The post How did the White Sox 21-Game Losing Streak Happen? appeared first on Sox On 35th.
Last week, once the White Sox’ losing streak hit 20 games, I tweeted this:
Even after the team eventually ended the streak at 21 consecutive losses, my mind still couldn’t get off of the fact that the White Sox somehow lost 21 games in a row. Teams typically find a way to scratch one win out, or they run into a bad pitcher on their worst day, or something to that effect. How could none of that have happened?! So, I decided to find out just how the White Sox’ 21-game losing streak came to be.
Some games within the 21-game losing streak were a little less complex than others. What I mean is that some days, the White Sox simply got beat. But, as this exercise would go on to prove, it’s not always that straightforward. The path to 21 losses in a row involved a lot of blown leads, a lack of timely pitching or hitting, and just overall poor play on the field. None of those things individually really feel like they should lead to 21 losses in a row, so to help emphasize this point, I used Win Probability from both ESPN and Baseball Savant to illustrate my points.
With that, let’s begin.
Loss #1: July 10, 2024 (Doubleheader Game 2)
Final Score: Twins 3, White Sox 2
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 34.7%
The White Sox’ win probability reached as high as 82% in this game when Kyle Farmer flew out to Andrew Benintendi with the White Sox leading 2-0 in the top of the 6th. Drew Thorpe and Michael Soroka were unable to make the lead hold, ruining what was an overall strong day on the mound for Thorpe. Not to be missed, however, were the measly four hits the White Sox were able to string together throughout the entire game while striking out nine times.
After taking down the Twins in the first game of this day’s doubleheader, they have still been unable to put up against win against Minnesota this season. Overall, however, this game is the beginning of a trend you might be able to pick up on soon.
Brooks like that ball is GONE
pic.twitter.com/aO9nCMeeFY
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 10, 2024
Loss #2: July 12, 2024
Final Score: Pirates 4, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 55.9%
Here we see a game that the White Sox, according to ESPN, were slightly favored to win before it started. Understandably so, with Garrett Crochet starting on the mound and striking out four in two innings. However, from there, due to limitations he was pulled from the game, turning it over to Jonathan Cannon. Cannon pitched well, giving up four runs across six innings of work, but the White Sox’ offense was lifeless against Marco Gonzales.
The White Sox had as high as a 72% win probability in this game after Corey Julks’ fourth-inning single. However, in a game with no offense, as I mentioned at the top, it’s easy to break down this loss.
Loss #3: July 13, 2024
Final Score: Pirates 6, White Sox 2
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 34.9%
This was another one of those games that the Pirates were pretty much in control of throughout the day. Luis Ortiz outdueled Chris Flexen, though the White Sox did briefly tie the game 1-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning. However, once the top of the seventh saw the Pirates take the lead, the game wouldn’t change hands again. THe Pirates added three in the ninth to take away any hope of a ninth-inning comeback for the White Sox, with Tanner Banks and Justin Anderson the culprits in letting this game get away.
Shoutout to Bryan Reynolds!
pic.twitter.com/cLz3eZJDZM
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 13, 2024
The White Sox briefly had a 58% win probability after Robert Jr’s game-tying single in the sixth, but that was as close as they got.
Loss #4: July 14, 2024
Final Score: Pirates 9, White Sox 4
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 32.2%
It was a battle of bullpen days, with both starters failing to make it through the fourth inning. As a result, the game began as a back-and-forth affair, with the White Sox leading 1-0 and 2-1 at times early in the game. However, the wheels fell off in the fourth once Chad Kuhl entered the game, as he surrendered three runs in the fourth and four overall in his four innings of work. The White Sox would chip away with single runs in the fifth and seventh, but despite at one point having a 71% win probability early in the matchup, the Pirates would take over late without much of a threat.
Chalk this one up to another combination of a bad bullpen and a lack of hitting. If you’re counting though, yes, the White Sox did have a lead in all four games thus far.
Loss #5: July 19, 2024
Final Score: Royals 7, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 31.3%
For the first time in this losing streak, the White Sox didn’t have a lead in a game. Michael Wacha was brilliant over seven innings, Chris Flexen was not over 4.2 innings, and this game was over before it started.
Thank you, next.
Loss #6: July 20, 2024
Final Score: Royals 6, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 24.9%
For the second time in this losing streak, the White Sox didn’t have a lead in a game. Brady Singer was brilliant over seven innings, Jonathan Cannon was okay over six innings, and this game was over before it really started with the Royals against getting a lead in the first inning.
Thank you, next (again).
Loss #7: July 21, 2024
Final Score: Royals 4, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 24.9%
Believe it or not, despite getting dominated by Seth Lugo in a complete game victory, the White Sox held a 1-0 lead in this game in the sixth. Drew Thorpe was excellent over six scoreless innings, but the duo of Justin Anderson and John Brebbia couldn’t hold the lead, and the White Sox’ 59.4% win probability in the aforementioned sixth inning was brief.
That’s five games with a lead, albeit brief, and two without.
Loss #8: July 22, 2024
Final Score: Rangers 4, White Sox 3
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 31.6%
The first extra-inning loss of the streak comes here, with the White Sox dropping this one in 10 innings in Texas. Erick Fedde and Michael Lorenzen both started the game off strong and the White Sox – thanks to a Paul DeJong ninth-inning homer – found themselves three outs away from a victory. John Brebbia was tasked with getting the final three outs and couldn’t do it, giving up a game-tying single to Jonah Heim before Steven Wilson allowed the ghost runner to score in the 10th on a Wyatt Langford single.
The White Sox’s win probability would reach its highest point thus far at 89% after Brebbia got the first out of the ninth inning. Even better, the White Sox were one strike away from victory before Heim’s game-tying single. The South Siders had the lead three separate times in this game and just could not get it done. What a rough game.
Loss #9: July 23, 2024
Final Score: Rangers 3, White Sox 2
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 35%
The first inning bit the White Sox again on this day, even with ace Garrett Crochet on the mound. The lefty put the White Sox in a 2-0 hole that was insurmountable, though the White Sox did slowly chip away throughout the game. The eighth-inning run given up by Tanner Banks was the difference in a game in which the White Sox never had a lead.
Six games with a lead they eventually lost, and three without one at all.
Loss #10: July 24, 2024
Final Score: Rangers 10, White Sox 2
Original ESPN Win Probability: 21.6%
We’re almost halfway there. Despite the final score, the White Sox did have a 2-1 lead in this game in the third inning after a Luis Robert Jr. homer. Their win probability reached as high as 64% as they got into the fourth and fifth innings with a lead.
However, Chris Flexen and Sammy Peralta gave up the lead in the sixth, and one of FIVE PLAYERS the White Sox received for Aaron Bummer, Jared Shuster, gave up six runs in the eighth to turn this once-close game into a laugher.
Loss #11: July 25, 2024
Final Score: Rangers 2, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 25.5%
Another one-run loss for the White Sox, as Jonathan Cannon was outdueled by future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Once again, the White Sox held a brief lead early in this game after Korey Lee doubled home Brooks Baldwin in the third inning. The bullpen only threw two innings, giving up no runs across them, but the Rangers bullpen was equally as good.
Some days, you just get beat by the opposing pitcher. Most days you don’t feel too badly about it; however, we are now 11 games into this streak – it’s a little bit different at this point.
Loss #12: July 26, 2024
Final Score: Mariners 10, White Sox 0
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 35.4%
Some days, you’re the windshield. Other days, you’re the bug. Drew Thorpe was the bug, and this game was one of those times where you wish Major League Baseball had a slaughter rule.
Loss #13: July 27, 2024
Final Score: Mariners 6, White Sox 3
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 42.1%
After jumping out to a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the third inning, the White Sox were once again foiled by their inability to hold the lead. Erick Fedde had a good but not great start, giving up three runs across four innings of work. Justin Anderson allowed the game to get away from the White Sox in the fifth inning in relief of Fedde; but, on the bright side, Davis Martin made his season debut!
The brief lead the White Sox had, unsurprisingly, gave them their highest win probability of the game at 65%. It was all downhill from there. If you’re keeping track, we’re now at nine games with a lead at any point and four without.
Loss #14: July 28, 2024
Final Score: Mariners 6, White Sox 3
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 45.7%
Pitching and defense win championships, and well, both let the White Sox down on this day. Garrett Crochet struggled a bit in another one of his shortened outings, while the offense was never able to climb out of the 5-0 hole it was put in by the top of the third inning by Crochet and a defensive miscue from DeJong.
Cal continues to crush it in Chicago
pic.twitter.com/Q9vGsMw6mq
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) July 28, 2024
When you know you’re going against Bryce Miller, you know it’s going to be a tough day. For the White Sox, it was that and then some as the streak made it to 14 for the second time on the season.
Loss #15: July 29, 2024
Final Score: Royals 8, White Sox 5
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 39.8%
It was only fitting that such a terrible ballgame be the one that extended the losing streak to a then-season-long 15 games. With a 96% win probability and just five outs to get in the game in the top of the eighth inning, it seemed like the streak would be coming to an end. Chris Flexen gave the team six strong innings and uh oh here comes the bullpen again:
Back-to-back bombs!
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 30, 2024
Three homers later, including a Bobby Witt grand slam saw the White Sox blow their biggest lead of this losing streak in a pretty embarrassing and frustrating fashion. It also marks the 10th game out of 15 to this point in which the White Sox have led at any point.
Loss #16: July 30, 2024
Final Score: Royals 4, White Sox 3
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 34.1%
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the White Sox held a lead late in the game with under six outs to get before surrendering that lead and eventually losing the game. Their win probability rose as high as 79% in the bottom of the seventh inning before the combination of Fraser Ellard (who, interestingly, was making his MLB debut in a big situation) and Justin Anderson gave up three runs in the eighth.
9 goes down the line to score two!
pic.twitter.com/v0wFtBWKsz
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 31, 2024
If you’re still counting at home, that’s 11 games in which the White Sox have had a lead to protect – and two games in a row in the eighth inning. Still, the streak hit 16.
Loss #17: July 31, 2024
Final Score: Royals 10, White Sox 3
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 26.6%
It was another poor outing for Drew Thorpe, who struggled his second time seeing the Royals. He gave up six runs in five innings of work without striking out a single hitter. In total, the Royals were able to put up 16 hits in a game that really never felt all that close. The Royals did most of their late-game damage against Sammy Peralta, turning it from a three-run game to a seven-run laugher. Brady Singer also dominated the White Sox for a second time on this losing streak.
For a brief moment in the bottom of the second inning, the White Sox had a 55% win probability when they were able to tie up the game at three via a Dominic Fletcher RBI single. That fact wouldn’t matter much when Thorpe would surrender another run to break the tie and the White Sox would be unable to battle back.
Loss #18: August 2, 2024
Final Score: Twins 10, White Sox 2
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 17.7%
We’re almost to the end; there is just one last horrendous series to cover.
Much like the series finale against the Royals, this was a much better game on paper through seven innings than what the box score would eventually show. While Davis Martin did give up four runs without getting through the fourth inning, the White Sox were trailing just 4-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth, thanks in part to Miguel Vargas’ first home run with the White Sox. Then, the eighth inning happened again, as did the controversial exchange between Steven Wilson and Pedro Grifol.
By the time a homer was hit and some shoddy defense was played, the White Sox had given up six runs in the eighth and turned another game into a laugher. This is a game that never really felt within the White Sox’ control, however.
Loss #19: August 3, 2024
Final Score: Twins 6, White Sox 2
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 25.9%
This game was a back-and-forth affair through six innings, with the White Sox eventually battling back every time. However, they were never able to gain the lead in this one, keeping the game at 2-2 in the seventh. That’s when the game would once again get away, with Touki Toussaint and John Brebbia both failing to get the job done.
Willi worked for that one
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 4, 2024
The duo combined to give up five earned runs in 3.2 innings of work (Brebbia worked just 0.2 of those innings while giving up three runs), with Max Kepler’s seventh-inning home run serving as the difference in this ballgame. The White Sox never got higher than a 50% win probability in this game.
Loss #20: August 4, 2024
Final Score: Twins 13, White Sox 7
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 27.8%
This game was so stupid, it deserved to be the game that pushed the losing streak into record-breaking territory. The White Sox had already surrendered eight runs in two innings before most people had a chance to blink. The club would slowly chip away at the deficit, getting it to as close as 8-6 and 10-7 at various points in the game. But, then that pesky eighth inning came around again, and it put the White Sox away for good and prevented a truly fascinating story of how such a long losing streak would come to an end.
Even though it got closer at the end, this is absolutely one of those games within this streak that the White Sox had no business winning or even coming close to winning. As before: it’s okay to have these games! But you should probably try to make sure you win more in between them.
Loss #21: August 5, 2024
Final Score: Athletics 5, White Sox 1
Opening ESPN Win Probability: 26.1%
And, we’ve made it folks. The final day of this horrendous streak. Like many games before this one, the White Sox never had a lead in this game, getting as close as tying the game at one on an RBI single by Andrew Benintendi in the fourth inning. But, Ky Bush struggled to find the strike zone in his major league debut and paid dearly for it.
Like many games this streak, once it hit 3-1 in the fourth inning, the lead almost felt insurmountable. And, like many games this streak, that proved to be true, as White Sox pitching would’ve needed to be perfect to win this one.
Here are some interesting stats from this 21-game losing streak that I feel are pretty relevant.
- 26% of all runs given up over this period (36 of 136) were given up in the eighth inning.
- SP has a combined 5.40 ERA; RP had a combined 6.49 ERA, including John Brebbia’s insane 14.85 ERA in just 6.2 innings and Steven Wilson’s 16.50 ERA in 6.0 innings.
- Hitters hit .195/.243/.309 throughout this streak – by far (and unsurprisingly) the worst in baseball.
- The White Sox had a lead in 11 of their 21 losses.
It’s much of what we already knew/assumed: when you lose that many games in a row, it isn’t just one person’s fault. It takes an entire team collectively playing some of the worst baseball they could play, all at the exact same time. It’s a fascinating study into the human element of the game and how it relates to the concept of regression to the mean. Eventually, you’d figure they’d have to win a game over the course of 21 of them, right? But that’s the human element we all know and love.
But what are the actual chances that something like this occurs? Here’s some rough probability math for you. If you were to take each game’s Win Probability and estimate the probability that the White Sox would lose EVERY single one of those games based on the original game probability, the result would be 0.025%. Yes, the probability that the White Sox would lose every single one of those games in a row was just 0.025%.
(NOTE: SKIP THIS PARAGRAPH IF YOU DON’T LIKE MATH) A few things to clarify the above. First, I don’t know much about ESPN Analytics’ calculation of initial win probabilities, so I can’t assess their complete accuracy. I also realize there is a fatal flaw in these assumptions, with the reality that, at the beginning of a baseball game, a team’s chances of winning that game are probably 50/50 (this is how Baseball Savant treats win probabilities). If you do it that way, the probability that this streak occurred was .000048%. This truly would make it seem even crazier, given that a 50% chance to win a game is way higher than the White Sox’ chances in most of these games, per ESPN Win Probabilities. Finally, I don’t know if oversimplifying it and doing the math such that each game is considered an independent event is *technically* correct, but that should just give you an idea of my logic as I tried to arrive at a number – even as a Math major, I never loved the probability lessons, but I digress.
Friday began a new era of sorts on the South Side. Pedro Grifol and his record-setting streak are out, and Grady Sizemore will be tasked with being the bridge man to the next regime. He is still winless to this point, and though the roster hasn’t changed at all, a fresh face in the dugout has been a welcome sight for White Sox fans. Maybe a few wins here and there won’t be too much to ask for over the next eight weeks of the season.
Hopefully, this is the start of newer, better memories to come. But if not, we will all be together bonded as Sox fans by your individual memories of this 21-game losing streak and the insane mathematical luck that brought it to life.
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Featured Image: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
The post How did the White Sox 21-Game Losing Streak Happen? appeared first on Sox On 35th.