Darvish Could Aid Cubs’ Recruit of Sasaki, Plus Some Trade Targets for Hoyer to Track

The Cubs could use another assist from Yu Darvish and a couple of helpers from Shōta Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki. Now that Rōki Sasaki is being posted, Tommy Hottovy and Jed Hoyer might want to enlist the services of Darvish once again. The former Cub has a warm relationship with Chicago’s front office and pitching coach and was a willing source of information in conversations with Hottovy when the Cubs stepped up their efforts to sign Imanaga. If only it were that easy.

“He’s a great salesman for our organization,” Hottovy said then. “We have guys coming over that trust what Darvish did. He set the foundation for these guys to come over and transition and prove that you can pitch in this league for a long time and have a lot of success. Let Shōta be Shōta. That’s what he said.”

Imanaga quickly endeared himself to the organization and Cubs fans after signing with Chicago, though he might have landed with the Dodgers or Yankees without his friend and liaison. Darvish earns plenty of respect from almost every Japanese pitcher who has transitioned to the United States. According to Patrick Mooney and Sahdev Sharma of The Athletic, Darvish is considered something of a godfather ($) to the newer generation of Japanese players. He also helped to push Suzuki to the Cubs in 2022.

It says a lot about what the Cubs organization means to Darvish that his opinions are still part of the team’s recruiting process. Perhaps he’ll join Chicago’s front office once he retires. The idea isn’t as far-fetched as it seems, but that doesn’t mean the Padres star is going to push Sasaki to the Cubs. San Diego GM A.J. Preller wasn’t actively pursuing Imanaga or Suzuki, but Sasaki is a top-of-rotation candidate at a heavily discounted price. Darvish also has a great relationship with the cash-strapped Preller, who doesn’t have a lot of options available this winter.

Sasaki will be the most sought-after arm of the winter. The phenom’s underlying data suggests there are plenty of reasons to believe he could be an ace, but there are also some potential areas of concern. The career numbers are eye-popping, however: 2.02 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.0 H/9 over four seasons. He has allowed 16 home runs with a 0.883 WHIP in 414.2 career innings. That’s insane.

Sasaki’s arsenal includes three pitches: A four-seam fastball, a splitter, and a slider. The slider is his third pitch, and scouts grade it as above average, if not plus. He throws it in the 83-85 mph range and misses bats at a 40.7% rate. In ’23, his breaking ball garnered a much higher whiff rate (48.6%) as an upper-80s offering.

His fastball is another matter, though Suzuki did see a velocity drop from 98.8 mph in 2023 to 96.9 this year. It still would have ranked seventh among MLB starters in 2024. His 2023 fastball was just a tick below that of Pirates ace Paul Skenes, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. According to Jake Mintz of CespedesBBQ, the “uniqueness of Sasaki’s fastball is more than just pure heat.” The flame-throwing righty boasts a rare combination of horizontal and vertical movement that compares to Skenes, Hunter Greene, Spencer Arrighetti, and Jeff Hoffman.

Sasaki’s splitter, however, is his best pitch. It’s an elite spin offering that sits 88-90 mph but looks like his heater until it completely falls off the table, producing an ungodly whiff rate (57.1%), similar to Chris Sale before his injuries. That’s better than Mark Leiter Jr. (56.5%) and just behind Fernando Cruz (59.3%). Lance Brozdowski of Marquee Sports presented a fantastic analysis of Sasaki’s splitter and the rest of his arsenal, with the caveat that his future MLB team needs to help the hurler regain his velocity. The Cubs and Hottovy may have an advantage in that respect thanks to their work with Darvish and Imanaga.

If Sasaki were a true free agent, he’d command a 10-year contract in the $275-300 million range. Instead, he’ll be posted sometime after December 15, and whoever signs him will have club control for six years. Because no bidding war exists, the draw of playing for the Dodgers alongside Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be tough to beat.

That said, it’s been reported that Darvish is already mentoring Sasaki, which could give the Padres a leg up. San Diego also boasts Japanese icon and splitter legend Hideo Nomo as part of its front office team. The young star’s priorities reportedly include stability, lifestyle, comfort, and a successful history of player development. The Padres check nearly all of those boxes, but so do the Dodgers.

The Cubs are nicely positioned as well. Suzuki, Imanaga, and Pacific Rim liaison Nao Masamoto would theoretically help to ease Sasaki’s transition to MLB. Masamoto also serves as Suzuki’s translator, and he’s very good friends with Darvish. The Cubs have also contracted Tokyo-based sports data analytics firm Next Base to bolster their injury-prevention efforts. Hottovy has been praised by Darvish and Imanaga. Chicago is culturally diverse, and the Wrigleyville neighborhood is easily the best in baseball. The Cubs fanbase and its attached enthusiasm are unparalleled. The team and the city are therefore an easy sell.

Chicago is not considered among the favorites to land Sasaki, however. Then again, nobody suspected Imanaga would sign with the Cubs last year. I believe were were all focused on Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, at least until Yamamoto signed with Los Angeles. So which team will Sasaki choose? I wouldn’t presume to guess, but the Cubs can’t be counted out.

Ball Four

It’s fun to rib Jed Hoyer for his adherence to intelligent spending, but there is something to be said for finding a diamond in baseball’s equivalent of an East Moline quartz mine. Nothing makes a baseball executive look better than an overperforming pre-arbitration acquisition. He found one in Tyson Miller, and if we’re focusing strictly on value, he may have been better than Imanaga.

The Cubs were dealing with early season injuries and an underperforming bullpen when they sent Jake Slaughter to the Mariners for Miller and cash. Miller was drafted by the Cubs in 2016 and played for five teams before returning in May. The righty made 49 appearances with a 2.15 ERA across 50.1 innings. He had 42 strikeouts against 10 walks while allowing a respectable five home runs. He won’t enter arbitration until 2027 and can’t be a free agent until 2030. Miller earned $740,000 in 2024 and was worth 1.4 wins against replacement. His fastball has good velocity and his elite release extension helps it play up even more. He’s also added a splitter to his pitch mix and pitched in several high-leverage situations.

First baseman Michael Busch, Ben Lively of the Guardians, and Cooper Criswell of the Red Sox were also very good pre-arb acquisitions. Hoyer is always on the lookout for those types of players, and there are a few worth monitoring this winter.

• Mason Miller – The fireballing righty racked up 28 saves for the A’s last year. He’ll enter arbitration in 2026 and can enter free agency in 2030. He’ll cost the Cubs at least two prospects.
• Logan O’Hoppe – The Angels just signed Travis d’Arnaud and need a middle infielder. The Cubs are reportedly dangling Nico Hoerner and could move the second baseman if they are confident Matt Shaw is ready. Hoyer would want pitching in addition to O’Hoppe, and Anaheim doesn’t;t have much to offer.
• Triston Casas/Connor Wong/Kyle Teel – The Red Sox have too many lefties in their lineup and could move Casas, who is one season away from arbitration. Wong and Teel are catchers, with Teel the most likely to be traded because he’s lefty. Hoyer could be interested in Teel if he can’t trade for O’Hoppe.
• Brady House – The Washington third baseman and No. 3 prospect is ready for the bigs, but the Nationals are rumored to be pursuing Alex Bregman, who would block House. The Cubs are high on Cam Smith, but House is worth watching.

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