Cubs Should Be at Least $70M Under CBT Penalty Level Heading into Offseason

The Cubs are still projected to be over the competitive balance tax threshold for 2024, though the final numbers won’t be known for a little while yet. You’d have a hard time convincing me it was anything other than a failure by the front office to be over by so little and still wind up falling short of the postseason with such an obviously flawed roster. Either spend more to buy some wins or avoid potentially handcuffing yourselves moving forward. The Cubs managed to do neither.

Not that it’ll matter if they can make the right moves this offseason to put them in a position to win 90 games and secure a playoff spot. They’ll have enough money to make meaningful upgrades, but the real question is whether Jed Hoyer will pay a premium for difference makers or opt for discount versions with lower ceilings as he has in the past.

According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, the Cubs’ CBT payroll currently sits a little over $169 million. That’s more than $70 million — or Juan Soto plus $20 million — below the $241 million penalty threshold, and they could have even more space depending on what Cody Bellinger decides to do. Opting out of his contract would add $27.5 million to the pool, putting the Cubs nearly $100 million below the penalty threshold.

While I don’t believe Soto is really in the crosshairs, it would be unconscionable for the Cubs to sit back and watch him sign elsewhere without a fight if they’ve got the ability to match other offers. And if the latest rumors are true, his AAV won’t be as high as I estimated above. Of course, having a buffer between current payroll and the CBT penalty isn’t the same as having money in the budget for big-ticket pursuits. That’s not a Hoyer issue, it’s an ownership issue.

The Cubs will definitely add pieces, that much is guaranteed, and I’d wager their biggest splashes will come in the form of trades. With so many prospects getting ready for the next level and not enough room for them in Chicago, it only makes sense to find partners who can help Hoyer address more immediate needs. Whatever path they end up taking, I’ll repeat yet again that there is absolutely zero excuse for a team with the Cubs’ wherewithal to be sitting out the market for stars.

Season ticket sales continue to falter, their homegrown broadcast network needs a reason for fans to pay $20/month, and Hoyer has to foster a rising tide for offensive production. Luck plays a role in any measure of success, but there are ways to develop good fortune rather than simply hoping for it. A superstar or two could make all the difference for the team’s record and could very well generate more revenue than they cost in payroll.

Seems pretty simple to me, though I’m not sure the Cubs are big fans of Occam’s razor.

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