San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vásquez had his fair share of struggles in 2024, pitching to a 4.87 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP across 98 innings. Furthermore, the 26-year-old right-hander posted the worst strikeout rate among all starting pitchers (minimum 90 innings). That and other poor peripherals paint a discouraging picture of Vasquez’s profile. But this is still a young pitcher (135 ⅔ career innings) with some intriguing elements that could be optimized.
Padres Starter Positioned for Rising Success
Stuff Upside
There were 20 total SPs who had at least 4 different pitches above 100 Stuff+ in 2024 (min. 60 innings). Mostly consists of the best pitchers in baseball along with some other more surprising names.
Here they are sorted by Location+ and other metrics
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Digging into Vazquez’s pitch profile, the depth and quality of his arsenal stand out. As indicated by the post above, Vazquez is a part of an impressive overall collection of starting pitchers who possess at least four different pitches at or above an average (100) Stuff+. The average ERA of that group outside of Vasquez is 3.59. Additionally, those pitchers held a strong 19.3% K-BB%. Those numbers closely resemble the 2024 season of Brewers’ ace Freddy Peralta. As we can see, Vasquez’ respective indicators were a far cry from that.
Here is his full arsenal with pitch usage percentages and where his pitches by Stuff+ rank among all starting pitchers (minimum 90 innings – 125 total players):
| Pitch | Usage% | Stuff+ | Stuff+ Rank |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 28.5% | 92 | 50th |
| Sinker | 15.7% | 103 | 12th |
| Cutter | 13.7% | 107 | 9th |
| Sweeper | 10.0% | 132 | T-13th |
| Curveball | 19.7% | 124 | T-8th |
| Changeup | 12.4% | 96 | 35th |
The possession of multiple fastballs as well as high quality off-speed offerings is a solid foundation for a starter. In addition, Randy Vasquez is a part of an even more exclusive club of pitchers in 2024. Among the same crew of staring pitchers with at least four above average pitches by Stuff+, an even smaller cohort of those locate at least four different pitches at an above average level in 2024.
The seven starting pitchers who had at least a 100 Stuff+ and a 100 Location+ on four or more pitchers include:
- George Kirby
- Zack Wheeler
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Joe Musgrove
- Logan Gilbert
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Randy Vásquez
Vasquez locates his four-seam and sinker the best (103 Location+) with his two breaking balls being close (101 Location+). Also, the two pitches that are below-average (cutter and changeup) are merely slightly below at a 99 Location+. And his 6.7% walk rate speaks to his ability to put the ball in the zone.
Notable Flaws
As outlined, there are aspects of Vasquez that provide areas of optimism. However, the results that he has put forth so far cannot be ignored despite some of the other positives. The problem albeit his strong Stuff+ is that it has not translated into swing and miss. His 18.9% whiff rate in 2024 was a bottom 10 mark among starting pitchers (minimum 400 PAs). The only pitch with a higher than average whiff rate is his four-seam which also gets crushed the hardest (.464 xwOBACON). And he simply did not generate enough chase outside the zone on his off-speed pitches. Interestingly, his highest Chase% pitches were his three fastballs exceeding 30% on both his sinker and cutter.
Moreover, he was not compensating for the lack of whiffs with inducing weak contact and a higher ground ball rate. His 38.7% ground ball rate is a concerning number since it is not accompanied by a good amount of strikeouts. Positively, the right hander has consistently displayed much higher ground ball rates in his minor league career. It is fair to expect it to recover and settle around a higher number.
To go along with his dearth of swing and miss, his quality of contact allowed was poor as well. Vasquez was one of just twelve starting pitchers to allow over a .400 xwOBACON (minimum 400 batters faced). Despite his good stuff and velocity, hitters had little issue picking up the ball out of Vasquez’s hands. This can be reflected in him owning one of the highest contact rates on pitches inside the zone (89.6%). The way to improve in 2025 and beyond could be through pitch mix tweaks.
Areas of Improvement
Vasquez boasts a wide arsenal of quality pitches and solid command. With four above average pitches by Stuff+, he can mix up his current usage numbers and find a different answer. Much of his struggles came versus the opposite hand (5.65 FIP). His four-seam got destroyed by left handed hitters (thrown 27.4%) while his cutter worked as a hard contact suppressor (thrown only 14.8%). Moving forward, bringing these marks closer together could bring a different result. Finding an out pitch against the opposite hand will be crucial in the future as his strikeout rate shriveled to 8.1% against them.
Comparatively speaking, Vazquez was fine against right handed hitters (4.03 FIP). His sweeper was effective against same-handed hitters while only being thrown 11.2%. Additionally, he flashed more swing and miss upside attacking same handed hitters. His four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball were quality swing and miss offerings against right handed hitters. And his sinker yielded nearly a 60% ground ball rate against them as well.
In 2025, Vasquez could lean more into his sinker and cutter and cut down the four-seam usage. The four-seamer is a useful pitch that he commands well, but he has better pitches and can dial its usage down a bit. Its characteristics are fairly ordinary, thrown from a 5.8 foot release height and getting an average amount of vertical movement. Both his sinker and cutter grade out as among the best of their pitch types in the league. The importance of wielding multiple fastballs and having optionality against hitters again proves to be significant.
Outlook
Expected to be in the Padres’ rotation, Vasquez has an opportunity to emerge. There are plenty of high stuff starting pitchers who flame out and wind up useful relief pitchers. Alternatively, there are some that continue to evolve and make changes to eventually stick as a starter. A somewhat similar case to Randy Vasquez is Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. Similarly, Nelson was a Stuff+ darling with solid location numbers. And his results as well as swing and miss consistently underperformed. He had a mini breakout in 2024, but there are still some questions around the legitimacy of that.
Randy Vasquez will be someone to watch in Spring Training and early into the season. The opportunity for innings is a start to be interesting as a possible sleeper. Finally, factor in some of the skills that Vasquez showed and there could be some value to be had in fantasy baseball in 2025.
Main Photo Credits: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
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