A double-digit seed goes deep into March on a Cinderella run every year. NC State made the Final Four last year. Princeton reached the Sweet Sixteen the year before. St. Peter’s reached the Elite Eight in 2022 as a 15-seed. These Cinderella teams are often picked to lose in the first round, but they defy all expectations and pull off at least two upsets.
Only five double-digit seeds remain after a relatively tame first two days: Arkansas, New Mexico, Drake, Colorado State, and McNeese State. They all were slight underdogs in their first game, as they were some of the most popular upsets. However, because of the seeding, they will all face better opponents in the round of 32 (13-16 seeds actually have easier round of 32 matchups if they win). So, how likely is each team to win their next game and advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
Which Double-Digit Seed Will be Cinderella in 2025?
Arkansas: St. John’s at 2:40 ET on Saturday
Arkansas may be the best team in this set. After writing off the razorbacks following the Boogie Fland injury, Arkansas took advantage of a tough SEC schedule and worked their way into the tournament. They even stifled Kansas down the stretch in the Round of 64 to advance to this matchup. However, St. John’s is the fifth seed in this tournament and a very good basketball squad. St. John’s may struggle on offense (64th), but they boast the best defense according to KenPom. Arkansas will have a tough time scoring, and despite having a good defense, they won’t be able to stop St. John’s on the fast break after turnovers. Arkansas can win this game, but it seems unlikely. A win could lead to an easier matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, making the chance for an Elite Eight run.
Upset Probability: 30%
New Mexico: Michigan State at 8:40 ET on Sunday
After New Mexico held the lead for most of the game, Marquette stormed back to take the lead. New Mexico went on a subsequent 10-0 run and won without much fuss. Richard Pitino is a candidate for other jobs, but he remains with the Lobos for now. Pitino is a great coach on a good defensive team. However, they will be playing against an even better coach. Tom Izzo has the Spartans playing top-25 offense and top-5 defense. New Mexico’s only hope is to try and win a low-scoring slugfest or get hot from three. Michigan State looked shaky against Bryant early. If the Lobos can get out to a big lead early, they may be able to do what they did to Marquette and be the double-digit seed Cinderella. A win would put them against either Iowa State or Ole Miss—winnable games, but they’ll be an underdog again.
Upset Probability: 30%
Drake: Texas Tech at 6:10 ET on Saturday
Drake was a consistent pick in brackets and a favorite to be a double-digit seed Cinderella. Despite playing against an SEC opponent, most people believed that Drake had what it took to beat the Tigers. Texas Tech will be a different animal. Drake is certainly no pushover, but they will need to control the possession against the high-flying Red Raiders offense (fifth in KenPom offensive efficiency). Drake runs the shot clock down as far as they can before getting a shot. That could be their biggest enemy if they fall behind, or their biggest ally if they have a lead. Drake will stay in this game because of their tempo, but Texas Tech is too efficient on offense to say Drake will pull off the upset. However, I give them a better chance to pull it off than the first two. A win could put the Bulldogs against Arkansas, which would be a fun Sweet Sixteen matchup.
Upset Probability: 35%
Colorado State: Maryland at 7:10 ET on Sunday
Colorado State beat Memphis in a very odd 12-5 matchup. The Rams “pulled off the upset” against a team that’s ranked two spots lower than them in the final NET rankings. NET rankings aren’t everything, but the seeds didn’t make too much sense to me here. Colorado State dominated the second half to pull off the upset and have been on a tear. They won the Mountain West championship to earn their bid. The real question is whether they can knock off Maryland and be a real double-digit seed Cinderella. Maryland, like Michigan State, boasts a top-25 offense and the sixth-best defense, according to KenPom. Colorado has gotten pretty good at grinding out wins they probably shouldn’t have, so don’t count out the Rams. But if Maryland plays like they did against Grand Canyon, it won’t be a long stay. A win for Colorado State would give them UConn or Florida. I’m not loving the Rams here.
Upset Probability: 25%
McNeese State: Purdue at 12:10 ET on Saturday
McNeese has the best chance of advancing. They have an elite coach, Will Wade, who will be leaving for a power conference job at the end of the season. While McNeese pulled off an upset against a Clemson team that played horribly, McNeese didn’t play very well either. Weirdly, that’s a good sign for their game against Purdue because there’s room to improve. Purdue also didn’t play well, but they played a High Point team that just played worse. McNeese will try to make the game ugly again, and Purdue didn’t do well at avoiding that against High Point. McNeese will be an underdog, but they have the skill and winning prowess to be the double-digit seed Cinderella. A win would put them against Gonzaga or Houston, an unlikely upset. However, I could see them pulling off the upset Saturday afternoon.
Upset Probability: 40%
The Last Word on Double-Digit Seed Cinderellas
None of these seeds are more likely to pull off the upset than not, and all the matchups are difficult. However, each team has a chance. I could see any of them pulling off the upset, which is why each team has at least a 25% chance to win. One of these teams will likely pull off the upset, so be prepared for more brackets to be busted this weekend.
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