There aren’t a lot of expiring contracts that align with performing players
The Cubs were always a long shot to play meaningful baseball down the stretch, but they’ve really failed to seize the sliver of opportunity. It’s been difficult to watch, honestly. The story of the Cubs season in a nutshell: starting pitching that you can rely on, followed by either the offense or bullpen failing to show up. Early in the season the problem seemed to be more the bullpen’s fault, however, recently the offense has almost entirely vanished. Scoring nine runs in six games isn’t exactly a recipe a recipe for winning baseball. All of it has the Cubs on the cusp of selling one more time at the deadline.
This trade deadline poses unique challenges for Jed Hoyer and company, however. It’s not really a full teardown situation and the farm system is much improved, albeit with corner outfielders who are blocked by two stalwarts in the lineup with multiple years left on pretty good deals. Sources have indicated the Cubs will make moves with 2025 and beyond in mind this deadline. But as you’ll see below, so many of the possible tradeable players could also impact the team in 2025 and beyond.
So it’s not really clear who exactly the Cubs should trade, nor is it clear what they could get back for the contracts and players they have. With five days until the trade deadline today I wanted to lay out the conundrum this trade deadline and set of contracts poses for the Cubs front office.
Let’s start with a look at the 40-man roster, current contracts, and years to free agency. This is mostly a product from Baseball Prospectus that they complied at the start of the season. I attempted to update it with tracking roster moves and contract information from Spotrac. There is a non-zero chance I’ve missed a name or two (or five!). I apologize for that in advance but think this is a good place to start:
Some notes on reading this table, players who are pre-arbitration and still have years of control are listed as one-year deals. Players who have had their service time hit one year have a definitive free agent date, while rookies may not. A handful of players have some truly quirky things going on like player options or innings targets where options vest. I could not include all of that in this table and make it legible. I’m happy to answer any questions about methodology, but will just concede upfront that I may have missed a thing or two (or five!).
First things first, the contracts that are most likely to be moved during any trade deadline are players committed for a single season who are over-performing their expectations or are at least close to their contract value. To that end, I’ve highlighted the players who are on single-year expiring contracts. Those players are: Kyle Hendricks, Héctor Neris, Drew Smyly and David Bote. To say these players are having seasons that are unlikely to return much from a free agency standpoint is an understatement. I expect at least Neris and Smyly to be moved, however both have clauses in their contracts that could make that challenging. Neris has an option year that vests with the following terms, according to Spotrac:
60 appearances in 2024 OR 45 games finished in 2024 AND player is not on the IL at the final game AND player does not have a long-term injury at season end
Neris has already appeared in 38 games for those keeping track at home, so any team who wants him to be impactful for their team down the stretch could be locking themselves into his option.
Smyly is less likely to hit his innings bonuses and does not have an option. They are innings based and he’s currently 38⅔ innings pitched, but for consistency’s sake they are below:
Annual Bonuses (Innings Pitched)
(2024 escalated $2M)
$250,000 each for 110, 120
$750,000 each for 130, 140
$1M for 150.
Additionally, let’s just be very clear none of these players is returning all that much on the trade front. Moving them allows prospects who could impact the roster in 2025 or beyond to the active roster. That’s it.
Second, there are a series of contracts with a year or two remaining on their deals. Players like this are occasionally moved at the deadline, especially when they are on team-friendly deals. For example, one of the better prospect hauls in recent memory was the Minnesota Twins dealing José Berríos (who had 15-months left before free agency) to the Toronto Blue Jays for two of their top prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. That is a prospect haul that most baseball types thought was excellent. The Cubs would be lucky to turn any of the players below into a similar return. Twins Daily revisited that trade recently and it’s a really good reminder that prospects are not promises.
With that massive caveat in mind, in looking at the contracts that live in the multiple years and maybe have the correct value tier, you’ll find the following players: Jameson Taillon (2+ years of control remaining), Nico Hoerner (2+ years of control remaining), Julian Merryweather (2+ years of control remaining), Mark Leiter Jr. (2+ years of control remaining).
Two other players who could live in this tier but are distinct: Ian Happ also has 2+ years remaining, however a no-trade clause complicates any deal there. Additionally, Cody Bellinger has player options. However, there are real questions as to whether Bellinger or Happ are performing to the Annual Average Value level of their deals.
And therein lies the rub, The Cubs have some interesting guys they could potentially move. They have some players that teams might even want for multiple years. However if the contract still has too much guaranteed money associated with it, the Cubs front office will need to either 1) pay down the value of the contract to get a better prospect return or 2) accept lesser valued prospects in return for players who are performing relatively well.
There really isn’t an easy match for a one-year deal relievers who are crushing it that can be flipped a la Craig Kimbrel. Trading Nico Hoerner right now might be possible, but does anyone think his peak value is a .257/.335/.351 slashline with 14 steals in 95 games? Truly, only Jameson Taillon, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. have the type of value and years remaining that could warrant a large prospect haul — and they are all also pitchers who absolutely could impact the Cubs positively in 2025 and beyond.
One final note, I’m sure the comments will suggest trading from the slew of players who are pre-arbitration. Honestly, unless the Cubs are interested in parting ways with Michael Busch at peak value rather than see his team-controlled years play out with the Chicago Cubs, any of those deals would be selling pretty low on players too. I’m sure someone is going to suggest flipping Christopher Morel because you are frustrated with him. It would be exceedingly rare for a team to cut bait on a 25-year-old who has 35+ home run potential while he’s struggling. In fact, it’s a really good way to regret a trade in the future.