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Fantasy Impact of Alex Bregman Likely Leaving Houston

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The Houston Astros have been one of the busiest clubs this offseason. From trading away superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker to letting franchise legend Alex Bregman test free agency, the Astros’ lineup figures to look a little different in 2025, and it could have a substantial fantasy impact with the players involved.

Key Moves

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Among the biggest moves of the winter was the Chicago Cubs acquiring the 27-year-old superstar from the Houston Astros. Included in the return package was corner infielder Isaac Paredes, presumably the replacement for Alex Bregman. Along with Paredes, the Astros acquired pitcher Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith, who the Astros are very excited about.

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After signing 35-year-old first baseman José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million contract in 2022, the Astros have signed a 33-year-old first baseman in Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million contract in 2024. For what it’s worth, the Walker deal should age much friendlier than the Abreu contract.

Fantasy Impact of Astros Offseason Moves

Isaac Paredes

The acquisition of Paredes clearly signals the end for Alex Bregman in Houston. The Astros conveniently replaced him with a hitter whose skills align perfectly with his new home ballpark. Paredes’ extreme pull approach will be a perfect fit. Over the last three seasons, Paredes has hit 72 home runs despite his poor batted-ball metrics. His expected home run total would climb to 79 if all of his batted balls were at MinuteMaid Park. Furthermore, in 2024, he had 13 expected home runs at his old park at Wrigley Field, compared to 26 in his new home.

Paredes is the pulled fly ball king of baseball. He ranked second in 2024 with a 43.3% pull rate on his fly balls. Combined with a strong approach at the plate, he projects favorably in the Astros lineup.

Alex Bregman

Similarly, Bregman employed a turn-and-burn method to pull home runs into the Crawford Boxes. His departure from this ballpark will undoubtedly have a negative effect on his future home run totals. The quality of contact numbers were never formidable for Bregman and now figure to decline more as he ages into his thirties. In addition, opposing pitchers are seemingly content with challenging Bregman in the zone.

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As pointed out by Eno Sarris, this trend marked the beginning of the end for some players. It is also worth noting that this likely had a direct impact on Bregman’s walk rate taking a significant drop (6.9% in 2024 compared to 11.9% for his career). So while he hit more home runs (26) than he has since the rabid ball year in 2019, he also posted the lowest OBP (.315) since his rookie season.

Christian Walker

While the contracts are similar between Walker and Abreu, Walker has a better and more sustainable profile to have future success. When the Astros signed Abreu in 2022, he had posted the lowest home run total of his career. While he still had a productive season, slashing .304/.378/.446 (137 wRC), this was still an aging player with an elevated chase rate and possible warning signs with his batted ball metrics. On the other hand, Walker has displayed strong barrel rates over the last three seasons accompanied by a sound approach at the plate. His chase rate is not an issue, and he has the most Defensive Runs Saved by a first baseman since 2022.

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Walker’s production should increase as he steps into the heart of one of the better lineups in baseball. Furthermore, he gets a ballpark upgrade in terms of right-handed home run production. With the Astros, Christian Walker once again projects as a strong fantasy option when targeting first basemen in 2025.

 

Photo Credit: © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

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