A poor showing in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ upcoming six-game homestand could spell the end for manager Derek Shelton. At least that was the speculation late Sunday night on the #1 Cochran Sports Showdown on the local CBS-TV affiliate. The #1 Cochran show, which is named after a local automobile dealership rather than 1915 Cincinnati Reds pitcher Goat Cochran or rockabilly legend Eddie Cochran, is a panel show that deals in intelligent sports talk as opposed to a sensationalist radio talk show equivalent of clickbait, so this writer finds what they say worth paying attention to.
Bad Pirates Homestand Might Spell Doom for Derek Shelton
The homestand begins Tuesday evening with three games against the Chicago Cubs and three more against the San Diego Padres, two of the best teams in baseball. The Pirates returned home after a west coast trip that saw them win three of six. Their record now sits at a disappointing 11-18, “good” for last place in the National League Central Division. Like last season, majority owner Bob Nutting and general manager Ben Cherington stated that it was time for the Pirates to start winning.
The Pirates retained Shelton after a disheartening 2024 season on the recommendation of Cherington. Explaining his recommendation at the time, Cherington praised Shelton for doing “a lot of the aspects of the job very well and at a high level.” However, he then added that Shelton “has targets that he needs to improve on.” It seemed an odd thing to say about a manager with five years under his belt.
Will Nutting Pull the Trigger?
The word around Pittsburgh is that Nutting is not a happy camper. First, there was the controversy about the removal of a Roberto Clemente tribute from the right field wall at PNC Park in favor of an advertisement. Then there was the discovery of some 10,000 “Bucco Bricks” purchased by fans in a local scrap yard. On top of all that, Nutting can’t be happy with how the team is playing. He doesn’t like being embarrassed.
There’s no precedent for Nutting firing a manager during the season. That is, unless one counts the ridiculous handling of Clint Hurdle’s dismissal on the last day of the 2019 season. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. There’s a first time for everything. Besides, Nutting fired GM David Littlefield during the 2007 season. Pirates fans say Nutting is “too cheap” to fire Shelton while he’s still under contract. But managers Jim Tracy, John Russell, and Hurdle and GMs Littlefield and Neal Huntington were all fired by Nutting while owed money.
Examining the Pirates Tenure of Shelton
Entering the homestand, Shelton’s record as Pirates manager is 305-432. It includes three last-place finishes and two fourth-place finishes in the Central Division. He hasn’t been dealt the best of hands, with weak rosters with which to work. That’s true this year, too. It hasn’t helped that his projected starting first baseman, Spencer Horwitz, has yet to play due to offseason wrist surgery. Or that his second baseman, Nick Gonzales, has been out since Opening Day with a “nondisplaced fracture of the left ankle.” Or that his No. 2 starter, Jared Jones, has been shut down since spring training. Offseason addition Tommy Pham has been a bust so far.
Without Jones, Shelton has had little choice but to insert Carmen Mlodzinski into the rotation, a role for which he’s miscast. Several pitching prospects, including No. 1 prospect Bubba Chandler, are expected to debut in 2025. But they’re not in the majors yet, and that seems to be out of Shelton’s hands. Horwitz recently began a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona. It’s likely to be a long one, given that this amounts to spring training for him.
Pirates farm report: Spencer Horwitz begins rehab assignment with Double-A Altoona https://t.co/2oPQEDnuJ7
— Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (@PittsburghPG) April 28, 2025
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It’s easy to say that Shelton brings in the wrong pitcher or the wrong pinch hitter after the fact. Every baseball fan has those complaints about every manager. Let’s look at some other common criticisms of Shelton from Pirates fans and media alike.
He Doesn’t Stick with a Set Lineup
That’s true. Most managers don’t these days. Batting orders are informed by analytics. In any event, there’s no proven correlation between a set lineup and winning. That said, the Pirates’ batting order has been more consistent lately.
He Doesn’t Use the Stolen Base Enough
That’s been true, until this season. The Pirates’ highest stolen base figure under Shelton was 105 in 2023 and 2024. That’s less than one per game. His teams took advantage of stolen base opportunities 7.5 percent of the time in 2023. That’s the highest percentage during his tenure. However, that’s changed so far in 2025. The Pirates have stolen 36 bases in 29 games, with Oneil Cruz leading the majors with 12, and have availed themselves of 12.6 percent of opportunities to steal. If those trends continue – and Shelton remains – they’ll be highs for Shelton.
He Doesn’t Play “Small Ball” Often Enough
That’s true, too. Shelton doesn’t often play “small ball.” The year 2023 was when he took advantage of sacrifice bunt opportunities most frequently, and that was just 1.8 percent of the time opportunities arose. However, this writer, not being a fan of “small ball,” won’t indict Shelton for it. Sorry, folks, but I find “small ball,” the sacrifice bunt, and the “productive out” to be highly overrated, mostly useless strategies. The only “productive out” for me is the sacrifice fly. For fans of the sacrifice bunt, any run expectancy table will tell you that a man on first base with no outs scores far more frequently than a man on second base with one out. So, there’s that.
His Teams Aren’t Fundamentally Sound
Bingo! This is the strongest case against Shelton. Pirates observers keep seeing the same mental mistakes, game after game, in the field and on the bases. Batters look at fastballs right over the heart of the plate and chase pitches out of the strike zone. The smart approach to hitting that we saw at the beginning of spring training has disappeared.
Shelton certainly isn’t telling his players to keep making these mistakes. But the bottom line is that Shelton’s message isn’t getting through to the players. It happens when a guy stays in one place for too long. Pirates fans saw it with Chuck Tanner and Hurdle, both better managers than Shelton. More recently, Pittsburgh hockey fans saw it with Penguins coach Mike Sullivan, a man with two Stanley Cup championships on his resumé.
Lack of Urgency to Win and “Kick Expletive”
I’ll throw in a complaint of my own, my biggest against Shelton. With the caveat that we don’t know what he’s like outside of the public eye, there doesn’t seem to be an urgency to win emanating from the manager’s office, and attitudes start at the top.
Contrast that with Terry Francona, who came out of retirement to manage the Reds this season. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports Weekly, in Francona’s initial address to the team, he told them their job every day was to “kick somebody’s ass.” (What Nightengale actually wrote was “kick somebody’s [expletive].”) On a day when the Reds had split-squad games scheduled, Francona declined to manage against his former team, the Cleveland Guardians. He wanted no mushy reunions. They’re his enemy now. He told Nightengale he wants to “kick their ass” (or expletive). After Sunday’s action, the Reds are 16-13, in second place in the Central.
Shelton surely didn’t get into baseball or take the Pirates gig to lose games. But it might have gone a long way had he conveyed that he, too, likes to kick expletive.
(By the way, hard-thinking social media critics say that the Pirates could have had Francona but were “too cheap.” That’s false. Francona’s job with the Reds was arranged through his close friend and Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman. No other team knew Francona would entertain an offer to come out of retirement.)
If the Pirates Fire Shelton, Then What?
The people’s choice is Shelton’s bench coach, Don Kelly. Everybody in Pittsburgh loves him and refers to him as “Donny,” as if they know him. Some Pirates fans do know him. Kelly grew up in Mount Lebanon, a suburb south of Pittsburgh, and played high school ball for Mount Lebanon High School. He played college ball at Point Park University, located in downtown Pittsburgh. He played for the Pirates in 2007 and is Neil Walker’s brother-in-law.
I say, hire Kelly as interim manager and see whether he lights a fire under these Pirates. But I also say, no more so-called “managers in waiting” like Russell or Shelton with no major league experience. Let Kelly get his on-the-job training while Cherington undergoes an extensive search. Kelly may prove to be the right man. But the next manager should be an experienced leader with some “street cred,” who will be worth a few extra wins just because of who he is. Hurdle was that guy when he came to Pittsburgh in 2011. Other examples of managers whose mere presence elevated teams are Bruce Bochy (Texas Rangers), Francona (Cleveland Indians/Guardians), Joe Maddon (Chicago Cubs), and Jack McKeon (Florida Marlins). I’m talking about that level of manager.
The Last Word
We’re getting ahead of ourselves here. First, let’s see how things go in the current homestand. The Pirates will send Andrew Heaney, Mlodzinski, and Paul Skenes to the mound against the Cubs. Chicago will counter with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Colin Rea. Matchups for the Padres series are unknown except that they’ll open with Dylan Cease against Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday reliever Dennis Santana was placed on the bereavement list, a development that certainly won’t help the Pirates’ chances of holding onto late-inning leads. Hunter Stratton has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis to take his place.
Photo Credit: © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
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