Last week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils were giving some thought to trading outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they look to shake up their roster. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports along similar lines, noting that the club is making Bohm available and is expected to look to free agents Alex Bregman or Willy Adames if they succeed in trading Bohm.
As the Phils look to make some changes, they only have so many avenues. Many of their position players are expensive veterans who are entrenched on the roster, either due to their performance, their contracts or both.
Bohm, on the other hand, is still in his arbitration years, slated for free agency after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8.1MM next year and Bohm would be due another raise for 2026.
On top of that, his performance has been more good than great. To this point in his career, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That translates to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, but in lopsided fashion, with a 128 in the first half and a 90 in the second. Also, most of his damage has been done with the platoon advantage. He has a career 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a subpar 91 wRC+ against righties.
Defensively, he hasn’t been great overall, though he has shown signs of improvement. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the first four years of his career but then had him at league average in 2024. Outs Above Average had Bohm in negative territory from 2020 to 2022 but slightly better than par in the past two years.
Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his career for a 135 wRC+ and has been a considered a strong defender at third base to boot. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his career while providing strong shortstop defense, but he’s reportedly willing to move to other infield positions. Most shortstops are capable of moving to other spots on the infield fairly smoothly, so it’s possible the Phils would expect Adames to provide better glovework than Bohm, even though it would be a new position for him.
Enacting these moves would have complications. Bohm’s modest projected salary is far less than what Bregman or Adames are likely to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182MM and Adames for $160MM over six years, both for average annual values in the $26-27MM range.
The payroll could be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has said he expects payroll to go up but it already has, in a way. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $263MM next year, which is $15MM higher than 2024 before they’ve even made any moves.
Their $282MM competitive balance tax number is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, that means they are already looking at a 95% tax on any money they add up to the final line of $301MM. Anything they add beyond that line would have a 110% tax rate.
Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make those numbers go up but it seems the Phils have at least some hope of making up the difference elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they have tried to use Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet loose from the White Sox. Crochet had a massive breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run average, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.
That performance will make Crochet very popular on the trade market, but so will his salary. Since he spent the early parts of his career either injured or working out of the bullpen, he’s only projected for a $2.9MM salary in 2025, with one more arb pass after that. The Phils have a strong rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, but Walker has fallen out of favor with the club, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter could be a factor in 2025 but he’s a big unknown since he still hasn’t made his major league debut and is coming back from a long Tommy John surgery layoff.
It would obviously be a wonderful series of chess moves if the Phillies could use Bohm to add a cheap ace to their rotation, perhaps finding a way to unload the two years and $36MM left on Walker’s contract, and then use the cost savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to replace Bohm at third.
However, doing all of that would require the agreement of other teams. Bohm’s trade value won’t be that high on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale adds that the Sox are worried by Bohm’s performance in the second half of 2024. He also wouldn’t have much value to the Sox anyway, since his control window is so short. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s hard to envision them return to contention in Bohm’s two remaining years of club control. The Phils might have to include some more prospect talent to get a deal done, which they might not want to do right now, given how much of the roster is filled with expensive veterans.
A far simpler outcome for Bregman would just be to re-sign with the Astros, where he has spent his entire career so far. It’s a far simpler fit and the two sides seemingly have had mutual interest in signing a new deal for years, but nothing has come together thus far.
It seems there might be a bit of a gap in terms of the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston wants Bregman back on a deal of about $156MM over six years but Bregman is looking to get to the $200MM line. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that the Astros have made an offer to Bregman. It’s unknown what they put on the table but the fact that he hasn’t yet accepted it suggests that it wasn’t up to his expectations. General manager Dana Brown has suggested the club might need to be creative with the budget this offseason but owner Jim Crane has suggested there’s money available for the right players and all signs have pointed to Bregman being the club’s highest priority.
Bregman has also been connected to the Tigers and Red Sox in the past week, with the latter club considering a move to first base for Rafael Devers, in order to accommodate Bregman. Adames has also been connected to the Red Sox, in addition to the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Both players rejected qualifying offers and would be subject to associated penalties, unless they re-sign with their respective 2024 clubs.
For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft if they sign a player that rejected a qualifying offer. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit anything, apart from the compensation pick they stand to receive if Bregman goes elsewhere, which would come after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.