Steven Matz, 33, enters the 2025 season in jeopardy with the Cardinals, looking to re-establish himself as a major-league caliber starter.
Cardinals Pitcher Seeks Recovery Following Injury
Matz has struggled with injuries since he signed with the Cardinals as a free agent in 2022. In 2024, he pitched in only 12 games as a result of a lower-back strain. In those 12 games, he was unimpressive, posting a 5.08 ERA and 33 K in 44.1 IP.
Matz is entering the final year of his four-year, $44 million contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. As the Cardinals approach a period of re-tooling and attempting to lower their payroll, Matz’s expiring contract could make him a trade candidate.
As the Cardinals left-hander looks to continue his major-league career, this upcoming season will be vital.
Matz’s Past Performance
Matz, who began his career with the New York Mets in 2015, quickly emerged as a serviceable starter. He steadily posted numbers that hovered around the league average through his first six seasons. However, Matz had the best season of his career in a contract year with the Toronto Blue Jays.
He threw 150 innings with a 117 ERA+ and 144 K, earning him a sizable contract with a Cardinals team that was desperate for pitching at the time.
Yet, his tenure with the Cardinals has been, to put it mildly, disappointing. He has started only 34 games in three seasons, mainly due to injuries. During stretches in 2023, his poor performance even pushed him out of the rotation and into a long-relief role in the bullpen.
With the Cardinals having moved on from Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, Matz certainly has the opportunity to stay in the rotation. The question is, will his performance merit it?
Matz’s Place Within the Organization
As the Cardinals’ attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado have stalled, they have made it clear that they will attempt to deal with a pitcher in order to lower their payroll. 2024 trade deadline acquisition Erick Fedde is the most likely candidate, but Matz and Miles Mikolas, both on bloated contracts, could be moved to a willing organization.
Mikolas, like Matz, has struggled immensely over the past couple of seasons. Convincing an organization to take on either contract might be a tall task. It is likely that both pitchers will remain with the organization through 2025.
Therefore, the Cardinals rotation, as it stands, will likely feature some ordering of Sonny Gray, Fedde, Matz, Mikolas, and Andre Pallante.
However, the Cardinals’ intention to review their internal options at many positions indicates that top prospects such as Tink Hence or Quinn Mathews may see the mound in 2025.
A Move to the Bullpen?
Matz, frankly, will need to outperform his career numbers to avoid another move to the bullpen.
According to Baseball Savant, his curveball, sinker, and slider have all seen decreases in vertical movement over the last three seasons, while his WHIP and walk rate have increased over the past two. In his time with the Cardinals, he has routinely struggled to avoid traffic on the base paths.
If he is able to stay healthy, his spot in the rotation will depend on his outperforming Mikolas and Pallante in this facet of his game.
However, a move to the bullpen might signify a positive evolution in Matz’s career. In 23 career appearances as a reliever, Matz has posted a 2.97 ERA and a 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, both of which are far better than his career numbers as a starter. Although his fastball sits at only 94 mph on average, the reduced workload of a long-reliever role could aid in keeping him healthy and provide a slight uptick to this number.
No matter his role, it is certain that, in a contract year, Matz needs to stay healthy in order to maximize his value both to the organization and on the open market come the off-season.
Main Photo Credits: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
The post Cardinals Pitcher Seeks Recovery Following Injury appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.