Farm system rankings and PECOTA projections
It’s still winter, and in baseball, when we don’t have other things to discuss, like exciting acquisitions, we talk about rankings, projections, and grades — you know — all the really fun stuff.
Let’s jump right in with some interesting, albeit surprising, news. ESPN dropped their farm system rankings last Friday. Shocked really doesn’t even describe my reaction when reviewing the list. Kiley McDaniel slotted the Sox in with the second-best farm in baseball. Yep, you read that correctly, and your eyes are not defying you. It’s not second-worst, but it’s No. 2 overall, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Crazy, right? If you’ve been following the offseason moves both on the field and in the front office, Chicago has been trying to shake things up a bit. Chris Getz made some solid moves, hiring Ryan Fuller as the director of hitting and Walker McKinven as bench coach to new manager Will Venable. All three are highly regarded throughout baseball, and I like what I see there.
The draft also seems to have improved over the past five seasons, except for 2023 pick Jacob Gonzales, who didn’t perform well after being promoted to the Birmingham Barons (Double-A) in his first full professional season last year. He slashed .225/.284/.321 with a .605 OPS. However, he is still only 22 and played over his age level at Birmingham by -1.7 years.
Last five drafts
2020: Garrett Crochet, LHP
2021: Colson Montgomery, INF
2022: Noah Schultz, LHP
2023: Jacob Gonzales, INF
2024: Hagen Smith, LHP
Montgomery (No. 39), Schultz (No. 16), and Smith (No. 34) are all ranked in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects.
Then there was the December trade of Garrett Crochet, which yielded several additional top prospects, including catcher Kyle Teel (No. 32) and outfielder Braden Montgomery (No. 55). Adding in catcher Edgar Quero (No. 66), acquired from the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo López swap at the 2023 trade deadline, further bolsters the team’s promising young talent pool. OK, call me intrigued.
ESPN compiles its rankings using empirical surplus dollar values, which for the Pale Hose calculates to $313 million. To give you some perspective, the Sox were ranked 20th with a $172 million valuation in 2024. That’s quite a jump. The Dodgers sit above them in first with $420 million and the Detroit Tigers are third at $298 million.
It does feel like a bit of déjà vu to have a farm system sitting near the top of the heap. After all, we’ve been here all too recently. So, like many Sox fans, while I am kind of interested I’ll still sit here with my pile of skepticism. Let me know when I can attend the World Series parade. Does anyone have Rick Hahn on speed dial?
Oh, yeah, PECOTA projections, baby!
Everyone’s favorite proprietary system, used by Baseball Prospectus to forecast player and team performance, has spoken. That scene from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (the good version with Gene Wilder, not the crappy Johnny Depp one) always comes to my mind when I look at the projections. The dude in the lab tells the investors that, based on the laws of probability, his computer can tell them where the last three remaining golden tickets are located.
Yeah, right, buddy. I don’t think so. That’s pretty much how I feel about computer projections. My eyeballs can tell me that the Dodgers are amazing and the White Sox are going to be awful. I don’t need some fancy program to affirm that for me. Honestly, we know these types of stats are primarily about sports betting but don’t get me started.
Anyway, PECOTA tells us that this year, Chicago is looking at around 61 1⁄2 wins with a 0% chance of making the playoffs. I think the computer didn’t watch what we all had to endure last year. I wonder if there’s an input section for witnessing the worst season in modern baseball history. That many wins would be a 20-game improvement, which, in my opinion, is way too optimistic. They’ll also be in last place come the end of September, roughly about 25 games out of first place. That also doesn’t seem to be a significant enough deficit.
Baseball Prospectus
So, to sum it all up. They’ll be terrible again and likely headed for their third-straight 100-loss season. The end.