Several reports have indicated that the Alex Bregman saga should end this week, just as teams begin showing up for Spring Training. The last update was that the Cubs have offered a four-year contract to the third baseman, with Bruce Levine mentioning the team has no interest in going up to six or seven years.
Back when this all started in November, Bregman was given a $21.05 million qualifying offer by the Houston Astros for a one-year deal. Turning that down was an easy decision given that Bregman was paid $30 million in 2024. However, the qualifying offer means the Astros will receive a second and fifth-round pick, along with $1 million in international free agent money from the team that signs Bregman.
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Following their qualifying offer, the Astros made a six-year offer worth $156 million, which has been available all offseason. Bregman has yet to accept it and reports out of Houston, via Jeremy Booth and Randy Mcllvoy, have indicated that the Astros are now out of the running. That was possibly the only long-term deal available. Other than Dansby Swanson, Jed Hoyer has stayed away from long-term contracts and we have no reason to believe that will change with Bregman.
To sign Bregman, the Cubs will need to offer a multi-year deal with opt-outs. Considering the compensation the Cubs will have to pay due to the qualifying offer attached to Bregman, a one-year deal makes little sense. For this reason, I’m projecting that the Cubs offer will look something like this, with an opt-out after the second and possibly third year.
My proposed Alex Bregman framework:
5 years, $141 million.
$28,200,000 AAVYear 1- $29M
Year 2- $29M
*Player Opt Out*
Year 3- $29M
*Player Opt Out*
Year 4- $28M
Year 5- $26MPartial no-trade clause (6 teams), bonus for awards
— Jacob Zanolla (@jacobzanolla) February 12, 2025
Giving him an AAV of $28.2 million brings the Cubs up to the luxury tax, but gives them the flexibility for in-season moves after Nico Hoerner is likely traded. The two-year guarantee is easily the most important part of this proposed contract for the Cubs, as losing the draft picks (and international money) for one year of Bregman is far too high a price to pay.
In any case, we should be finding out very soon.
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