I was wrong on this one, as ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports that Cody Bellinger has picked up his $27.5 million player option to remain with the Cubs for the 2025 season. Rather than simplifying things for Jed Hoyer, this decision could make the offseason puzzle harder to put together. The Cubs still need to add power and dynamism to the offense, but now they have that much less flexibility to add.
BREAKING: Chicago Cubs CF/1B Cody Bellinger picked up his $27.5 million player option for the 2025 season and will not be a free agent, sources tell me and @JeffPassan.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) November 2, 2024
Unless, of course, this just means the front office will have to be more active in the trade market than free agency. Bellinger himself could be one of the chips they use, particularly with the outfield already full and several top prospects pretty much ready to come up. That’s one of the biggest reasons I figured Bellinger would try his hand at free agency and the ability to choose his destination.
The deadline for option decisions is Monday at 4pm CT, which is also when 60-day IL designations expire and free agents can openly negotiate with all teams. While I don’t expect the market to pick up immediately, especially with Juan Soto anticipated to draw his courtship out until at least late December, Hoyer may need to be more aggressive than usual in his pursuit of a 90-win ballclub. That could mean overpaying a bit for those upper-middle-class players the Cubs are believed to be prioritizing, specifically when it comes to pitching.
They got a little more flexibility on that front Saturday when they made the obvious decision to decline Drew Smyly‘s $10 million option for next season. Kyle Hendricks and Jorge López both elected free agency on Friday and the club outrighted depth catcher Caleb Knight, though several more spots will need to be freed up to accommodate some of those players currently on the IL.
In other option news, the Yankees have declined their $17 million option on Anthony Rizzo, who will receive a $6 million buyout. A lot of Cubs fans want to see a reunion for the sake of nostalgia that runs a little stronger this weekend on the anniversary of the championship, but Rizzo would only exacerbate the team’s lack of power and flexibility.
Eloy Jiménez is a free agent as well after the Orioles chose a $3 million buyout instead of his $16.5 million salary, though he’s likewise a poor fit for a reunion. Same goes for Joc Pederson, who declined his end of a mutual option with the Diamondbacks.
One of the more interesting moves came when Gerrit Cole opted out of his deal with the Yankees that still had four years and $144 million remaining. Even with the money we’ve seen handed out to aging pitchers over the last few years, it’s hard to see the 34-year-old getting more than that. He could if the Yankees choose to void his opt-out by adding another year at $36 million to the end of the deal, turning the original guarantee of $324 million over nine years to $360 million over 10.
Cole is hardly a Cubs target if he does indeed hit free agency, but Blake Snell could be. The lefty settled for just a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants following his Cy Young campaign with the Padres and now he’ll look for the payday he missed out on last winter. Even though I think he’ll be seeking more than what the Cubs will be looking to spend, he’ll probably be a lot cheaper than Corbin Burnes.
Speaking of which, I continue to be very skeptical of his ability to pitch like an ace into the future. The X thread embedded below lays out my concerns in a more intelligent manner than I was able to.
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Corbin Burnes is Not an Ace Anymore ?
An Analytical Deep Dive into His Regression and What It Means for His Free Agency (a thread) pic.twitter.com/8D78QO6Fg6
— Isaac (@isaacgroffman) October 31, 2024
Anyway, that should just about do it for news prior to Monday afternoon. Unless the Cubs make some decisions about a few of those 60-day guys this weekend, none of which should be really consequential. Final thoughts on the Bellinger decision is that the Cubs have a very solid player back at a price that, while steep, isn’t prohibitive. He gives them depth at first base and better defense in right field than Seiya Suzuki can provide, thus allowing Suzuki to thrive as the DH.
As for how that impacts Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and many others, well, that’s what we’re going to find out over the next few months.
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