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Three Names to Watch for Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Sleepers in 2025

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David Festa offers high upside in fantasy baseball

In fantasy baseball, there always seems to be plenty of upside and value available late in regard to starting pitchers. Last season, Jared Jones ended up breaking camp with the rotation and made history on his way to a solid rookie season. AL Cy Young finalist Seth Lugo was cheaply obtained last season and vastly over-performed. Commonly, these breakouts come from young pitchers breaking onto the scene. More recently, they have come in the form of relievers with starter traits transitioning to starting and flourishing. Now, we can take a few dart throws on some appealing pitcher profiles who fit in both buckets for 2025.

David Festa

Twins rookie RHP David Festa had an up-and-down season with a 4.90 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 64 1/3 innings. However, the superficial numbers are not as pretty, but his underlying metrics show promise. The 24-year-old debuted in late June with excellent extension at 7 feet and was top 30 in K-BB%  at 19%. Here are some of his other peripherals:

FIP 3.76
xFIP 3.58
xERA 4.05
SIERA 3.58

Festa’s Pitch Mix

Festa boasts a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball (40.2% usage), slider (31.8%), and changeup (28%). Standing 6’6″, Festa throws from a 6.2-foot release height and has good fastball characteristics (94.7 MPH, 18 iVB, 1.5 HB), which grades out well at a 107 Stuff+. Its results were not great, with just an 18.9% whiff rate and a .456 xwOBACON. But it is still a valuable zone offering at 53.6%, and he could have better fortune in the future, which is why he is a good fantasy baseball option.

He complements his high-ride fastball with a tight bullet slider thrown at 86.1 MPH (-0.3 iVB, -2.7 HB), good for a 118 Stuff+. Again, he throws it in the zone a healthy amount at 49.9%. And, it also generated a chase outside of the zone 34.9% of the time. While his whiff rate was subpar at 29.1%, it was his best pitch, suppressing damaging contact to the tune of a .346 xwOBAcon and 42.4% ground ball rate.

Lastly, Festa’s best whiff pitch is his changeup. Thrown hard at 88.4 MPH, Festa’s changeup gets good vertical separation from his fastball with 9.5 iVB and 13.6 inches of arm-side run. Although it was his best swing-and-miss pitch, it was his worst pitch by Stuff+ with a 72. But it generated a gaudy 39.4% whiff rate along with a 34.6% chase rate. It is a nasty pitch that works very well with his fastball and slider. However, he got into trouble with the pitch against the same handedness. Right-handed hitters had a .511 xwOBACON against his changeup.

 

Outlook for Fantasy Baseball

Festa has two above-average pitches by Stuff+ and an elite changeup that interacts effectively with his fastball and generates a high amount of whiff. Further, he displayed solid control with an 8.3% walk rate and an above-average Location+ at 101. The Twins have options in the rotation, and Festa is one of their more talented young arms. With his unimpressive surface-level numbers and rotation uncertainty, there is value and opportunity in pursuing Festa in fantasy baseball. His combination of creating swing-and-miss in the zone and inducing chases outside the zone are positive traits that make him an excellent sleeper pick for fantasy baseball. The number of innings could end up limiting him, but he projects favorably.

Kumar Rocker

Another rookie appearing here is Texas Rangers RHP Kumar Rocker. Rocker has battled through multiple arm injuries throughout his career so far before making his major league debut in September 2024. The former 3rd overall pick posted incredibly impressive numbers in the minor leagues this season. Between almost 30 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, Rocker struck out 47 batters and walked just 4. It wasn’t quite as dominant as that in the big leagues, but Rocker looked the part.

Coming up for a cup of coffee in September, Rocker pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He was a tad wild with a 10.9% walk rate, see his current 30 grade command, but also did well with a 25.5% strikeout rate. Rocker has a big, imposing frame at 6’5″ and 245 pounds.

Rocker’s Pitch Mix

He, like Festa, boasts a three-pitch mix with excellent extension (7 feet). However, his consists of a four-seam fastball (42.2% usage), slider (38.5%), and a sinker (17%) while flashing an occasional changeup and curveball. Unlike Festa, Rocker throws from a uniquely low release point for his build at 5.6 feet.

Rocker’s fastball sits around 96 MPH (12.5 iVB, 11 HB). His low release point leads to a lower vertical movement number and contributes to a poor Stuff+ grade of 72. While it is not a swing-and-miss pitch (14.6% whiff rate), he pounds the zone with it (64.1%) and suppresses damage fairly well (.334 xwOBACON). Overall, he does an effective job at locating this pitch up in the zone and up out of the zone. He commands his fastballs the best of all his pitches with a 105 Location+ on the four-seam, and the only other average Location+ is with his sinker (100).

The headliner of the 25-year-old’s arsenal is his death-ball slider. With a 70 grade in his prospect report, Rocker’s 84.1 MPH slider eviscerated major league hitters in his short time with the Rangers. It sort of resembles a hard curveball or a slurve. His 37.9% chase rate, along with a 50% whiff rate on the pitch, were outstanding numbers. Given its platoon-neutral shape, Rocker is comfortable throwing his slider to both hands at similar high 30% rates. It was a small sample, but the usage will likely be something near that in the future.

Kumar Rocker’s sinker has exciting characteristics and underlying metrics as well. Sitting at 95.1 MPH, it generates 17.1 inches of arm side run along with 7.8 inches of iVB. By Stuff+, Rocker’s sinker (105) grades out as one of the 15 best among all starters. The unique element of Rocker’s sinker is the amount of chase and whiff he generates. His 47.1% chase rate on the sinker would have been a top 5 mark of any pitcher in the league.

Generating this extreme rate of swings outside the zone on their sinker is something Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has owned over the last few seasons, and he’s a fantasy baseball stalwart. In fact, Wheeler is by far the leader in Chase rate on sinkers since 2021 at a whopping 52.3% (minimum 400 pitches)! The next closest in that time frame is 43%. Predictably, hitters swinging at pitches outside of the zone has led to positive results, with him also allowing the least amount of hard contact on the pitch (18%). Connecting back to Rocker, if he can in any form emulate the way in which Wheeler’s sinker has performed, it could be pretty exciting.

Outlook for Fantasy Baseball

Rocker has an exciting profile and figures to be a plan in the Rangers rotation in 2025. He has an excellent breaking ball, along with two hard fastballs that he can command well. Moreover, he induces ground balls at 51.5%. The walk rates were not much of an issue in the minor leagues, so he will look to normalize the double-digit walk rate he showed in the majors. With his pedigree and recent dominance, his stock is assuredly on the rise.

Kris Bubic

Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic, in a way, fits the trend of relievers transitioning to starting. Well, he was originally a starter and then moved to the bullpen in 2024 following his return from Tommy John surgery. After performing admirably and his stuff looking crisp, the plan now is for Bubic to move back to the rotation in 2025. While his overall numbers as a starter look poor, some interesting things were happening prior to his injury in 2023 and now after his return in 2024.

Bubic, a soft tosser, primarily threw three pitches as a reliever, which included a four-seam fastball (44.3% usage), slider (36%), and a changeup (16.5%) while mixing in a sinker and cutter. He scrapped a curveball that he had previously used because it got blasted. The improvements were a small sample in 2023 (16 innings), and his Stuff+ numbers will not jump off the page at you. But he showed an intriguing ability to generate swing and miss at levels he has not shown at the major league level previously. Most notably, he maintained this form following injury as a reliever. Here are some of his numbers as a starter in 2023 and where they ranked prior to his injury compared to 2024 as a reliever:

April 2023 Rank
SwStr% 14.7% 14th
Z-Contact% 79.8% 17th
O-Swing% 33.6% 55th
K-BB% 20.6% 30th
FIP 2.63 21st

 

2024 Rank
SwStr% 14.8% 14th
Z-Contact% 79.1% 24h
O-Swing% 40.7% 8th
K-BB% 28.1% 12th
FIP 1.95 4th

Here are his career marks up until 2023 for reference:

Career
SwStr% 9.6%
Z-Contact% 84%
O-Swing% 27.2%
K-BB% 10%
FIP 4.89

Bubic’s Pitch Mix

Bubic’s fastball has improved in Stuff+ every season since 2021. His velocity on the pitch never rose above 91.9 MPH until he ticked things up to 93 MPH as a reliever. But improving his fastball quality from the 4th worst in baseball in 2021 (minimum 130 innings) to right around league average is an impressive feat. Bubic bombarded the zone with the fastball (61.8%) and overpowered hitters with a 34.7% whiff rate. Despite its below-average velocity, it posted the 7th best whiff rate of all four-seamers (minimum 200 pitches). However, its propensity to create swing and miss was balanced out by a .429 xwOBACON. But he has other offerings that handle the damage suppression responsibility.

Simply, the 27-year-old looks like a different pitcher from what we saw in the first three years of his career. After throwing his pitches from about 5.8-foot release height for his first three seasons, Bubic has consistently lowered his release height closer to 5.6 feet in 2023 and 2024. His swing and miss has increased as well as his ground ball rates spiking above 50%. That along with some pitch mix tweaks has allowed him to have a higher ceiling.

His sweeping slider, added in 2023, thrown at 83.9 MPH is a strong weapon that he throws to both hands. It easily grades out as his best pitch by Stuff+ at 110. Additionally, it is his only above average pitch by Stuff+. There is always some concern when throwing a big sweeper to the opposite hand. However, it handled them well with a .283 xwOBACON. It operated more as a weak contact producer than a swing and miss pitch.

A strong whiff pitch for Bubic in 2024 was his changeup. His changeup gets great velocity and vertical movement separation from his fastball (13.4 inches). This led to an elevated rate of swings outside of the zone (51%) and whiff rate (34.1%). The soft-tossing lefty commanded this pitch very well in the shadow regions in and out of the zone. It proved to be a crucial option against right-handed hitters.

A big piece of Bubic’s progression, along with the other aspects mentioned, is his command. In addition to his year-over-year Stuff+ improvements, Bubic has similarly improved his Location+ almost every season. The soft-tossing lefty used to own a double-digit walk rate and below-average strikeout rate. That’s not a big league pitcher. However, Bubic has improved plenty to show that he belongs. His Location+ maxed at 97 from 2020 to 2022. But now his previous two seasons have been at 102 and 109, respectively, as a reliever in 2024. His 109 Location+ would have been third-best among relievers and would have tied for the best among starters.

Outlook for Fantasy Baseball

We can expect Bubic to lose some stuff as he moves back into the rotation. But if he can carry over most of the skills that he has shown over the past two seasons, albeit a small sample, there could be value. Of course, innings will be a question mark as he progresses back from surgery. Following Tommy John surgery, command typically takes the longest to return, while stuff usually returns the quickest. It is a positive sign that Bubic has possibly retained both early in his return.

These three pitchers possess some similar characteristics in regard to depth of arsenal and uncertainty. Rookie arms Festa and Rocker both displayed exciting skillsets and opportunities to claim a rotation spot, which could help their fantasy baseball value. In limited form, we have seen a different version of Kris Bubic. Now, he returns to being a starting pitcher after being in the bullpen, which has been a theme across MLB over the past couple of seasons. Bubic’s home park is one of the most home run-friendly in the league. It should likely forgive some of his mistakes. Looking forward, there is plenty of opportunity when searching for cheap starting pitching, and these players fit the mold.

The post Three Names to Watch for Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Sleepers in 2025 appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.