Throughout his term in office, Mayor Brandon Johnson pointedly has divided Chicago into two opposing blocs. One is his base of unionized government workers and community activists who share his fervent belief in the rectifying power of progressive policies. The other, which he eyes with suspicion and scorn, is everyone else. There is no in-between.
As Johnson himself told a church audience earlier this month: “If you ain’t with us, you just gotta go. … Playing nice with other people who ain’t about us — it’s just a waste of exercise.” Not even 72 hours later, three top city officials abruptly resigned.
But by playing exclusively to his leftist alliance, Johnson may be weakening his reelection chances, our research shows. In a new Harris Poll that surveyed 1,007 Chicago and Cook County residents, 92% of Chicago adults say the mayor is obligated to govern with the entire city in mind, not just his supporters. Six in 10 also say he’s made too many enemies to govern effectively, according to the poll, which surveyed residents in December.
Bottom line: Only 23% of Chicago residents approve of Johnson’s performance as the city’s chief executive and think he deserves to be reelected.
Wittingly or not, Johnson has given people plenty of reasons to give up on him, starting with his costly agenda. Time and again, the mayor has pushed for big tax increases on, as he’s put it, the “ultra-rich” to expand social services to poor people who he notes are victims of racism.
When his efforts were rejected — the first time by taxpaying voters themselves — he didn’t propose cutting personnel or other expenditures to free up money for his new outlays. Instead, he has repeatedly called for borrowing the money, asking the City Council most recently to approve an $830 million bond derided by critics as reckless because of its stretched-out repayment schedule. At a recent community meeting, he vowed to try again to raise taxes on property sales of $1 million and up.
He’s also reminded everyone that throughout it all, he has protected City Hall’s mostly unionized workforce of more than 32,000 employees from layoffs or pay cuts.
Our survey shows most residents aren’t aligned with him. Ranking taxes as their top concern (along with public safety), two-thirds of Chicagoans say they disagree with Johnson’s priorities, and 72% yearn for a moderate mayor, rather than a progressive or conservative. Three-quarters, moreover, agree that unions and other special interest groups have too much clout.
His own personal behavior may also be costing him support. The city’s inspector general recently accused Johnson and his predecessor, Lori Lightfoot, of repeatedly withholding documents and otherwise impeding investigations of high-ranking city officials. Johnson also failed to report valuable gifts he received and stashed in a City Hall storage room, the inspector general said in a separate report.
When Johnson was elected in early 2023, Chicago and the rest of the nation were still recoiling from the trauma of the pandemic, school and business lockdowns, and waves of street violence. His message of social justice seemed right for the moment. Of course, big money into his campaign from his former longtime employer, the Chicago Teachers Union, was a huge help too.
Today, the mayor is still proudly in the vanguard of the progressive movement. His very public opposition to President Donald Trump’s hunt for migrants in Chicago is undoubtedly burnishing his standing among those left of center for being courageous and true to the cause. But their numbers, along with their fervor, is in decline.
In the November election, most of the candidates bankrolled by the CTU for a reconstituted Chicago Board of Education were defeated, and Trump got his biggest share of votes ever in the city. The city is still overwhelmingly Democrat blue, but the electorate is clearly shifting toward the center, or even MAGA in some wards.
Johnson won’t be able to secure reelection in two years solely with the votes of progressives and public sector union members — his base. He’ll also need the votes of a good-sized portion of everyone else. Nearly 9 out of 10 say Chicago needs commonsense policies to get back on track. He could win their support — and a second term — by showing he’s listening to the rest of the city too, and fixing the tough problems that both blocs agree need fixing.
Will Johnson is the Chicago-based CEO of The Harris Poll, one of the world’s leading public opinion research firms.
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