Here’s someone who could help the Cubs rotation.
Walker Buehler was once one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
He was the Dodgers’ No. 1 pick in 2015 out of Vanderbilt — the same year his Vandy teammate Dansby Swanson was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
It only took a couple of years to make him a Top 100 prospect, and by 2018 he was already one of the best pitchers in the league, a 3.7 bWAR season and third in Rookie of the Year voting.
From 2018-21, Buehler posted a 2.82 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 95 appearances (94 starts), compiling 13.3 bWAR. He had two Top 10 Cy Young finishes in that span.
Then came injury, and Tommy John surgery that was followed by a hip injury. That cost him half the 2022 season, all of 2023 and much of 2024. His return in 2024 did not produce good numbers: 5.38 ERA, 1.558 WHIP, 16 home runs allowed in just 75⅓ innings.
I’m sure you remember this game, Sept. 9 at Dodger Stadium, when the Cubs pounded Buehler for nine hits and five runs in five innings. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch homered off Buehler. Bellinger’s homer, in particular, went a long way [VIDEO].
When a pitcher is injured like that, it can take a while to get back to what he was before. After his first postseason start didn’t go well against the Padres (six runs in five innings), Buehler didn’t give up a run the rest of the postseason and was on the mound when the Dodgers won the World Series, posting a save, the first of his career.
Signing Buehler would come with some risk. He’s 30 and might never return to being the pitcher he once was. But there are plenty of pitchers who come back from TJS and are just fine.
MLB Trade Rumors says this about Buehler:
Buehler is perhaps the top reclamation project in this year’s rotation class. It’s a stretch to expect the ace form he showed back in 2021, when he rode a 2.47 ERA to a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Buehler still has arm talent, though, and this was the first time he’s allowed more than 4.02 earned runs per nine (excluding a 9 1/3 inning debut season). It’s not out of the question that’ll lead to enough interest to get a two-year deal with an opt-out. One year feels likelier given the regular season numbers. Buehler will try to follow in the path taken by Severino and Flaherty last winter. If he figures things out, four years could be viable next offseason.
I would concur with that. MLBTR says one year, $15 million for Buehler. That seems reasonable, although perhaps a second year mutual option with a buyout might be worth doing.
What say you?