Chicago Cubs Lineup (3/1/25; SS, Game 1) – Happ Leads Off, Tucker in RF, Rea Starting

The Cubs are splitting their squad today, with an afternoon game in Mesa against the Guardians and a rare evening affair with the Royals out in Surprise. The latter contest is far more interesting to me because Ben Brown is making the start, but the only coverage will be Royals radio. Awesome. Back at Sloan, it’ll be Colin Rea and presumably a stronger group of everyday players.

Ian Happ leads off in left, Kyle Tucker is in right, and Seiya Suzuki is in…center? Dansby Swanson is at short, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Vidal Bruján is at second, and Jon Berti is at third. Johnathon Long is at first and Carlos Peréz is the DH.

Rea didn’t look great his first time out, notching three punchies to go with two walks and just as many hits while recording just five outs. Results aside, those are the kind of outings I’d like to see him getting during the season. A team looking to win at least 90 games and compete in the postseason needs to have way more upside in the rotation, but deploying Rea as a long reliever could work.

On the bump for Cleveland is 25-year-old lefty Joey Cantillo, just the latest in what seems like a parade of southpaws who’ve faced the Cubs this spring. Drafted by the Padres out of Kailus HS in Hawaii as a 17-year-old back in 2017, Cantillo grinded out nearly eight years in the minors before finally breaking through last season. He made eight starts out of nine total MLB appearances and put up big strikeout numbers despite very pedestrian velocity.

One key to his success is elite-level extension that sees him release the ball 7.5 feet from the rubber, more than any pitcher other than Alexis Diaz (7.7) and Logan Gilbert (7.6) last season. That might not seem like a big deal, but the average MLB pitcher has roughly 6.25 feet of extension and every additional foot adds 1.7 mph of “effective” or “perceived” velocity. This phenomenon can be observed at all levels of the game, even among youth pitchers.

At the risk of sharing personal anecdotes that aren’t of much interest beyond the person typing right now, I’ve seen this with my son. Multiple people have been surprised when told his velocity, believing it’s much higher than what the radar shows. That includes his pitching coach, a former professional pitcher. That’s because the kid’s extension is well over 7 feet, similar to Cantillo. In the end, this is just a way to quantify what was previously thought of as the ball jumping on a batter or something like that.

Anyway, Cantillo’s cut-ride fastball is complemented by a changeup that likewise gets a ton of ride. We’re talking about a pitch that falls completely outside the movement profile of his peers, which could be part of the problem. His offspeed pitch comes in at only 78 mph, over six ticks below the average, which could make it far too easy for hitters to pick up. And since it lacks any depth whatsoever, Cantillo ends up with more hangers than Lester “Worm” Murphy from Rounders.

Those who’ve been around these parts for a while know I’ve become a big advocate for the kick change and I think that could be something Cantillo would benefit from incorporating. He’s an over-the-top throwing who appears to be a supinator based on his loopy curve and cutting action on the change and four-seam, so the kick would fit because he doesn’t have to turn the changeup over. It would also create more depth while keeping it more to the arm-side.

Assuming he’d continue to throw it with the same velocity, keeping it right in line with his curve, he might be more deceptive. I’m guessing it would get more swings and misses too, though I’m just scouting stats and might be way off. Maybe we’ll get to see for ourselves at 2:05pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

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