Many of these players will probably be non-tendered.
MLB Trade Rumors posted Tuesday their annual estimates for arbitration salaries for next season.
They’ve gotten pretty good at this. Most of their estimates are pretty close to what the players actually sign for, unless said player winds up with a multi-year deal.
Sometime after the World Series, along with Dep’s help, I will post a Cubs payroll estimate for 2025. Until we get certainty about Cody Bellinger’s opt-out decision, we won’t have a good handle on exactly how that payroll will shake out.
In the meantime, here are the 14 Cubs players who are arbitration-eligible for 2025 (in alphabetical order), MLBTR’s estimates, and what I think the team will do with all of them. The number in parentheses is the player’s MLB service time, in years plus days (a MLB year is 187 days, and a year of service time for arb purposes is acquired if a player is on the active roster or injured list for 172 of those 187 days).
A number of these guys will likely be non-tendered so the Cubs can protect some of their prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.
Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2 million
Almonte had shoulder surgery in July and missed the rest of the season, and might not be ready for the start of 2025. If the Cubs want to keep him, they’re likely going to non-tender him and sign him to a two-year deal, with a lower salary for 2025 and perhaps some incentives for games pitched in 2026.
Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3 million
Alzolay had Tommy John surgery in August and thus will probably miss most of the 2025 season. I can see the Cubs signing him to a two-year deal similar to the type of contract I proposed above for Almonte.
Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5 million
Bethancourt posted 0.8 bWAR for the Cubs in just 24 games. That’s really good!
He also posted a .466 OPS in 38 games for the Marlins in 2024, which is why they let him go.
Bethancourt just turned 33 and I cannot see the Cubs keeping him around next year. They’ll likely try to find a less expensive backup catcher.
Colten Brewer (3.063): $800,000
Brewer broke his hand smashing it on the dugout wall after this bad outing against the Angels.
See ya, Colten.
Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900,000
You’re saying, “Who?”
The Cubs claimed Herget on waivers from the Braves Sept. 13 and stashed him on the Triple-A Iowa roster. He didn’t pitch in any games there, nor was he called up the last week of the season.
Nice knowin’ ya, Jimmy.
Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9 million
There’s really no spot for Madrigal on this team anymore. He’ll be non-tendered.
Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3 million
That’s not a large price — if Merryweather is healthy, which is by no means assured. He turns 33 in a couple of weeks and perhaps the Cubs can do better elsewhere.
Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9 million
Well, well, well. Here we come to an interesting decision. Paredes didn’t perform the way Jed Hoyer & Co. had hoped after the trade acquiring him from the Rays. But he is just 25 and had an All-Star season in 2023.
The Cubs will probably retain him for a price close to this estimate. He is under team control through 2027.
Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4 million
Pearson had some really good outings after being acquired from the Blue Jays. This is not expensive for a guy like this at all.
Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4 million
Last year, I suggested the Cubs lock up Steele with a multi-year deal. Yes, he missed some starts with injuries this year but in general, posted pretty much the same year in 2024 that he did in 2023. I’d still like to see the Cubs lock him up long-term. He made $4 million this year.
Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9 million
Tauchman is, as I have previously written, the perfect fourth outfielder. He understands his bench role and is good at it. He can play multiple positions and is a good pinch-hitter.
He is worth keeping around for that price. He made $1.95 million this year.
Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1 million
Thompson had a good K rate (10.7 per nine innings). He had a bad walk rate (5.3 per nine innings). He had some lights-out outings but a couple of really bad ones in May, part of that complete bullpen failure in that month.
He turns 30 in March. Is it worth $1 million to try him again? He’s out of options.
Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4 million
A fungible reliever. I don’t see the point; he’s 30 and his MLB results have been “meh.” If the Cubs really think they can “fix” him, non-tender him and give him a minor-league deal and NRI to Spring Training.
Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3 million
There’s really no spot for Wisdom on this team anymore. He’ll be non-tendered.