… but yes, there’s a small chance that might actually happen.
The 2025 MLB Draft lottery odds have now been determined for all the teams that didn’t make the postseason.
Darragh McDonald at MLB Trade Rumors laid them all out in this easy-to-read listt:
- Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
- Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
- Angels (63-99): 17.96%
- Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
- Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
- Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
- Reds (77-85): 3.67%
- Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
- Giants (80-82): 1.9%
- White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
- A’s (69-93): Ineligible
- Rays (80-82): 1.5%
- Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%
- Twins (82-80): 1.09%
- Cardinals (83-79): 0.82%
- Cubs (83-79): 0.68%
- Mariners (85-77): 0.54%
- Diamondbacks (89-73): 0.27%
There are a few things to note about that order. The White Sox and A’s are ineligible for the top pick, as shown in the table. The Sox aren’t because they aren’t a revenue-sharing team and had a lottery pick for 2024, so per the latest CBA the highest they can pick is 10th. The A’s are a revenue-sharing team, but they have had a lottery pick the last two years, so they get dropped to 11th.
You’ll also note the Cardinals have slightly higher odds than the Cubs for getting the top pick, despite the fact that the two teams finished with the same record. Ties like that are broken by the teams’ records in the previous season — so the Cardinals’ 91-loss year in 2023 gets them those slightly higher odds.
Now, 0.68 percent are not very good odds to land the top pick. It should be noted, though, that the Guardians got the No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft despite having odds of only 2 percent. Here’s the reason for that:
Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the Nationals would have secured the first overall pick in 2024 but they were ineligible due to having a lottery pick in 2023. The draw was redone, which is when the Guardians got the top pick.
So the Sox and A’s will be part of the draw, but if their ball comes up as No. 1 (or anywhere higher than they are listed above), the draw will be re-done.
The Cubs wound up with the No. 14 overall pick in 2024, just about where their draft odds said they should have landed, and chose Cam Smith from Florida State. That appears to be a very good pick, as Smith hit .313/.396/.609 (36-for-115) and was promoted to Double-A Tennessee after just 12 games each at Low-A Myrtle Beach and High-A South Bend.
The Draft Lottery will be held the first week of December at the MLB Winter Meetings, which this year will be held in Dallas.