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Bills vs. Colts Preview: Can Buffalo Avoid Trap Game Letdown?

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Bills Colts

The Buffalo Bills (7-2) earned an important win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 9 and a marquee matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs lurks in Week 11. It makes Sunday’s clash with the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) a quintessential trap game for the AFC East leaders.

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills are also dealing with continued injury issues. Allen is one of 19 players listed on this week’s injury report. That’s 35.8 percent of the team’s 53-man roster. Not all of them are in danger of missing the game, but it’s a concern that’s been growing since training camp.

Meanwhile, the Colts are trying to remain in the AFC playoff picture after back-to-back losses to the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings. Their schedule does get more favorable down the stretch, but a three-game stretch featuring the Bills, New York Jets and Detroit Lions will test their postseason viability.

Buffalo and Indianapolis are slated for a 1 p.m. kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. Television coverage is on CBS.

Bills-Colts Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 10)

X-Factors

Bills: EDGE Von Miller

Miller returned from a four-game suspension against the Dolphins but failed to make an impact. He recorded one assisted tackle, no sacks and no quarterback hits in 21 snaps.

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The future Hall of Famer’s lack of production is something to monitor. He was one of the NFL’s worst players in 2023 after returning from a torn ACL. He finished with just three total tackles and no sacks despite making 12 appearances.

Miller looked better to open the 2024 campaign, tallying three sacks in four games before the suspension. It was the type of game-changing involvement the Bills expected consistently when they signed the veteran edge-rusher to a six-year, $120 million contract in 2022.

Buffalo uses a committee approach on the edge led by Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who’ve combined for 8.5 sacks. Rousseau and Epenesa are also involved in stopping the run, though. Miller’s only job is rushing the passer. He’s essentially useless if he’s not doing that effectively.

The eight-time Pro Bowler deserves some leeway since he was returning from a month-long absence, and also because he started the season so well. A chance to attack a stationary pocket passer like the Colts’ Joe Flacco is a nice bounce-back opportunity.

If Miller struggles again, however, don’t be surprised if rookie Javon Solomon starts eating into his playing time moving forward.

Colts: RB Jonathan Taylor

Stopping the run is the Bills’ Achilles heel. Few players in the NFL are better equipped to expose that weakness than Taylor, who’s capable of handling 25-plus carries, if needed.

Buffalo is tied for 25th in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.8). It’s coming off a game where the Miami tandem of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for 119 yards on 22 carries (5.4 YPC). They nearly helped the Dolphins pull off an upset.

The Bills added two defensive tackles this week: Quinton Jefferson and Jordan Phillips. While both have played in Buffalo’s scheme before, it’s unclear how much they’ll play this week. Neither one was having a good season before their respective releases, either. Jefferson had a 50.7 Pro Football Focus grade with the Cleveland Browns and Phillips posted a 29.6 PFF grade as a member of the Dallas Cowboys.

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So, it’s a full green light for Taylor and the Colts’ ground game.

The 2021 NFL rushing champion is coming off a lackluster performance against the Vikings, tallying a modest 48 yards on 13 attempts. His previous four games were far more effective: 76 carries for 406 yards (5.3 YPC) and four touchdowns.

If Indianapolis is going to win Sunday it must control the clock and limit the number of possessions. The more the game becomes a shootout, the more if favors Buffalo. That could mean extra touches for reserve running backs Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson, as well.

Ultimately, Taylor will be the most important player on the field Sunday not named Allen.

Key Matchup

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Colts CB Kenny Moore II

Buffalo’s wide receiver room is banged up. Amari Cooper (wrist), Keon Coleman (wrist), Mack Hollins (shoulder) and Curtis Samuel (pectoral) are all dealing with injuries. Coleman seems most likely to miss Sunday’s contest, but those that play may still be hindered.

In turn, the already heavy burden on Shakir’s shoulder may increase even further. He’s garnered 24 targets over the past three games and turned those opportunities into 22 catches for 222 yards. It’s clear Allen trusts him the most in key situations, especially third downs.

Shakir is also starting to get some well-deserved attention nationally. A lot of that stems from the fact his catch percentage is 93.3, which is fourth in the NFL and by far the highest among wide receivers, per Pro Football Reference. The next-highest wideout is the Chiefs’ Rashee Rice at 82.8 percent.

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The 24-year-old Boise State product should be in for double digit targets on Sunday. He faces a tough counterpart in the form of Moore, the Colts’ nickel cornerback, though. It’ll probably be the most competitive matchup on the field.

Moore has recorded 41 total tackles, three passes defended, a fumble recovery and a half-sack across seven games this season. He’s also accumulated a strong 80.5 PFF grade. It puts him on track to potentially earn his second Pro Bowl appearance. The first came in 2021.

His ability to slow down Shakir would aid a Colts defense that’s been far better at home. Indianapolis gives up just 5.2 yards per play at Lucas Oil Stadium compared to 6.0 YPP on the road.

The Colts need to keep this game in the 20s, if not lower, to maximize their chances of an upset.

Final Score Prediction: 23-21 Bills

The Bills are the better team, but switching the Flacco gives the Colts’ offense less downside risk and their defense is better in front of the Indianapolis faithful. Those two factors combined with the fact the contest is sandwiched between two key ones for Buffalo makes it a true trap game.

That said, the Bills have mostly done well in similar situations throughout the Allen Era. The one exception came in 2021 when they lost 9-6 to a 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars squad in between games against division rivals (Jets and Dolphins).

Buffalo is otherwise typically able to escape the traps. That’s in large part because Allen can single-handedly take over games when the team as a whole isn’t playing its best. A lot of franchises don’t have that luxury.

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As for the Colts, it typically takes at least nine wins to make the playoffs in the AFC. Sometimes 10. So, even accounting for a softer schedule in the final month, they likely need to secure at least one victory from their current stretch of three tough games to reach the postseason.

This is a winnable one for the underdogs. Buffalo is trying to overcome injuries, and its biggest weakness plays right into Indianapolis’ biggest strength. An effective rushing attack to control the clock should at least ensure the game is at least close in the fourth quarter.

It’s hard to pick against the Bills given how well they’re playing right now, but don’t expect a blowout. This one should come down to the final few possessions.

Main Image: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

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