It has not been a pretty start to the 2025 campaign out in Cincinnati. Their outfield has been a big reason for their struggles. The Reds outfield core of TJ Freidl, Jake Fraley, Blake Dunn, and Gavin Lux were expected to be towards the bottom of the league regarding overall production, but they have somehow underperformed their already low expectations.
Jake Fraley
The Reds right fielder is seemingly far removed from his career-best 2022 and 2023 seasons, where he posted a .812 and .783 OPS, respectively. It has been downhill since then, as a .716 OPS, 95 OPS+ 2024 has since resulted in a .333 OPS, -9 OPS+ 2025.
He is currently slashing .148/.148/.185 on the season. His approach at the plate has been poor, as well as his contact quality.
.205 xBA – (26th percentile)
.253 xSLG – (12th percentile)
81.0 Avg Exit Velocity – (3rd percentile)
0.0 Barrel% – (1st percentile)
21.7 Hard-Hit% – (8th percentile)
Perhaps the biggest indication of his poor contact quality is in an at-bat on Sunday, Fraley was served a juicy 88 MPH cutter with minimal movement down the middle of the plate courtesy of Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick, to which Fraley lofted a soft line drive into center fielder Garrett Mitchell’s glove with an exit velocity of 77 MPH, traveling just 231 feet.
The struggle at the plate seems to have carried over on defense, as also in the series in Milwaukee, Fraley let a ground ball skip right underneath his glove, going all the way to the wall, allowing Sal Frelick to reach third on what should have been a single.
TJ Freidl
Freidl came into the season as the outfielder with the highest expectations, which, although it isn’t saying much, still brought an ounce of excitement within the fan base as they hope he could recapture some of his 2023 magic. He has been underwhelming but decent so far, slashing .283/.325/.368 for a .693 OPS. This is still far from the .800 OPS he showed he was capable of in 2023, but those days may be simply the past now, as every day it seems as if his 2023 season was more of an outlier rather than his baseline.
Maybe a surprising factor of Freidl’s game is his speed. He is currently in the 2nd percentile in sprint speed, making him one of the slowest players in the league. He has manned centerfield at a decent level so far this year despite the massive drop off in speed, but he is no longer a true threat out there or on the base paths.
Blake Dunn
Dunn made the roster in part because of Will Benson’s demotion to Triple-A. However, he also made it because of his speed and versatility. His 99th percentile sprint speed allows him to roam all three outfield positions comfortably. Offensively, he isn’t expected to do much and has slashed .154/.267/.385 for a .652 OPS. This offensive production is certainly not the best. Still, offense was never the expectation out of his output anyway. He’s done a fine job of defense, making spot starts or subbing into late-game situations.
Gavin lux
Lux is currently splitting time between the infield and the outfield. In his appearances in the outfield, he has efficiently handled the routine plays. However, there are times when it is evident that he is an infielder still adjusting. Learning the outfield as some balls hit with spin still turn him around the wrong way.
He is certainly not fit to be a true everyday outfielder, which is fine. Players like Blake Dunn are able to step in during the later innings to supplement the overall team defense when it matters most.
Offensively, Lux has run into some poor luck, making hard contact directly to defenders multiple times in the young season. He is currently slashing .219/.306/.281 for a .587 OPS. He has been slotted behind Elly De La Cruz for the past handful of games at the cleanup spot. The organization is hoping the former Dodger can return to form soon, as he poses as an important offensive piece in the lineup. His plate discipline is still there, as he’s drawn four walks in 36 plate appearances so far this year, but other aspects of his offensive game have to start clicking as well, in order to protect De La Cruz in this thin lineup.
Possible Solutions
While this is not what Reds fans would like to hear, the best gateway to success for the outfield core is time. Time for Freidl to find his groove once again, to at least return to a mid-700s OPS guy. Lux needs to learn the position a little more and tighten up his defense out there, while returning to at least a mid-700s OPS guy. Will Benson needs to be recalled, and hopefully, he will show flashes of dominance like he did in 2023. Time for perhaps another Rece Hinds stint, where he launched multiple tape measure shots into the Cincinnati sky in 2024.
The organization has shown no urgency in making a splash in the trade market. Meaning any outfield solutions will most likely come from within. There is still hope for the Reds outfield core, as there is still obvious talent around in the organization. The only question is, will it clock for them? Or will they continue to struggle collectively as a group?
Main Photo Credits: Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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