Cody Bellinger’s Future Leads 4 Bold-ish Predictions for Cubs Offseason

The World Series is still a day away and there hasn’t been much news about Craig Counsell‘s coaching staff, so I’m forced to choose between writing nothing and manufacturing a column. As you have probably already gathered, and as at least one person will lament in our Facebook comments, I’ve chosen the latter route. Now watch something come out minutes after I publish this that Counsell has named new base coaches or something.

Huge news, right? There has actually been a little momentum on the coaching front, with Patrick Mooney reporting on changes to the strength and conditioning staff and the emergence of a candidate for bullpen coach. I’ll avoid sharing specifics for now out of respect for The Athletic’s paywall and because, no disrespect to the coaches in question, maybe only one or two readers would recognize any of the names.

So without further ado, let’s get to the predictions

Cody Bellinger opts out

I’ve been saying the whole time that the odds are good for Bellinger to test the waters and I still believe that’s the case despite his uninspiring season. Sources told Jacob Zanolla at Ivy League Cubs as much, for what it’s worth. This is the versatile outfielder’s last shot at a long-term deal prior to turning 30 and I believe he’ll be able to do significantly better than the two years and $52.5 million he’s got on the table with the Cubs. As noted in a previous piece on this same topic, we must contextualize this in terms of total time and value.

It’s not a matter of increasing his average annual value, a prospect that is nigh impossible at this point, it’s about securing his future beyond 2026. Another very important wrinkle here is that Bellinger may also want to have greater control over where he plays, and I don’t mean positionally. Opting back in leaves him at risk of being traded, so choosing free agency at least gives him control over where he goes.

The Cubs were so confident in Bellinger’s ability to replicate his 2023 campaign, or at least come close to it, that they were willing to push into CBT penalty range to sign him. My sense has been that the front office thought he’d do well enough to make the opt-out almost guaranteed, thus clearing room and money for the 2025 push. Though Bellinger’s decision is still seemingly nebulous, my belief is that the front office prefers the flexibility granted by his departure and will try to shop him if he returns.

It wouldn’t shock me in the least to hear they’ve shared as much with Scott Boras, who will need to make a decision within five days of the World Series ending. Though Boras can’t officially engage with other teams given Bellinger’s contractual status, a little back-channel scuttlebutt is surely taking place. And hey, the Cubs may have implicitly granted permission for such tacit negotiations if their preference indeed lines up with what I’m thinking.

When you put it all together, the desire to secure his future in terms of time, money, and location will lead Bellinger to test free agency.

Cubs sign Shane Bieber

This was covered a bit in a recent piece, so I’ll just direct you there for more details on the former Cy Young winner’s potential timeline and outlook. I think the Cubs will also kick the tires on Max Fried and Walker Buehler, with the former probably falling much more in line with their value model, so I probably should have made that my prediction.

At least two of Kevin Alcántara, James Triantos, and Alexander Canario will be traded

The Cubs can’t keep all of their top prospects and they know they need to make some targeted additions to the roster, so trades are going to happen. Alcántara and Triantos are sort of like tails to the heads of Owen Caissie and Matt Shaw, then you’ve got Canario buried behind a bunch of other outfielders. I’ll be shocked if Hoyer doesn’t swing a deal or two to flip minor leaguers on the cusp of the bigs for an established impact player.

Hoyer will make big bullpen addition with either Carlos Estévez or Clay Holmes

This one is more of a blind toss at the dartboard given the number of available options, but I think the Cubs are finally going to splurge on the bullpen this winter one way or the other. And though Porter Hodge acquitted himself quite well down the stretch, it would be foolish to not pay for a more high-leverage arms heading into a season in which they absolutely must compete. Hoyer admitted his failure on that front during his end-of-season presser, which is funny because he said heading into the season that the Cubs needed to upgrade the bullpen.

Given the near certainty that they’re actually open to multiyear reliever deals, it makes sense to target some guys with closing experience. Estévez is heading into his age-32 season and saved 26 games for the Angels and Phillies last year. Holmes will turn 32 just before the start of next season and picked up 30 saves for the Yankees while being deployed situationally rather than as a strict closer. The big question here is whether either would take a deal without being guaranteed the 9th inning.

Of course, the Cubs don’t have to use Hodge as the closer. Between him and Julian Merryweather, they would have a formidable back end with multiple players who could shut games down. Assuming they’ll get closer to that 90-win mark, they won’t be able to use the same pitcher for every save opportunity anyway.

I had originally intended to make five predictions, but just getting to four felt like forcing it. This World Series really needs to get done quickly because I’m jonesing for something to write about that isn’t purely speculation.

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