Cubs Should Try to Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong Early

Among several standout performers in spring training, Pete Crow-Armstrong stood out. The center fielder caught glowing reviews as though they were line drives, including high praise from new Cubs first base coach Quintin Berry, who joked that Crow-Armstrong is the best player he’s ever seen. While it may be hyperbole, people are noticing his incredible talent.

Crow-Armstrong has always been known for his elite defense and electric speed, traits that give him a nice floor of around 3 fWAR. He nearly reached that level last season despite getting only 410 plate appearances and dealing with a slow start that ended with him at an 87 wRC+ after a strong second half. He’ll be a very good player even if the bat is below average, but he’s showing the potential to be something very special.

This spring, PCA has a .519 average with three home runs — two of which came against AL Cy Young contenders — and 11 RBI in 28 PAs. The first of his two blasts against the Mariners came off Logan Gilbert, which is possibly more impressive than the grand slam he hit later in the game. While a 1.500 OPS isn’t sustainable throughout a season, simply managing half that lofty mark would put him 80 points higher than last season.

Good offense is hard to come by, especially when paired with defense and speed. PCA has regularly caused havoc on the basepaths in the Cactus League, giving us a glimpse of what he can do once the regular season begins. If he can produce at or above a 100 wRC+ with double-digit homers, he’s going to be a problem for opponents.

Hypothetically, PCA posting a 120 wRC+ would make him a 5-6 WAR player. The Cubs have only gotten that kind of production from one player in the last 10 seasons, and it was Kris Bryant in each of his first three seasons (6.1 in 2015, 7.5 in 2016, and 7.0 in 2017). The Cubs were not able to secure Bryant’s services beyond the duration of his rookie deal, a topic that is still a sore spot for many fans. With the price of free agents soaring and ownership making it clear that spending at the top of the market isn’t in the cards, finding a way to extend PCA soon might be the only way to keep him in Chicago long-term.

That’s even more imperative in the increasingly likely event that Kyle Tucker will find a new home in the offseason. Part of the appeal of trading for Tucker in spite of his lone year of control is that he’s a superstar, albeit a very underrated one. Crow-Armstrong could be nearly as valuable on the field, but with the kind of mass appeal as an entertainer that makes him well worth the investment.

Jackson Chourio agreed to an extension with the Brewers last winter, signing an eight-year deal worth $82 million. The contract also included two club options at $25 million apiece, putting it at a max of $132 million over 10 years. The motive for this kind of structure is simple: It gives the player financial stability even if he doesn’t become a star, while also giving his team an incredible bargain if that stardom is reached. Think about the value of having a perennial All-Star for just $13 million a year over the next decade.

Small-market teams are more inclined to consider these types of deals given they aren’t going to spend that type of money to re-sign players in free agency. Large market teams do look into these contracts occasionally, with the Braves standing out as a prime example, but they aren’t as reliant on such a strategy.

The problem with this situation is that the Cubs tend to act like a small-market team, at least in terms of their willingness to offer huge contracts. Carrying a payroll of over $200 million might seem like a big deal compared to their NL Central opponents, but it’s laughable when viewing it relative to the teams against whom the Cubs should be competing.

Signing PCA to a long-term extension guarantees the Cubs a Gold Glove defender for the next seven to eight years or even more. If he blossoms into the offensive player scouts think he can be, the front office will look like geniuses having locked up a face of the franchise. Even if his bat falls off a cliff, his other tools will make him a productive player. An extension along the lines of the one Chourio inked would not be cost-prohibitive, allowing the Cubs more freedom to address other needs even if ownership remains frugal.

They should go ahead and extend Matt Shaw while they’re at it. That’s a riskier move because Shaw’s floor is lower, but the possibility of having a dynamic young duo at Wrigley Field for the next decade could be more than worth it.

The post Cubs Should Try to Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong Early appeared first on .