Colorado Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar is an interesting player to figure out in fantasy baseball. He does not walk (3.3%) and strikes out a lot (28.8%). But he hit 26 home runs in his 22 seasons, slashing .269/.295/.469 (95 wRC+). While he should have solid power and above-average speed, there are some concerning underlying metrics with Tovar.
The Reasons Behind a Likely Fantasy Downfall for Rockies Shortstop in 2025
Chase Tendencies
Tovar has one of the most extreme chase rates and an aggressive approach among all hitters. His 48.1% chase rate in 2024 was the second-highest among qualified hitters. Moreover, there were 11 hitters with at least a 40% chase rate in 2024. Predictably, the average wRC+ of that group is poor at 87. Even then, that number is propped up a bit by catchers Yainer Diaz and Salvador Perez, who have proven to produce despite their tendency to chase outside the zone.
In addition to Tovar’s first-percentile chase rate, his swinging strike rate is among the worst in baseball. His 19.2% swinging strike rate was the highest among qualified hitters. His bat-to-ball skills were supposed to be one of his better traits, but the poor plate discipline has neutered it. This hyper-aggressive approach is fragile and will not age gracefully; see Javier Baez. In the short term, the 23-year-old could still have productive seasons. But the bottom could fall out at any moment.
Ezequiel Tovar set all-time MLB single-season records in 2024 with 1,576 swings and 528 whiffs, and those are not typos. pic.twitter.com/nDBc42GERZ
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) December 26, 2024
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Batted Ball Profile
Despite popping 26 home runs, Tovar’s quality of contact leaves some to be desired. Tovar is not big at 6’0″ and 162 pounds. But he has slightly below average bat speed (71.3 MPH) and a slightly longer than average swing length (7.5 feet). Here are some of his Statcast metrics:
| Barrel% | 9.0% |
| HardHit% | 39.7% |
| xBA | .235 |
| xSLG | .406 |
| xwOBA | .289 |
The Barrel% and HardHit% are solid marks. However, his expected stats noticeably lagged behind his actual numbers. Positively, his barrel control was displayed with a 38.5% Launch Angle Sweet Spot%, ranking in the 87th percentile. So he will hit a healthy amount of line drives to help keep the batting average respectable.
Furthermore, Tovar had a big spike in flyball rate from his first two seasons in the big leagues. The right-handed shortstop was the second biggest riser in fly ball rate from 2023 to 2024. Notably, that increase in elevating the ball in the air came at the expense of hitting ground balls rather than line drives. In addition, he decreased his ground ball rate more than any other hitter from 2023 to 2024. It is encouraging to see him improve different game elements, and perhaps he can gradually improve in the more detrimental areas as well.
Expectations For 2025
Ezequiel Tovar is an excellent defender, allowing him to play daily. And he plays half of his games at a hitter’s paradise in Coors Field. He ranked top five by both important defensive metrics in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. But the warts with his plate discipline and swing and miss cloud the positive elements of his profile. His career 3.7% walk rate and 27.9% strikeout rate put him in rough company since 2015, mainly including pitchers. This sort of profile is one I tend to stay away from in fantasy baseball. The shortstop position is deep, and there are plenty of alternative players in which I would instead invest.
Main Photo Credits: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
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