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The Rundown: Cubs Need Middle-of-Order Big Stick, Perhaps Wind Was a Factor After All, Mets Bounce Phils, Dodgers Force Game 5

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“You can shave my head, as clean as my hand. My strength will come as natural as any other man.” – Grateful Dead, Samson & Delilah

The Cubs need a middle-of-the-order power bat for the fourth consecutive season since trading Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Báez. That trio combined for 85 home runs in 2016 without Kyle Schwarber, then the fearsome foursome averaged 111 taters in the three seasons that followed. Those numbers dropped due to the shortened 2020 season and Jed Hoyer disposed of all four in ’21. No Cub has hit at least 30 home runs in a single season since, and Patrick Wisdom, who may not be back next season, is the team’s biggest legitimate power threat.

By most accounts, Hoyer will have to get creative to upgrade his roster this winter. Adding a legit power bat might be a tall task, however. We can start by naming who won’t be coming to Chicago: Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. Soto will reportedly get a contract that exceeds $500 million and 10 years, which is far removed from Hoyer’s comfort zone. Alonso plays first base and DH, positions filled by a combination of Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki. Bellinger may opt out of his contract, but that seems unlikely. As a result, Kevin Alcantára, who has 30-HR potential, is blocked and will probably be traded.

Hoyer could trade Isaac Paredes, but he probably won’t find a power-hitting third baseman to replace him. Nico Hoerner is a trade candidate too, but Chicago won’t find a big basher to replace him either. Matt Shaw has a nice bat, but counting on 20 or more home runs is expecting a bit much. Suzuki and Ian Happ have no-trade clauses, and Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong aren’t going anywhere. Replacing Miguel Amaya will represent a modest upgrade in power at best. As you can see, Hoyer has handcuffed himself.

Chicago could pursue Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander if Bellinger decides to leave. The switch-hitting 29-year-old is a free agent who blasted 44 home runs with 102 RBI this season, and most analysts believe Santander will command a five-year deal worth $100 million or more. His OPS has increased every year since 2022 and his home run totals of the last three seasons — 33, 28, and 41 — show that even if Santander is a good bet to reach at least 30 home runs. His hard-hit rates of 43.3%, 56%, and 42.4% in the last three years are positives, too.

There is a caveat, though. Signing Santander or someone of similar ilk to replace Bellinger further blocks Alcantára and Owen Caissie until Suzuki’s contract expires. Santander also isn’t much of an upgrade over Bellinger if you factor in other components of the incumbent’s repertoire such as defense, baserunning, and clubhouse familiarity. As I said, Hoyer has genuinely left himself few options whether Bellinger stays or leaves. Hoping Suzuki can stay healthy for a full season is likely Chicago’s only chance at having a legitimate power threat in its 2025 lineup.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

The Trop was no match for Milton. Sadly, the stadium was set up to house first responders, rescuers, and linemen. If you read us from Florida, I hope you are safe and dry this morning.


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Ball Four

Check out these percentage changes in home runs from 2023 to 2024 among this year’s best free agent outfielders. Maybe Hoyer was right about the wretched winds of Wrigley Field.

If Scott Boras can sell that to front offices perhaps Bellinger will opt out. But was it the wind? Let’s dig a little deeper.

Santander combines his 22-degree average launch angle with 90th-percentile exit velocities. That’s a recipe for 30+ dingers annually. Profar had an elite 90% zone contact rate and an absurd 70% rate when he chases. That’s a clear indication of increased bat speed. O’Neill combined 70-grade raw power with 89th-percentile bat speed and a 20-degree launch angle. He crushed nearly every pitch he made good contact with. Hernández has more swing-and-miss than you’d like, but like Santander, he’s armed with elite launch angles and exit velocities. Soto is, well, Soto.

What about Bellinger? His exit velocity and launch angle increased this year, while his SLG and OBP dropped significantly. Maybe it was the wind after all.

The Cubs were 24th among 30 MLB clubs in wRC+ (94) while playing at home. They ranked 25th in home runs (78) and 27th in ISO (.142). On the road, however, Chicago played to a wRC+ of 108, tied for fifth-best. The Cubs ranked 12th in homers (92) and 10th in ISO (.159) in games away from Wrigley Field.

Colors That End in “URPLE”

Paraphrase what Boras will say at the GM Meetings about Bellinger and the winds at Wrigley Field this year and if you’re the closest to being accurate I’ll buy you the Obvious Shirt of your choice.

You know, something like “The mightiest oak grows strongest against contrary winds, while the most expensive diamonds are made under intense pressure.”

Just like bumbling blowhards.

Central Intelligence

  • Milwaukee: Broken Bat Brewing Co., which is a few blocks from my home here in Bay View, crafts some delicious brews and stated on X that if its post got 100 likes, they would offer $1.99 pints in honor of Jesse Winker‘s batting average with the Brewers. I’m about to partake in today’s event.
  • St. Louis: Shopping Sonny Gray would signal the intent of the Cardinals’ front office to orchestrate a full-scale rebuild. My friend White Sox Vinny over at Streets & Sanitation in Bridgeport quote-tweeted “Welcome to the party, pal.”
  • Cincinnati: Count the Reds all-in if St. Louis needs a suitor for Gray.
  • Pittsburgh: Since 2011, the Pirates have won as many postseason games as the Steelers, and Pittsburgh fans are pretty unhappy about that.

How About That!

One amazing swing by shortstop Francisco Lindor eliminated the Phillies and propelled the Mets into this year’s NLCS. Lindor turned on a Carlos Estévez fastball, powering it over the right-center-field fence for his second career playoff grand slam and the second slam in Mets postseason history.

José Quintana was the unsung hero of New York’s series win over Philadelphia.

Despite the loss, Bryce Harper feels like the next 10 seasons will be the prime years of his career. I can neither confirm nor deny that Hoyer cringed when he heard that.

The Tigers are one win shy of advancing to the ALCS after beating the Guardians 3-0 yesterday.

The Yankees beat the Royals 3-2 to go up 2-1 in their series. New York can eliminate Kansas City with a win tonight.

The Dodgers avoided elimination with an 8-0 win over the Padres.

The two NL West rivals now head back to Lo Angeles for a winner-take-all contest on Friday evening.

MLB fans have had enough of Bob Costas. It took this long?

Extra Innings

Who won the game and the series?

Mind the Gap

The Bears play the Jaguars in London this Sunday and we learned a couple of things during the team’s introductory press conference.

  1. Team President and CEO Kevin Warren is still focusing his stadium efforts on Chicago’s lakefront.
  2. Rookie phenom Caleb Williams is maturing faster than expected according to GM Ryan Poles and some of the quarterback’s teammates.

They Said It

  • “[Our offense] was really difficult to assess when you think about how Wrigley Field played this year. Last year, Wrigley was the seventh-best offensive park in baseball. This year it was 29th, and after [the last home series] it might be 30th.” – Hoyer
  • “There are really two currencies when you think about a front office. You’ve got financial flexibility, and you’ve got young players. Young players, in today’s game, are certainly the most valuable currency there is. We’re really healthy on both sides. When you look at our books long-term, they’re incredibly clean. We have really good contracts on the books. The players that are on deals played really well. We’ve graduated a lot of guys and we still have (eight) top-100 prospects.” – Hoyer

Thursday Walk-Up Song

Never give up, Florida. We’ve got you, winds and surge be damned. Why she does what she does…your guess is as good as mine.


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The post The Rundown: Cubs Need Middle-of-Order Big Stick, Perhaps Wind Was a Factor After All, Mets Bounce Phils, Dodgers Force Game 5 appeared first on Cubs Insider.