The Boston Celtics are in the midst of a troubling 7-6 stretch. One of the more interesting developments this season has been the starting lineup’s lack of efficiency. Through nine games and 138 minutes, the Celtics’ starting five of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis have a 107.9 offensive rating and a 116.8 defensive rating good for a -8.9 net rating. Conversely, in 208 minutes with Al Horford in the lineup over Porzingis, the Celtics have a 21.9 net rating, a 122.1 offensive rating, and a 100.2 defensive rating.
These numbers are a stark contrast from last season when the lineup with Porzingis posted a net rating of 11 (120.3 offensive rating, 109.4 defensive rating) in 623 total minutes. With Al in the lineup through 311 minutes, Boston had a 2.7 net rating (118.5 offensive rating, 115.8 defensive rating). Additionally, the Celtics have just a 9-7 record with Porzingis playing compared to a 43-14 record last year. Given these stats starting Horford over Porzingis has been somewhat of a hot topic in Celtics circles. Let’s explore whether Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics should start Horford over Porzingis.
Should the Celtics Change Their Starting Lineup?
The Case for Starting Horford
To be clear, moving Porzingis to the bench shouldn’t be seen as a slight. Porzingis still provides the Celtics with a ton of value on both ends of the floor. Notably, before Porzingis returned, the Celtics ranked 26th in opponents’ points in the paint since his return, they rank second. Porzingis is also part of the Celtics’ most efficient lineup. Furthermore, Porzingis has solid averages of 18.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.5 blocks, with shooting splits of 44.5/34.7/84.
Moving Porzingis to the bench is mainly about balancing Boston’s lineups, and he would still be in the closing lineups. It’s difficult to get everyone involved between the Jays, Porzingis, White, and Holiday. This could be a key reason why the Celtics starting lineup has struggled. With Horford in the lineup, the Celtics have two clear off-ball players, Horford and Holiday. Moreover, this would also allow White to have a larger role in the offense. Since the Celtics have been struggling for the past month, it might be time to make a change.
Another key issue is the Celtics’ poor bench play; they notably rank 26th in bench points and 25th in bench minutes. Outside of Payton Pritchard, the Celtics significantly lack bench scoring and shot creation, moving Porzingis to the bench would solve these flaws while creating a devasting bench-scoring duo. Ultimately, having Porzingis come off the bench would balance the Celtics’ starting lineup between creators and spot-up shooters while providing a significant offensive boost to their bench.
The Case for Keeping Porzingis in the Starting Lineup
There’s also a rock-solid argument to keep Porzingis in the starting lineup. As mentioned before, the starting lineup only has nine games and 138 minutes, simply getting more court time together could change the lineup’s concerning stats, especially considering their success last season. Porzingis is recovering from a fairly serious injury; sometimes patience is key. Additionally, from a talent and upside perspective, this is clearly Boston’s best lineup. In any scenario, the Celtics would have Porzingis finish games with the starters, so it would be logical for the unit to gel together.
From a practical standpoint, it’s unclear when this move would occur. Four of the six Celtics’ upcoming games are back-to-backs. The Celtics always stagger Porzingis and Al on back-to-back games, negating the possibility of a lineup change. If the lineup continues to struggle after this stretch, perhaps they could explore moving Porzingis to the bench. However, for now, the timing is not right.
Another argument against benching Porzingis is that the Celtics’ main issue is closing games, not starting them. Over the past month, Boston ranks 23rd in fourth-quarter net rating compared to 11th on the season and second in first-quarter net rating on the season, including the last month. Last season, the Celtics ranked first in fourth-quarter net rating. Perhaps Boston’s issue of having too many mouths to feed is impacting their fourth-quarter play. However, that’s puzzling, given the lineup’s success last season. The Celtics should use this stretch of adversity to strengthen their core and regain their success from last season. Even though they had success last season, it can be challenging to reintegrate Porzingis back into the starting lineup and sometimes it simply takes time. As things currently stand, Boston shouldn’t alter their starting five and should give this talented core more time to gel.
The Last Word
Ultimately, the Celtics should continue to start Porzingis, given their upcoming schedule and the lack of court time Boston’s starting five has had together. However, if this lineup keeps struggling, a tweak might be needed, and the starting lineup numbers are certainly concerning. Given the talent, upside, and proven success of this lineup, Boston must prioritize getting the starting five more reps together on the court. At the same time, if no changes are made to the starting lineup Mazzulla might change the closing lineup more often based on who is at their best on any given night.
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