With a 23-9 record, the defending champion Boston Celtics are the second seed in the Eastern Conference. At face value, this sounds pretty good. However, the Celtics have a 7-6 record in December and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Moreover, this is the worst month since December 2022, and the Celtics have lost three out of their last four games. Let’s dive into some issues during this shaky stretch and ultimately decide what the panic level should be for Boston.
How Concerning is the Celtics’ Recent Stretch?
Lackluster Defense
The Celtics’ defense has been a key issue. While they still rank eighth in defensive rating, Boston’s clutch time defense has plummeted to 21st and 27th in December. Not being able to get stops late in games has been a key issue, especially as four out of the Celtics’ six losses in December occurred in clutch time games. The Celtics have had lackluster rotations and frequently give up open shots late in games. Boston’s late-game offense isn’t a concern, as they still have the third-best clutch-time offense in December.
The Celtics have one of the most talented defensive units in the league, with their entire starting five being All-Defensive caliber. For the past three seasons, the Celtics have posted a top-three defense, and last year they had the sixth-best clutch-time defense. After a recent nine-point loss to the Indiana Pacers, Jayson Tatum discussed how a lack of communication is causing defensive inconsistencies.
Jayson Tatum on the cause of the defensive inconsistencies:
“I think we got to communicate better. All five guys gotta be on the same page — too many breakdowns. And I think if we just communicate and talk a little bit better, that’ll help with a lot of things.” pic.twitter.com/vMBZarzqPd
— Noa Dalzell
(@NoaDalzell) December 30, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Given their incredible talent and Tatum’s comments, poor effort has been central to their defensive shortcomings. Additionally, Joe Mazzulla spoke about the lack of focus and effort. Coming off a championship, the Celtics have taken their foot off the gas a little. However, they need to get back on track because there is no reason for them to be underperforming defensively. Getting their defense back to previous season forms will be central for the Celtics to regain success.
Struggles Against Fast-Paced Teams
One of the more interesting pieces of the Celtics’ losses is how they struggle against fast-paced teams. The Celtics rank 21st in pace; this isn’t anything new; in the past three seasons, they have never ranked higher than 19th. The Celtics offense is built around the drive-and-kick game from Tatum and Jaylen Brown, which lends itself to a slower pace. While the Celtics’ style of play is nothing new, struggling against faster teams is new.
Notably, six of the Celtics’ nine losses have come against teams that rank in the top 10 in pace. The Golden State Warriors ranked 11th in pace, so extending this criteria, seven out of their nine losses have come against fast-paced teams. The Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic are outliers to this trend, as both teams rank in the bottom three in pace. Nevertheless, it’s clear when teams push the pace against the Celtics, they struggle on both ends of the floor. Defensively, this causes poor rotations; offensively, the Celtics are unable to control the flow of the game through isolations and drive-and-kick plays.
Being able to adapt to different playstyles will be a key improvement for the Celtics going forward, especially once the playoffs start. Luckily, they’ve done it before, as last year they only lost one game in total to the Pacers and Dallas Mavericks (two teams that were top 10 in pace) en route to an NBA title.
Star Play
Despite the team’s overall struggles, Tatum and Brown have maintained an elite level of play; this should allow all Celtics fans to remain confident. In December, Tatum is averaging 28.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 6.0 assists on 45.2/37.9/81 shooting splits. Tatum is arguably having a career-best season, averaging a career-high in rebounds and assists. While Brown is averaging 24.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 45.4/35.5/75.4 shooting splits. As long as the Jays continue their elite level of play, concern around the team should be fairly minimal. Having two elite shot-creating and all-around wings makes the Celtics an impossible matchup, especially in the playoffs.
However, given his injury history, it’s fair to have concerns about Kristaps Porzingis. After returning from his offseason ankle surgery in November, Porzingis sprained his ankle on Christmas Day and has been out for three straight games. While the Celtics don’t consider Porzingis’ injury serious, it’s fair to wonder about his overall durability. Nevertheless, the Celtics have proven they are capable of success without Porzingis, as they won the title with him sidelined for most of the playoffs.
Jrue Holiday‘s declining offensive efficiency is another reasonable cause for concern. Holiday’s three-point percentage has dropped from 42.9 to 32.6, and he is shooting just 31 percent on open threes. Regardless, Holiday’s defense remains elite. Furthermore, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are having career seasons. This gives the Celtics a counter if Holiday’s shooting struggles persist, which is a realistic possibility, especially as he has been sidelined with a shoulder injury for the past three games. Pritchard’s offensive output, in particular, is an element the Celtics didn’t have last season.
The Last Word
While December has been a less-than-ideal month for Boston, the panic level should remain low. The Celtics are 4.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the top seed in the conference. Boston won’t be the same 64-win regular season juggernaut as last year and likely will be the two-seed, but they will still finish within the mid to high 50s for wins. Nonetheless, come playoff time, there’s no other team with this combination of talent, balance, and experience. Ultimately, this combination, and having the NBA’s best duo, allows the Celtics to remain title favorites.
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