The Cubs are among the teams that have discussed right-hander Dylan Cease with the Padres, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication that the two sides are close to any sort of deal or that discussions were anything more than exploratory.
Cease, 29, has been bandied about the rumor mill for much of the winter as a payroll-crunched Padres club struggles to find ways to address myriad roster holes. A free agent following the 2025 season, Cease is slated to earn $13.75MM this year. Trading him for a controllable, lower-cost outfielder could affordably plug one lineup hole while also freeing up more than $13MM to backfill the rotation. Alternatively, the Friars could build a Cease deal around controllable, low-cost (and also less-proven) rotation pieces and look to reallocate Cease’s salary to a bat that’s yet to find a home in free agency or a trade target in the outfield. The Padres have at least gauged interest in impending free agents like Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (signed through 2027 but with an opt-out next offseason) under similar rationale.
The Cubs already have a deep rotation featuring Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. Free agent signee Colin Rea gives them a veteran sixth option, and Chicago has younger names like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian on the 40-man roster, with prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell climbing the minor league ladder.
Given that stock of arms, the Cubs don’t necessarily need another starting pitcher, but there’s an argument that some of that depth and their impressive stock of high-end position prospects could be condensed into a front-of-the-rotation arm like Cease. Morosi highlighted top outfield prospect Owen Caissie as a potential piece of a Cease trade in an on-air segment this morning, albeit in fairly speculative fashion.
Coupling Caissie or another touted outfielder like Kevin Alcantara with a controllable arm that lacks Cease’s ceiling but could be a third or fourth starter (e.g. Wicks, Assad) could hold some appeal to a Padres club that lacks rotation depth, a clear left fielder or designated hitter, and has a shaky-at-best collection of options to fill out manager Mike Shildt’s bench. Anecdotally, a trade involving Cease and Caissie would send each player back to their original organization; Cease was a sixth-round pick of the Cubs who was traded to the White Sox in exchange for Jose Quintana, while Caissie was a Padres second-rounder who went to the Cubs as part of the Yu Darvish trade.
Outfield is an area of depth for the Cubs, who have Ian Happ in left field, young Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and trade acquisition Kyle Tucker in right field. The acquisition of Tucker has pushed slugger Seiya Suzuki into a primary DH role, though he’ll surely still see some corner time depending on injuries or off-days for other members of the outfield. Tucker is a free agent at season’s end, but Happ and Suzuki are both signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong can be controlled all the way through 2030. Both Caissie and Alcantara are generally viewed as MLB-ready pieces who could step into the majors as soon as this season after posting big seasons in the upper minors in 2024. (Alcantara made a brief MLB debut late in ’24 already.) Infielder and fellow top prospect James Triantos also got a bit of work in the outfield in 2024. He’s on the cusp of his MLB debut as well.
The circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Cease are fairly similar to those of Corbin Burnes one year ago. While Cease has had a bit more volatility in terms of year-over-year results and doesn’t have a Cy Young Award to his credit, he’s a top-end starter with a relatively reasonable salary and one season of club control remaining. He’s unlikely to sign an extension, as was the case with Burnes, but could net a new team a draft pick if and when he rejects a qualifying offer next winter. That holds some inherent value and helps to offset the prospect loss required to pry Cease loose in a trade. The Orioles sent two MLB-ready players who’d garnered top-100 fanfare — infielder Joey Ortiz and lefty DL Hall — to the Brewers along with a 2024 competitive balance draft pick (No. 34 overall).
That was a steep price to pay, and perhaps Cease’s value isn’t quite to that same level, but it shouldn’t be far off. At the very least, it provides a rough blueprint for what San Diego could reasonably seek in exchange for a power-armed 29-year-old who landed second in 2022 American League Cy Young voting.
Payroll-wise, the Cubs have more than enough space to add Cease’s salary while still remaining comfortably south of the $241MM luxury threshold and leaving space for in-season acquisitions. RosterResource projects Chicago at a bit more than $207MM in luxury obligations after their recent acquisition of Ryan Pressly, giving them about $34MM of cushion between their current standing and that tax barrier.