Now, the prize pitcher on the free agent market, all eyes turn to Jack Flaherty. Who will be the team to secure his signature?
Predicting Jack Flaherty’s Destination for the 2025 Season
Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried have all officially signed, yet many teams still lack the long-term pitcher they desperately need—teams like the Giants, Blue Jays, and Orioles, to name a few. This means all eyes are on someone many wouldn’t have guessed going into 2024, and that is World Series winner Jack Flaherty.
How did we get here?
After finishing fourth in Cy Young voting in 2019, the 29-year-old faced many challenges. Hampered by injuries and inconsistency in the following years, even a mid-2023 trade to the Orioles during their playoff push couldn’t reignite his early career form. Enter the Tigers, who took a chance on him with a one-year, $14 million prove-it deal—a gamble that became one of the most successful in recent memory.
18 starts, 106.2 innings, and a 2.95 ERA for Detroit prompted the Dodgers to trade for him. He wasn’t as successful for the Dodgers, but despite rough outings, he eventually finished the season with 162 innings pitched and a 3.17 ERA. Oh, plus a World Series ring.
Who are the teams interested?
The Orioles are perhaps the most desperate out of those left stumbling by Burnes’s decision. Ken Rosenthal reported, “Jack Flaherty is one fallback option for the Orioles,” and you can understand why with a big Corbin Burnes whole at the top of their rotation. Despite his poor showing in Baltimore, officials aren’t concerned. They “recognized he was worn down” and were reportedly in talks with Detroit over a trade before his eventual move West last season.
Rosenthal also explains how “the Red Sox also cannot be ruled out for Flaherty“, due to their interest in 2023. After trading for Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox have remained in the hunt for more pitching. The big advantage of such a trade is adding a big-name player while maintaining plenty of financial flexibility due to his $2.9 million salary. This is a luxury the Yankees or Dodgers don’t have after their big signings.
After letting Burnes slip through their fingers, the Giants will remain on the hunt for pitching. Known to get the most out of pitchers, it could end up a good match. A certainty at the top of the rotation is the top priority in San Francisco. If it ultimately ends up being a shorter-term deal, expect the Giants to be leading the pack.
Another loser from the Burnes saga was the Blue Jays. Arguably, one of the closest comparisons to Flaherty in recent years is Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays ensured they got their man, handing out a five-year contract to success thus far. Although Flaherty may not have matched Gausman in his platform years, Toronto could easily offer him a five-year deal.
What is it going to cost?
Signing Flaherty will unlikely be cheap. MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason that he would sign a five-year $115 million deal, a contract that draws clear parallels to Gausman. With many teams left desperate, it could easily rise to over $130 million. The other option, of course, is a two- or two-year deal with opt-outs, probably around the $80-90 million range.
However, bear in mind that location can play a role in the final figure. According to Bob Nightingale, “Corbin Burnes was offered more by the Giants and Blue Jays, but [a] big tax difference in Arizona” ended up playing a role in his decision to move to Phoenix.
Where do we go from here?
There appears to be a long way to go in this saga. Plus, Roki Sasaki‘s posting period is rapidly approaching. Expect teams to prioritize Sasaki; if the team fortunate enough to sign him is one of those mentioned, it may change the market for Flaherty entirely. All we know is that whoever he does end up signing with, has a potential bargain in their hands.
Main Photo Credits: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
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