Here are some things that would absolutely, positively improve the team for 2025.
I know, I know. The first thing many of you are going to say when you think of “three offseason moves the Cubs need to make” is “Sign Juan Soto.”
It seems clear that’s not going to happen. So let’s look at some other things the Cubs might do to put them in a position where they would be the team manager Craig Counsell has specifically said he wants:
“We should try to be building 90-win teams here,” Counsell said. “That’s what you have to do; that’s the playoff standard. That’s what you’ve got to get to be safely in the playoffs, safely in the tournament. So from that perspective, we’ve got a ways to go.”
No question, Counsell is correct. And he should know: When Counsell managed the Brewers, from 2016-23, they won 90 or more games three times. Each time they did so, they won the NL Central. When Counsell’s Brewers fell short of 90 wins, they didn’t win the division. And Milwaukee did it again in 2024 under Pat Murphy, when their 93-win team not only won the division, but took it by 10 games.
So what three things could the Cubs do to get them to that 90-win level? They’ve won 83 games each of the past two seasons. There’s a reasonable argument to be made that both of those 83-win teams could have won 90 games, with better performances by certain players, better bullpen work and fewer injuries.
“But okay,” you’re saying, “they didn’t.” Granted and stipulated.
Let’s look at three key things the Cubs could do to get to that 90-win plateau that aren’t named “Juan Soto.”
Sign Roki Sasaki, Corbin Burnes or another top starting pitcher
I’ve written about Sasaki and also about Burnes and either one would be a fantastic addition to the Cubs rotation. This article in The Athletic indicates that the Cubs are not likely to be a serious suitor for Burnes, but given the specific requirements for signing Sasaki (a minor-league deal with the maximum payment being the international bonus pool), the Cubs could and should be players for him.
The Cubs’ top four starters in 2023 were Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Javier Assad. Those four accounted for 110 of the 162 starts made, or 68 percent. The Cubs were an otherworldly 23-6 in games started by Imanaga. They were 40-41 in games started by the other three above, so 63-47 in all from those four, a winning percentage of .572. That’s equivalent to a 93-win season. That means they were 20-32 in games started by all other pitchers. Of that, 11-13 was the record in Kyle Hendricks starts — yep, bet you thought that was worse. And that means that in the other 28 games, started by Jordan Wicks (10), Ben Brown (8), Hayden Wesneski (7), Nate Pearson (1), Luke Little (1) and Caleb Kilian (1), the Cubs were 9-19. (Note that the games started by Pearson and Little were as openers. The Cubs lost the game Pearson started and won the game Little started.)
Now, this probably isn’t too different from many teams when they go past their top five starters. But replacing Hendricks in the rotation with (say) Sasaki or Burnes or another top starter should give the Cubs one of the best rotations in baseball.
They need to make this a top priority.
Sign or trade for some good setup relievers
The Cubs put all their closer eggs in Adbert Alzolay’s basket last year and those all got smashed when Alzolay was injured and out for the season by mid-May. Truth be told, Alzolay was probably injured in late 2023 and it didn’t get any better. They should have had a different plan for 2024.
The big relief signing for 2024 was Hector Neris. Which might have worked out if Neris had played setup man to a healthy Alzolay. Some guys are just not suited to closing, and Neris was one of those guys. Neris had 17 saves, but also five blown saves. All told, the Cubs had 38 saves… and 26 blown saves.
Of those 26 games in which the Cubs had a blown save, they came back to win seven of them. So right there, that’s 90 wins!
Of course, it’s not quite that simple. The Cubs bullpen in 2024 was a revolving door of relievers. Twenty-nine pitchers made at least one relief appearance for the Cubs in 2024 (plus three position players who pitched!) and that’s simply not a good recipe going forward.
The first thing the Cubs should do, in my view, is designate Porter Hodge as closer. He did a good job and had only one blown save after he was given the closer role in mid-August. Hodge has a closer’s repertoire and seems to have the right attitude and mound presence for the job.
Then the Cubs will simply have to go out and find some decent setup men on the free-agent or trade markets. I’ll have some articles on possible targets for this coming up soon. Oddly, Jed Hoyer seemed to do a good job of signing free-agent relievers when the Cubs were doing the “rebuild that wasn’t a rebuild,” guys like David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens, but over the last two years has been less successful doing this. Let’s hope he does better this winter.
Get some better bench players
Mike Tauchman has been the Cubs’ best bench player both of the last two years. His defensive numbers slipped a bit in 2024, but he is still competent at all three defensive positions and is an excellent pinch hitter (.286/.464/.333 in 28 PA in 2024, that OBP is outstanding).
But that’s it. The Cubs struggled with backup catchers in 2024, finally lucking into Christian Bethancourt, who played well (.281/.305/.509, but in only 24 games), and that might have been a fluke, because the reason the Cubs got him in the first place was that the Marlins let him go after he posted a .466 OPS in 38 games there.
The Cubs are after a better catcher to pair with Miguel Amaya and I’m covering that in the free-agent target series.
But the Cubs MUST get better backup infielders than Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni. Neither of them can hit and while they are decent defensively, there have to be better players around. Perhaps one is in the system in Luis Vázquez, who didn’t get much chance to play in 2024, or Ben Cowles, who was obtained from the Yankees in the Mark Leiter Jr. deal.
There have to be guys available by trade, on the waiver wire, or on the upcoming non-tender list who would be better than Madrigal and Mastrobuoni. Patrick Wisdom, too, appears to be past his sell-by date. Jonathon Long showed that he can play third base reasonably well, and hit well in the Arizona Fall League — maybe he’s the successor to Wisdom in that role.
There are other things the Cubs need this winter, but those strike me as three things they could do to push them closer to the 90-win benchmark that Counsell would like to see.
Maybe you have a different idea (who isn’t named “Juan Soto”). Let us know in the comments.