Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo, and Rhett Lowder. It’s an interesting mix in the Reds rotation, with the ability to be among the best in 2025. Cincinnati will bank on young pitchers flourishing, newcomers continuing their success, their top pairing trying to reach another gear in their games, and overall taking down opposing lineups to accommodate their lackluster offensive group.
Hunter Greene
The former 2017 second-overall pick broke out in a big way in 2024, posting a 2.75 ERA in 150 1/3 innings, both career bests. In 2022 and 2023, Greene made 24 and 22 starts and posted a brutal 4.44 and 4.82 ERA, respectively. His numbers across the board were similar throughout all three seasons, but the main contributor to his breakout season was his limiting the long ball.
In 2022 and 2023, Greene allowed 1.72 and 1.53 HR/9. In 2024, Greene cut that number in half, with 0.72 HR/9. He has always been prone to fly balls, which is unfortunate as he spends half of his starts in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He was also getting barreled up at a high rate.
2023 Metrics:
30.5 K% – (96th percentile)
30.7 Whiff% – (81st percentile)
9.6 BB% – (32nd percentile)
9 Barrel% – (29th percentile)
44.1 Hard-Hit% – (16th percentile)
35.9 GB% – (15th percentile)
2024 Metrics:
27.7 K% – (81st percentile)
29.7 Whiff% – (81st percentile)
9.3 BB% – (31st percentile)
5.2 Barrel% – (87th percentile)
32.5 Hard-Hit% – (92nd percentile)
35 GB% – (9th percentile)
Per the metrics, he vastly improved the opponent’s contact quality, limiting loud contact while striking out hitters at about the same rate. While he struggled with keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes, it is already evident that he can work around those flaws. At just 25 years old, Greene has seemingly flipped the page from his early career struggles and become a perennial CY Young candidate for years to come.
Brady Singer
The Kansas City Royals newcomer will join the Reds rotation, as he was traded for his former Florida Gator teammate Jonathan India. He will most likely slot right behind Hunter Greene as the number two starter.
Since debuting in 2020, Singer has had his share of ups and downs, with none more apparent than the three years from 2022 to 2024, where he went from a 3.23 ERA to a 5.52 ERA, then back down to a 3.71 ERA. Despite this, he has been extremely consistent in health and availability, making 12 starts in the 60-game COVID season of 2020, then at least 27 in the following four seasons.
The problem with Singer is that despite his 3.71 ERA in the 2024 season, his underlying metrics present a huge red flag. Singer allowed some loud contact as he was 25th percentile in Hard Hit% (41.7%), 43rd percentile in Barrel% (8%), and 47th percentile in opponent average exit velocity (88.9 MPH). Even in his 3.23 ERA 2022 season, he was 24th percentile in Hard-Hit% (40.9%), 33rd percentile in Barrel% (8.2%), and 28th percentile in opponent average exit velocity (89.3 MPH).
Returning to 2024, one of the biggest concerns is Singer’s 4.65 xERA. This is especially concerning because he will be toeing the rubber at the new ballpark. His HR/FB (home run to fly ball rate) has always floated at around 12% to 14%, which is bound to increase as he transitions from Kauffman Stadium to Great American Ball Park. One of the positives is that he’s generated ground balls at an elite level throughout his career, constantly hovering around 50%.
Despite the past successful seasons, Singer’s 2025 is about as unpredictable as it is.
Andrew Abbott
25-year-old Andrew Abbott is having a hot start to his young career, as he’s posted a 3.87 and 3.72 ERA in his rookie and sophomore seasons, respectively. Abbott has technically outperformed his peripherals, as his xERA has been in the fours in both years, and his FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA in both years, standing at a poor 5.04 mark in 2024.
His metrics stayed relatively similar from year one to year two, besides his K%. It dropped drastically, from 26.1 K% (72nd percentile) in 2023 to just 19.5 K% (22nd percentile) in 2024. An arsenal change was not the reason, as his pitch mix stayed almost identical.
Abbott was all over the place in terms of his Baseball Savant metrics in 2024.
88.2 MPH opponent average velocity – (68th percentile)
33.5 Hard-Hit% – (86th percentile)
9.3 Barrel% – (19th percentile)
34.7 GB% – (8th percentile)
8.9 BB% – (35th percentile)
19.5 K% – (22nd percentile)
22.6 Whiff% – (26th percentile)
26.3 Chase% – (22nd percentile)
4.02 xERA – (49th percentile)
Abbott is one of the toughest predictions to make regarding his 2025 outlook. Still, seeing as he’s been able to work through his below-league-average metrics for two straight seasons now, another 130-inning season with a high three ERA should be in the books for his 2025 season.
Nick Martinez
Martinez is, plain and simple, one of the most underrated pitchers in the league right now. He is a flexible option, as he can come into the game for one inning, be a long reliever, or be a valuable starter.
Martinez is coming from his first season in Cincinnati, where he posted a 3.10 ERA in 142 1/3 innings (42 G, 16 GS). He was one of the most valuable players on the Reds in 2024, and his metrics all support his performance.
3.19 xERA – (84th percentile)
86.4 MPH opponent average exit velocity – (94th percentile)
33.9 Chase% – (95th percentile)
23.1 Whiff% – (29th percentile)
20.4 K% – (28th percentile)
3.2 BB% – (99th percentile)
5.1 Barrel% – (88th percentile)
30.5 Hard-Hit% – (96th percentile)
His elite soft contact skills are all thanks to his change-up, which he utilizes 22% of the time. While he isn’t a strikeout pitcher, he is elite at limiting hard contact and keeping runners off the bases. It would be interesting to see if he gets incorporated into the starting rotation full-time in 2025 or if he continues to be a long reliever who makes the occasional start.
Nick Lodolo
The 27-year-old Lodolo is looking to break out in a big way in 2025. He was excellent as a rookie in 2022 but has battled injuries and performance fluctuations in the following years.
Looking at his Baseball Savant page, it is evident that he had solid to above-average metrics in 2024, with multiple categories being above league average.
44.9 GB% – (63rd percentile)
7.5 BB% – (57th percentile)
24.7 K% – (64th percentile)
28.1 Whiff% – (70th percentile)
30.2 Chase% – (67th percentile)
Despite throwing just 115 1/3 innings with a mediocre 4.76 ERA, Lodolo is seemingly ready to run the page on his early career inconsistencies, especially judging by his 3.72 xERA and 3.95 FIP, which suggests his numbers may have been inflated a bit in 2024.
Rhett Lowder
The Wake Forest product debuted MLB last season, joining the Reds rotation in September and making six starts with a minuscule 1.17 ERA. He has been sidelined to begin 2025 spring training with right elbow soreness, so it is unclear what his current timetable looks like. If he avoids major surgery, he is projected to make the big league roster in 2025.
Lowder is not expected to keep his ERA in the ones for the remainder of his career, and he wasn’t a true 1.17 ERA pitcher in the small sample size either. He struggled with command, walking 10.9% of batters faced, and struck out just 17.2%. However, it is always a positive sign to see a young prospect perform well in their first cup of coffee in the big leagues, no matter the metrics.
Reds Rotation Expectations in 2025
Every successful rotation needs an ace; the Reds have that in Hunter Greene. They also have a hopeful number two guy in Brady Singer to create a top pairing with Greene. The three spots will most likely go to Lodolo, who has shown flashes and is now waiting to put it all together in year four. The fourth spot will be another lefty, Abbott, who’s coming off of back-to-back solid seasons and looking to replicate the success again. In the fifth spot, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, or other minor league call-ups are all suited for the spot. If Martinez can make an entire season’s worth of starts, he would likely be the best fifth starter in MLB. Oddly, he splits time with the youngsters, which still creates a stable back end of the rotation.
With a manager and culture change in Cincinnati, thanks to Terry Francona, the Reds rotation could be ready for a return to the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Main Photo Credits: Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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