The Oklahoma City Thunder have one more game left in the regular season before they start their playoff journey. This time, the Thunder are hopeful they are one of two teams left playing in June. However, if the Thunder can’t win the Finals again this year, people will say, that it is ok because they are still young and have a ton of draft picks. In addition, they will also be saying, the Thunder will eventually win because they are set up to perfect not to. However, the next three years might be OKC’s best chance at winning the Finals.
The Thunder have one of the best rosters in the NBA as they can go, 11-12 deep in their rotation. The Thunder will have everyone back in their rotation next year and possibly for a third year. After that, the Thunder will have to start figuring out who to pay and who to let go, as they will be unable to pay everyone. This is when their draft picks will come into play, to hopefully replenish any talent they lose or trade for someone they need. However, it is not a guarantee they will be able to hit on their draft picks or the person they trade for might not fit with their team. Let’s dive into why the next three years might be OKC’s best chance at winning the Finals.
Are The Next 3 Years the Best Chance For OKC to Win the Finals?
The Thunder Have Set Themselves up Perfectly, But It’s Not a Guarantee
The Thunder are one of the youngest teams in the NBA and are already a title contender. In addition, they have set themselves up to sustain this success for the next ten years with their 15 first-round picks and 17 second-round picks between now and 2031. Nevertheless, as we briefly mentioned above, it is not a guarantee they will be able to hit on all those draft picks or trade them for someone who will fit with their team. The Thunder have one of the best GMs in the league, Sam Presti, and his track record at drafting players or trading for players speaks for itself.
A big reason that the Thunder went from one of the worst teams in basketball to one of the best teams in a matter of three years was how well they drafted and built this team, is that they were able to find guys like Jalen Williams with the 12th pick, Cason Wallace with the 10th pick, or steals in the second round with Aaron Wiggins and Jaylin Williams. Moreover, they found Lu Dort as an undrafted free agent and picked up Isaiah Joe from waivers after he was cut. Even though the Thunder were able to find all these players it doesn’t mean they will be able to keep finding these players and won’t have busts along the way.
You Can’t Keep Everyone
After this year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible for a supermax extension, and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be eligible for rookie max extensions. However, Holmgren’s and Williams’ extension won’t take effect until the 2026-2027 season, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s will take effect the following year. When those three extensions start to kick in, it will be very difficult for the Thunder to keep other key players around, especially under the new CBA rules. They will have to use those draft picks to replenish any talent that leaves and as we just mentioned above, that isn’t a guarantee.
After the 2025-2026 season, the Thunder must start making tough decisions on who to keep and who to let go. However, the good news for the Thunder is that most of those players have team options they can pick up to keep them around for at least another season. This gives the Thunder a three-year window with this core that has nearly won 70 games this season. After that, it is a lot of unknowns for this Thunder team. Even though they should still be competitive for as long as their big three are there, this year and the next two years might be OKC’s best chance at winning the Finals, with the circumstances they will have to deal with moving forward.
Other Teams in The West Will Start to Get Good
For the next couple of years, the Thunder will still have to deal with good teams in the West like the Lakers, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Warriors. In addition, they will be competing soon with up-and-coming teams including the Rockets, the Spurs, and the Blazers. The West isn’t going to get any easier moving forward for the Thunder and as their depth gets weaker over the years, it will be harder to get out of the West consistently. A big reason why they were able to be so good this year even with all the injuries they sustained was because of how deep they can go. Eventually, that might not be a luxury they have moving forward.
The Last Word
The Thunder are in the best position possible, to be successful and dominate for the next ten years. As long as Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, and Williams are there they should be in the playoffs competing every year for the championship. However, under the new CBA rules sustaining long-term success is more difficult than it has ever been, and will be a challenge for the Thunder to navigate. Once you get over the hump of winning a Finals it is easier to get over the hump again with less talent than trying to get over the hump with less talent and never winning before. Ultimately, the Thunder will have this core around for at least three years and those three years might be OKC’s best chance at winning the Finals even if they are contenders after that.
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