One of the more encouraging parts of the 2024 season for the Los Angeles Angels was the incremental signs of growth from outfielder Jo Adell. For starters, the 25-year-old logged the most regular and consistent playing time of his career after struggling mightily for his first few seasons (451 plate appearances). Adell, a former highly-touted top prospect with elite power and speed, has been derailed by his poor hit tool. Of nearly 500 players with 800 or more plate appearances since 2020 (Adell’s debut year), he is in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate (32.2%) and OBP (.268). But in 2024, Jo Adell was one of just 26 hitters to hit at least 20 home runs and steal 15 or more bases, although it still was not pretty. Adell accomplished the feat in the ugliest fashion of any of them, slashing .207/.280/.402 (90 wRC+). To be fair, he did spend some time on the injured list.
However, Adell is a gifted athlete and has finally started to turn his raw power into game power. In addition, he has made improvements with his ability to make contact, do damage when he does make contact, and with his swing decisions. Subsequently, those improvements have allowed him to have more stolen base opportunities. The holes are still glaring, but there are underlying improvements along with the foundation of established skills that make him an intriguing player in 2025.
How Jo Adell Can Bounce Back in 2025
Cutting Down Strikeouts
The primary driver of Adell being closer to a league-average hitter in 2024 was bringing his strikeout rate to 27.9%. That is still obviously not a great number. But it is substantially improved from the rates he has lived at previously. A 28% strikeout rate is tenable and we see multiple highly productive hitters with a strikeout rate around there. Most of them compensate with great quality of contact and strong plate discipline. Adell has shown that he is not going to walk at an above-average clip. So, the slug will need to be there. But there were promising improvements in his contact and swing decision metrics. Here are some of the year-to-year improvements:
| 2023 | 2024 | |
| Chase% | 31.5% | 29.7% |
| Contact% | 65.9% | 72.0% |
| Z-Contact% | 78.9% | 81.6% |
| SwStr% | 18.0% | 13.9% |
Furthermore, perhaps the most encouraging year-over-year improvement made by Adell pertains to his pitch selection. The swing decision metric known as SEAGER aims to find the hitters who balance swinging at hittable pitches more than they swing at balls outside the zone to optimize quality of contact. It can be useful when assessing what a hitter’s power could look like. While there are varying samples across his time in the majors, here is Adell’s progression in this area since debuting in 2020:
| Year | SEAGER Percentile |
| 2020 | 15th |
| 2021 | 60th |
| 2022 | 44th |
| 2023 | 69th |
| 2024 | 96th |
This could be what helps unlock Adell to reach a 30-home run season. His longer swing (7.6 feet) and uppercut shape will always have some swing and miss. However, if he can maintain the contact rate he showed with his strong contact quality, there is a real upside.
Batted Ball
2024 Hitters who ranked in the 75th Percentile or above in:
· 90th Percentile EV
· Pulled Flyball%
· SEAGER(min. 20 BBE and 100 pitches)#MLB | #RandomStats | #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/6FR6EzvJNv
— Kyle (@kylebaseball7) January 8, 2025
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Adell has all the bat speed you could want (98th percentile) and high-end exit velocities. Moreover, he has a good Hard Hit% (44.7%) and Barrel% (11.7%). As you can see above, the right-handed outfielder shares some solid company in doing a few key things. 90th Percentile EV measures the EV of the batted balls in the top 90% of their batted ball events which is a good future predictor of power. Pulled fly ball% looks at the percent of a hitter’s fly balls to the pull side. That is the most ideal outcome of a batted ball. And lastly, SEAGER has been mentioned as a better understanding of swing decisions.
There are plenty of good and productive names in this grouping. Most of them are your classic big boppers that come paired with a high number of strikeouts. The average wRC+ outside of Jo Adell is roughly 121 as well as about a 27% strikeout rate. Obviously, Adell lagged well behind that mark. But, Adell has much higher stolen base upside and with some better fortune, there should be better results too.
A contributor to Adell’s underwhelming final line is an extra low .244 BABIP. Adell has not consistently shown this low of a BABIP across an extended period, including the minor leagues. Further, it was one of the three highest fly ball rates of his pro career. We know how a high fly ball rate can directly result in a lower BABIP. However, while Adell was in the top 20 for fly ball rate (minimum 450 plate appearances), it is fair to say he was unlucky compared to his peers.
Looking strictly at hitters with at least a 45% fly ball rate, Adell sticks out. The average BABIP of that collection of players was roughly .286. Elevating the ball is a good approach for Adell and a lower BABIP is a trade-off. But things should even out for him if he can continue hitting the ball in the air. Comparatively, he becomes much less exciting if he starts pounding the ball into the dirt more.
JO ADELL GAME-TYING GRAND SLAM! pic.twitter.com/nU956O6T3u
— MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Outlook
Jo Adell is an easy player to get fooled by. The physical traits and flashed upside are enough to keep clinging. The demonstrated improvement in some of the noteworthy process-level metrics provides a glimmer of hope. The final line could end in a similarly ugly fashion, but the home run and stolen base numbers should be there to have value.
The new projection system on Fangraphs called OOPSY accounts for the typical stats for hitters but also layers in the new bat tracking metrics developed at Baseball Savant last year. It views Adell in a favorable light, projecting him for 26 home runs and 15 steals. Additionally, it projects him for a slash line of .238/.303/.476 (116 wRC+). He is one of 18 players projected for at least 25 home runs and 15 steals, but his ADP is not in the same zip code. All the other high-profile hitters are going in the top 100 whereas Adell is going after 275. While there is risk in his profile, there is less risk in buying in on Jo Adell while the cost remains low.
The post Why 2025 Could Be the Year for Highly Touted Angels Outfielder appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.