More on Roki Sasaki Posting Process, Cubs Hire Japanese Firm to Boost Injury Prevention Efforts

The titular topics may not be directly related, but they’re not totally unrelated either. Due to the nature of Roki Sasaki‘s transition to MLB, there are a great number of factors that will all weigh more heavily than money. I’d even go so far as to say every factor will carry a higher priority than money, as the 23-year-old is already choosing to forego a deal that could have at least rivaled the record-setting $325 million contract Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed last offseason.

Because Sasaki is a couple years short of being considered a “professional” international free agent, he’s limited to compensation via teams’ bonus pools. Those range from roughly $5.1-7.6 million based on market size, spending, and qualifying offer penalties. Teams can also trade for up to an additional 60% more of their allotted pool size, so the max bonus Sasaki can earn is around $12.2 million.

The Cubs have a pool of almost $6.3 million, so they could add nearly $4 million more via trades if they’re willing to do so. Of course, that presupposes that Sasaki would need a team to max out its pool — which I find dubious — and that a team would be willing to limit its IFA class to one big player and a bunch of minimum signings. For reference, players signed for bonuses of $10,000 or less do not count toward a team’s total.

Keep in mind that these aren’t literal bank accounts into which money is set aside, they’re just spending guidelines within which teams must operate.

Timing is a factor here as well because Sasaki must be posted by December 15, which happens to be the same day the 2024 international free agent signing period ends. Sasaki will have 45 days to negotiate with any and all MLB clubs, but waiting for the posting deadline means he won’t be able to sign until the next IFA period opens on January 15, 2025. That complicates things in a number of ways, the biggest of which is that teams already have verbal agreements in place with many international amateurs.

It’s possible the team that wins the Sasaki sweepstakes would have to renege on one or more of those handshake deals, though I wonder whether an organization’s pending signings would aid in the recruiting pitch. After all, we’re talking about a player who will be around for at least six years since he has to sign a minor-league deal and can’t negotiate an extension as part of the posting process. And since we’ve already established that money almost certainly isn’t motivating him, getting to the largest possible pool size may not be as important as people are making it out to be.

That may actually lend a little more credence to the widespread belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorites to land Sasaki. If he’s able to get all his paperwork filed prior to the deadline, it’s possible he could sign with LA for whatever they’ve got left and let subsequent endorsement deals make him whole until he can ink an extension. Such a development isn’t inconceivable, though it would raise questions as to whether the Dodgers were circumvention the rules.

Regardless of which class he’s part of and assuming the Dodgers don’t already have a tacit deal in place, there’s been a lot more talk lately about what his preferences may be. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that Sasaki “will likely prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development.”

Jim Allen, former baseball columnist for the Daily Yomiuri, tweeted that “a small-market team with a solid development setup and plan could be the best destination” for Sasaki. The Rays are the first team that jumps to mind there, but the greater point is that this doesn’t appear to be a situation in which the typical big teams have an advantage. Heck, it could be the other way around if Sasaki prefers not to play in the shadows of Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

“We prefer he’s in a smaller media market with a softer landing after the way he’s been tarred and feathered by the Japanese tabloid media for two years,” a source told Allen, adding that Sasaki wants a teamand location that’s in “his own best interest for short term and long term success.”

To that end, consider that Ohtani himself opted for the relative anonymity of the Angels over the Dodgers and other teams when he made a similar move seven years ago. Not quite apples to apples, but I think you get what I’m saying. Beyond just the hype and teammate situation, anyone who’s seen the rash of arm injuries among Dodgers pitchers — including Yamamoto — over the last few years might consider that a red flag for the latter point.

Now we arrive at the second half of the headline, which is that the Cubs have contracted Tokyo-based sports data analytics firm Next Base to bolster their injury-prevention efforts. Next Base will have a presence at Sloan Park during camp to collect data on pitchers’ fingertip motion, ball rotation, energy efficiency, and more. While not an overt appeal to Sasaki, this is most definitely something Jed Hoyer can highlight as part of his overall sales pitch.

Even if the Cubs aren’t successful in their pursuit of the potential ace, injury prevention is baseball’s golden goose and any step toward improving their existing infrastructure will pay dividends. Anyone interested in those efforts on a broad scale should check out ArmCare.com’s Strength in Numbers newsletter. Authored by Ryan Crotin, PhD CSCS RSCC and USA Baseball’s pitching coordinator, it goes deep on topics ranging from proper hydration to the risks and rewards of Olympic lifting for baseball players.

This is where I’ll also throw in another unsolicited plug for the ArmCare.com sensor and app as great tools for any parent or coach who wants to help young athletes throw harder while staying healthier.

We’re in a particularly slow period of the offseason and should be until at least the Winter Meetings, at which point I suspect trade buzz will pick up appreciably. Teams are going to be angling for more pool money and Sasaki will stall the pitching market, particularly for those players attached to a QO, so it might be until mid-January before things really get moving. Juan Soto‘s decision will spur things on the position player side, though, so maybe he signs in December and it’s not completely stagnant in the meantime.

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