Like clockwork, every year the NFL turns over about half of the playoff field from the previous season. There were six teams that made the playoffs in 2022 that failed to reach the postseason the following year — including the Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, Giants, Vikings and Seahawks. History says another six teams or more will fail to make the playoffs for a consecutive season.
Injuries will play a role, especially to starting quarterbacks. Last year, you would have been laughed at if you had forecasted the Bengals and QB Joe Burrow to miss the playoffs, but that’s exactly what happened. The NFL is also built to be ruthlessly competitive, with razor-thin margins and few cupcake matchups. Parity is a feature of the league that gives the bad teams hope and acts as a warning for the good teams not to get too comfortable.
Here’s a look ahead at six teams who could be sacrificed to the gods of parity, and the six who could rise to take their place:
| 2023 NFL Playoff Field | ||
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
| 1 | Ravens | 49ers |
| 2 | Bills | Cowboys |
| 3 | Chiefs | Lions |
| 4 | Texans | Buccaneers |
| 5 | Browns | Eagles |
| 6 | Dolphins | Rams |
| 7 | Steelers | Packers |
AFC
Out: Cleveland Browns
The Browns caught lightning in a bottle with QB Joe Flacco’s performance last year, staunching the bleeding after quarterback injuries, as well as injuries overall, hit the team hard. Navigating through those to still reach the playoffs is a big reason Browns HC Kevin Stefanski won the coach of the year award in 2023. The team expects to be in the postseason for a second straight year with the hopeful return of a healthy QB Deshaun Watson.
The catch is Watson hasn’t been outstanding even when he’s been in the lineup and not injured. At this point, the onus is on him to still prove he can be as effective as he was before derailing his career with off-field scandals and a trade request. The Browns have bent over backward to try and cater the offense to him, so there’s a lot on the line this season.
And while Watson has had a difficult run of injuries, at this point that’s more of the norm than an aberration when judging by the totality of his career. Watson’s fearless playing style exposes him to a lot more hits than other quarterbacks and he has an extensive injury history. The Browns might not be able to count on him to stay healthy for a full season, and that’s a significant mark against them in such a competitive AFC.
While there’s still a lot of talent on the roster, the offense is in the midst of a major identity shift with RB Nick Chubb coming back from a gruesome knee injury and legendary OL coach Bill Callahan gone to coach under his son with the Titans. The Browns are shifting to a pass-heavy offense, and that just leaves more margin for error if Watson’s not up to the task of carrying the team.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns had the No. 1 total defense in the league last year, so it would be reasonable to expect them to be good on that side of the ball again. But defensive performance is harder to maintain year over year than offensive, so it’s likely the Browns take some sort of step back. Add it all up, and Cleveland seems like one of the leading contenders to fall out of the postseason in 2024.
Out: Miami Dolphins
Both the Dolphins and Bills have undergone transitional offseasons, with key players moving on to other teams due to financial considerations or otherwise. There’s still enough talent on both squads to vie for a playoff bid but the competition in the division and the rest of the conference will be fierce. A little slip could be all it takes to go from the fifth seed and into the ninth and out.
One of the biggest factors that knocks teams out of the playoffs each year is injuries, and especially quarterback injuries. In that regard, the Dolphins’ risk factor is a little higher than some other teams given QB Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history. He played a full season last year and has taken significant measures to try and prevent further concussions which could end up career-threatening. Sometimes there’s only so much a player can to stay healthy, though, and bad luck strikes.
Miami will face the big question of whether they can finish a season as strong as they start. Some of that is staying ahead of the curve on offense and figuring out how to remain potent even when there are injuries or less-than-ideal circumstances. Right now the Dolphins are a lot like a sleek sports car that’s finetuned for peak performance, but it thrown out of wack when a little bit of dirt gets in the wrong place in the engine.
From a personnel standpoint, the Dolphins had significant turnover on both sides of the line of scrimmage which they will need to work through. On defense, new DC Anthony Weaver is taking over for previous DC Vic Fangio, who is an esteemed defensive mind but a prickly personality who didn’t jibe with the players last year. Weaver is a lot more popular and will be bringing over a version of the Ravens’ defensive system which is the new “it” scheme on defense these days. But it’s worth noting the last time Weaver ran a defense was in 2020 with the Texans and he lasted just one year in the role.
Out: Baltimore Ravens
Yeah, I don’t like this call either. But when you work backward from the assumption that at least three teams in each conference won’t repeat as playoff teams, it forces you to take a stand. History says there will be outcomes next January that seem unfathomable right now. There is a lot more skepticism about the Steelers and Bills than the Chiefs, Texans and Ravens, but I think the Steelers are sneaky bets for the postseason because of HC Mike Tomlin’s strong track record of always fielding a competitive team and the particular physical identity they’ve built with this year’s squad — on paper at least. Someone has to win the AFC East and I still like the Bills’ chances the best. I’m buying a leap from the Texans, and there’s no way I’m picking against the Chiefs even if I’m trying to be bold.
That leaves the Ravens.
One way or another, Baltimore is probably taking a step back in 2024 after finishing with the AFC’s best record and No. 1 seed last year. Things just came together almost perfectly with a combination of good health and breakout performances from players up and down the roster. To be fair, the Ravens should get credit for restocking the pipeline as good as any team in the league, staying ahead of the NFL’s inevitable attrition.
They’re going to have to do that again. They’re replacing eight starters across both sides of the ball and former DC Mike Macdonald, one of the brightest young minds in the league right now on defense. His replacement is former LB Zach Orr, who’s only been an assistant for a few years and is taking on his first coordinator job. The Ravens speak highly of Orr and believe he’s ready, and maybe he will be. But he’s a wildcard. The team is also replacing three starters on the offensive line and has a wide-open competition to start at guard, which could be problematic given how much they want to base their identity on running the ball.
The Ravens could still make the playoffs with all of these issues due to the talent in other areas, but it does lower their margin for error. A major injury or two — especially to QB Lamar Jackson — could leave them scrambling. And it’s not like that would be completely unprecedented given Jackson has finished two of the past three seasons on the injury report.
In: Cincinnati Bengals
Injuries to QB Joe Burrow put the Bengals in too big of a hole to climb out of, even though they were billed as popular Super Bowl contenders entering the 2023 season. Burrow hurt his calf in training camp which impacted the preparation of the offense as a whole and lingered for weeks into the regular season. It was a major reason Cincinnati started 1-3.
Burrow improved and the Bengals clawed back to 5-3, right in the thick of the playoff race. But he went down for good with a wrist injury in a division game against the Ravens, knocking the team down to 5-5. Backup QB Jake Browning played admirably to go 4-3 down the stretch but it wasn’t enough in a crowded AFC.
With a healthy Burrow back under center, the Bengals should be in a good position to try and make good on the potential many thought they had in 2023. They still have both star WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the offensive line returns four of five starters from a solid unit. There’s significant coaching continuity on both sides of the ball and talent at all three levels of the defense. I like the Bengals’ chances to win a competitive AFC North and believe they still have the best chance of any other team in the conference to dethrone the Chiefs.
In: Indianapolis Colts
In the Colts’ first year under HC Shane Steichen, they came within a couple of plays of winning the AFC South and making the playoffs despite losing dynamic first-round QB Anthony Richardson after just a couple of games and rolling the rest of the season with QB Gardner Minshew. Richardson is back healthy, Steichen has had a year to add to his offense, so Indianapolis should be in the thick of things once again.
Richardson will be a rookie in a lot of ways and will make mistakes from inexperience. But contrary to the narrative, I think he’s more prepared and polished as a quarterback than he was given credit for as a prospect, and that was on display in the short amount of time he played last year as well as his obvious physical talents. Truthfully the biggest concern with Richardson is whether he can stay healthy, as that was a concern in college as well. If he can, the Colts could legitimately have one of the most potent offenses in football. The offensive line has regained its form and there is quality skill position talent with RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr., plus youngsters like WRs Josh Downs and second-round WR Adonai Mitchell.
On defense, there are major questions in the secondary outside of veteran CB Kenny Moore. But the Colts have some talent in the front seven to keep the unit treading water, especially if the young edge rushers like first-rounders Laiatu Latu and Kwity Paye ball out. As long as DC Gus Bradley can get this group playing at around a league-average level, that should be good enough to get into the playoffs if the offense approaches its ceiling.
In: New York Jets
I’ve had major misgivings about the Jets in each of the past two seasons. I still feel some skepticism about their prospects. The last time we saw QB Aaron Rodgers, he was closer to a league-average guy than a former MVP, and the fact that OC Nathaniel Hackett is still hanging around isn’t a positive.
But this team just feels due in some ways. Former doormat franchises like the Raiders, Lions and even the Browns have all made the playoffs more recently than the Jets, who have one of the longest droughts in the league going back to 2010. The roster — on paper — looks good enough to end that. The defense has been in the top five in total defense each of the past two seasons with very little help from the offense. The Jets have two exciting young skill players in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson to build the offense around, plus some potential complementary pieces. A lot of effort has been put into the offensive line and it could pay off in 2024 if veteran LT Tyron Smith and RT Morgan Moses can play double-digit games. Even if they don’t, the depth is much better than it has been.
I wouldn’t go as far as calling the Jets Super Bowl contenders at this point. It might be within their range of outcomes but there are still questions about coaching, depth and which version of Rodgers they’re getting. There’s still enough here to capitalize if the Bills and Dolphins take a step back in the AFC East.
NFC
Out: Dallas Cowboys
There’s an axiom in the NFL that if you’re not getting better as a team, you’re getting worse. The competition is too intense and it’s incredibly hard for a team to get so far ahead of everyone else that they can relax and tread water. If you described the Cowboys’ offseason so far as “treading water,” that would probably be too generous. Dallas let a plethora of free agents walk this offseason and didn’t make any replacements outside of the draft and a few cheap signings.
Owner Jerry Jones and his family have cried poor, pointing to pending big-money extensions for QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and DE Micah Parsons as a reason to be frugal. Yet none of those deals have been finalized and the price has not gone down. Prescott is facing a potential walk year with a no-tag clause paving a path to free agency if he wants it, and Lamb is holding out of training camp right now.
The Cowboys didn’t fire HC Mike McCarthy after a stunning playoff loss to the No. 7-seeded Packers and another prominent playoff failure. But they didn’t extend his contract either and he’s the current face of the NFL coaching hot seat in a lame-duck year. McCarthy will presumably have to make the playoffs and go on a run to save his job, all with a new defensive coordinator and a worse roster than anything he’s had over the past few years.
All the talent from a team that has won 36 games in the past three seasons didn’t evaporate, but the vibes surrounding the Cowboys are bad right now. All of Jones’ decisions, from bringing back McCarthy to his inactivity in free agency and the lack of progress on extensions for star players, have sucked the energy out of the fanbase. Dallas probably won’t bottom out completely but it’s all too easy to see adversity causing the season to snowball with how much pressure is on all the parties involved here.
Out: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs got to give a middle finger to all the doubters last year who expected them to fall off the map going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback. They won the NFC South and beat the Eagles in the wildcard round. Tampa Bay has made the playoffs four straight years and won the division in three of those. They acted like a contending team gunning for another run this offseason by re-signing a bunch of players to new deals and extensions, like Mayfield, WR Mike Evans and S Antoine Winfield Jr.
Yet this is a team that was 4-7 entering last December and is just 17-17 in HC Todd Bowles’ two seasons in charge. The defense was No. 7 in scoring last year but No. 23 in yards allowed. Mayfield lost former OC Dave Canales to the Panthers and will be switching play-callers again with former Rams OC Liam Coen arriving after a year at Kentucky. While he gave the Bucs a spark and reignited his career, he wasn’t mistaken for a top quarterback in 2023.
The best thing the Bucs have going for them is playing in an NFC South division that still seems wide open. But that won’t last forever and teams like the Falcons and Panthers looked to make major strides this offseason. It feels like this might be the year where the Bucs’ streak ends.
Out: Los Angeles Rams
The final dropout slot in the NFC came down to the Eagles and Rams, with the Packers, Lions and 49ers feeling safe at the top of the conference even if one of the NFC North teams ends up a No. 5 seed. There are more bad vibes around the Eagles than the Rams given the coordinator changes and how last season ended but if both the Cowboys and Eagles miss the playoffs, that means either the Commanders or Giants win the NFC East. I can imagine a world where that happens but it feels pretty radical.
That leaves the Rams. While on paper the team looks a lot better after taking its rebuild year on the chin with all that dead money in 2023, the rest of the NFC West has also improved. The Cardinals are entering Year 2 of a rebuild, the Seahawks have a lot of talent and the 49ers are the 49ers. If the Rams make the playoffs again, they will have fought tooth and nail to have earned it.
The team once again looks like it’s going to have a lean toward offense, spending most of its money in free agency to try and shore up the offensive line in front of 36-year-old QB Matthew Stafford. That should also have the benefit of letting the team continue to lean on the ground game with 2023 breakout RB Kyren Williams. The makeover on defense continues another year, however.
Los Angeles has more players who have made a name for themselves on defense in 2024 after it was Aaron Donald and “who?” in 2023. But the Rams lost both Donald and DC Raheem Morris to retirement and a head coaching opportunity in Atlanta, and those blows are significant. The entire identity of the defensive unit is in flux, and that feels like an anchor that could weigh the Rams down just enough to allow other teams to catch them in the wildcard race.
In: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are justifiably optimistic about the upcoming season. In fact, optimistic might not be rosy enough to describe the hype emanating from that team so far this offseason. The team has been knocking on the door of the playoffs the last two years but has been held back by poor quarterback play, whether it was Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder. So owner Arthur Blank finally had enough mucking around and went out and signed QB Kirk Cousins in free agency to solidify the position. Cousins brings a level of experience and proven production that the team hasn’t had since Matt Ryan.
That seemingly answers the biggest question about the offense. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts are viewed as future stars around the league, and Atlanta has a solid offensive line. New OC Zac Robinson is the latest sharp branch off the McVay tree, and the perk is Cousins was running a similar offense in Minnesota the past two years. There’s a natural learning curve and of course, Cousins’ torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season, but all of that feels surmountable for Atlanta right now.
Defense will be more of a challenge. There’s a new coordinator and some major holes at important positions like cornerback and edge rusher. But the Falcons are equipped to win shootouts and are understandably the betting favorites to win the NFC South.
In: Seattle Seahawks
There’s a major learning curve with first-time head coaches and a serious bust rate, which is probably why there’s so much general skepticism around the Seahawks’ outlook in 2024. Most power rankings have them in the low teens to early 20s, and the books have the betting line for Seattle’s win total set at 7.5.
But I’m bullish on the outlook for new HC Mike Macdonald because of how strong his defensive system has been the past two years with the Ravens. Macdonald’s become known for tailoring his approach to his players, and that could help lessen the transition to a new team because there will be less turnover for “his guys.” That’s important because Macdonald is inheriting a team with a lot of young talent. On defense, Macdonald can lean on players like CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen, S Julian Love, OLB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Leonard Williams, OLB Boye Mafe and DL Dre’Mont Jones, among others.
On offense, the Seahawks are in good shape as well. Starting QB Geno Smith has become one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league, and he has potentially three quality receivers to throw to in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba plus a two-headed punch of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet at running back.
The two big questions are at offensive coordinator and offensive line. For the former, Macdonald hired former Washington Huskies OC Ryan Grubb who is fresh off some huge seasons at the college level. But there’s been a lot of positive feedback about the pro-style aspects of Grubb’s scheme, so he also feels like a first-time coach who is poised to hit the ground running. On the line, LT Charles Cross is a great building block piece and so is a healthy RT Abraham Lucas. The latter is battling some injuries still, however, and the interior is a little more unsettled, though the Seahawks have some players who could step up as well as some potential external options.
We’ve seen first-time head coaches hit the ground running in recent years, and I think the Seahawks have all the ingredients to recreate that in 2024. It might be ambitious to catch the 49ers in the NFC West but I don’t think it’s completely out of the question.
In: Chicago Bears
Last year, the Texans and QB C.J. Stroud challenged some of the preconceptions about what’s possible for a team with a rookie starter. Historically, few rookie quarterbacks played well enough to reach the playoffs, let alone win a game. But Houston provided a clear bar for the Bears to shoot for this season, even if they’re being careful not to set that as the expectation.
The Bears loaded up around No. 1 overall QB Caleb Williams, adding veteran WR Keenan Allen and first-round WR Rome Odunze to a group that already included 1,300-yard WR D.J. Moore. The Texans might be the only other team with a better receiver trio, and if Williams isn’t successful as a rookie, a lack of weapons won’t be a problem.
Chicago’s defense improved rapidly over the second half of last season and could take another step forward in 2024. The team has been building the offensive line as well, and while it’s not as rock solid as the skill group, the Bears have high hopes it won’t be a season-killing deficiency.
It all comes down to Williams. He was thought highly of as a prospect, earning the “generational” tag from a lot of evaluators. There will be a learning curve — just like there was for Stroud, too — but if Williams hits the ground running, the playoffs are a reasonable goal for the Bears.
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