gervon, McBride, Budda – None in our favor. L
Week 10: Bates, Pickens, Stevenson, White – Bates alone in our favor. L
Week 11: DJ, Gordon, Jacobs, Clark – 2/4 almost worked again. L
Week 12: Rome, Jaylon, O’Neill, Van Ginkel – 1/4 if we count Jaylon. L
We need at least half in our favor in order to have a shot. Otherwise, expect the L.
What about you? Who are some key players to watch this week against the Lions?