Cherry-Picking Production to Find Cubs 8 More Wins Via Internal Improvement Alone

Jed Hoyer’s end-of-season press conference was yet another nothing-burger, which is exactly what everyone should have expected from a man who routinely gives away little when it comes to the front office’s machinations. He did hint at spending more money on the bullpen and pitching staff in general, but the big takeaway for most was that the Cubs are going to put together a very similar roster and just hope a few players outperform their projections.

Hoyer was taken to task for such a strategy by those who believed he was laying a foundation for success based on hopes and dreams. The truth of the matter is that any team that pushes well into the postseason has to rely on some measure of good fortune, so Hoyer was simply pointing out a very difficult reality of baseball. It’s not that the Cubs are simply hoping they get a couple-three players to bust out, it’s that they — and most other teams — will need that in order to win in a big way.

It’s the part about other teams that I feel went overlooked when trying to parse the POBO’s words. You can assemble a roster that stacks up well on paper, but that goes away quickly when comparable teams get a Bobby Witt Jr. MVP-caliber performance or even a Matt Chapman rebound. Yes, I know the Giants didn’t even finish with a .500 record, it’s more about Chapman putting more wins above replacement (5.5) than he had since 2019.

The pursuit of Juan Soto or another superstar-level addition seems unlikely at best, hence Hoyer’s oft-repeated mantra about improvement coming from within. He talked about fostering an environment in which players are put in a position to perform at their best on a more consistent basis, which got me thinking about cherry-picking production to squeeze out better overall results.

With that in mind, let’s see how many more wins the Cubs could find by projecting out hypothetical stats based on either first- or second-half numbers. This isn’t realistic, of course, but it’s possible in theory. For the sake of ease, the projections here will assume 600 plate appearances for regular position players and 400 for catcher. Is this all very foolish and incredibly rudimentary? Hell yes. It’s also just for fun, so let’s not go getting our panties in a twist.

You’ll notice that I didn’t adjust the slash lines or wRC+ marks here since the extrapolations assume each player maintains that performance for a full season.

Dansby Swanson
Season: .242/.312/.390, 16 HR, 82 R, 66 RBI, 99 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR
2nd half: .281/.352/.443, 7 HR, 45 R, 35 RBI, 124 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
Projected: .281/.352/.443, 16 HR, 105 R, 82 RBI, 124 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR

Interestingly enough, this is the same exact WAR mark Swanson had in his final season with the Braves. Repeating that in his age-31 season isn’t probable, though he showed down the stretch that he can still hit pretty well while playing Gold Glove defense at short. Even if a jump to his career-best results isn’t in the cards, he should stay close to the 5-WAR range.

Nico Hoerner
Season: .273/.335/.373, 7 HR, 86 R, 48 RBI, 103 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR
2nd half: .297/.335/.407, 3 HR, 38 R, 19 RBI, 110 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Projected: .297/.335/.407, 7 HR, 88 R, 44 RBI, 110 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR

Hoerner had a bit of a down season following fWAR tallies of 4.3 and 4.6 in the two previous campaigns, so that 4.4 number makes perfect sense. The issue here, if it’s even fair to label it as such, is that his lack of power will keep him in that mid-4 range in perpetuity. Hoerner’s got one of the smallest deltas between floor and ceiling, meaning you can pretty much pencil in his production and then look for improvement elsewhere. More on that at the end.

Ian Happ
Season: .243/.341/.441, 25 HR, 89 R, 86 RBI, 122 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR
1st half: .243/.352/.458, 15 HR, 53 R, 57 RBI, 129 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
Projected: .243/.352/.458, 24 HR, 83 R, 89 RBI, 129 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR

Happ is another one who you can just plug and play, to the extent that I almost removed him because his production is so consistent despite some cold stretches. He’s almost certainly not breaking out at age 30 and beyond, but, like Hoerner, this kind of certainty is very valuable.

Seiya Suzuki
Season: .283/.366/.482, 21 HR, 74 R, 73 RBI, 138 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR
2nd half: .300/.402/.487, 8 HR, 34 R, 28 RBI, 150 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR
Projected: .300/.402/.487, 18 HR, 89 R, 76 RBI, 150 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR

One of the bigger wild cards in the group, Suzuki has shown flashes of being one of the best hitters in the game. His glove dictated a move to DH, at which point his bat excelled further. It’s as though his fielding had gotten in his head and removing that anxiety allowed him to relax and focus on what helped the team. He could remain in a primary DH role regardless of Cody Bellinger‘s decision.

Pete Crow-Armstrong
Season: .237/.286/.384, 10 HR, 46 R, 47 RBI, 87 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
2nd half: .262/.310/.425, 7 HR, 35 R, 30 RBI, 104 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Projected: .262/.310/.425, 18 HR, 89 R, 76 RBI, 104 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

I actually think this projection is underselling PCA’s potential, though he doesn’t need to hit that well to have an impact. He’ll win the Gold Glove in center for the next decade and will keep defenses on their toes when he’s on the bases. The power will improve as well.

Michael Busch
Season: .248/.335/.440, 21 HR, 73 R, 65 RBI, 119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR
1st half: .271/.357/.466, 12 HR, 46 R, 36 RBI, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Projected: .271/.357/.466, 21 HR, 81 R, 63 RBI, 131 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR

Busch is another one of those guys who I think will continue to be a perfectly cromulent performer for a long time to come. His defense improved a great deal at first base and his power is enough to keep him as a regular, but the Cubs should absolutely take the opportunity to improve at the corners if they have a chance to do so.

Miguel Amaya
Season: .232/.288/.357, 8 HR, 32 R, 47 RBI, 83 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR
2nd half: .271/.316/.444, 5 HR, 19 R, 29 RBI, 113 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Projected: .271/.316/.444, 13 HR, 48 R, 73 RBI, 113 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR

Amaya was brutal in the first half, which is why the Cubs were aggressively pursuing another long-term option behind the plate leading up to the trade deadline. Though that obviously didn’t materialize, I fully expect them to look at other upgrades this winter. Whether that’s a primary catcher, timeshare with Amaya, or backup I don’t have a good sense of at this point. Whatever happens, Amaya’s potential to make a big impact may be limited.

So there you have it. Hoyer can avoid the free-agent market entirely and pick up roughly 8.4 additional wins to get to that 90-win mark he and Craig Counsell have talked about. Easy-peasy. Except for the idea that it would take nearly every regular making substantial improvements over their 2024 production while no one else drops off.

Like, say, Bellinger, who is notably absent from this list. That isn’t a matter of me trying to manifest his opting out, it’s just that his splits were such that projected improvement was negligible. Isaac Paredes was likewise omitted due to the issues with trying to compare his production with a different team to what the Cubs got from their rotating cast of third basemen.

As I’ve noted once or twice in the past, I’d be looking to deal Paredes to make room for Matt Shaw or an outside addition. Most people seem to be saying something similar about Hoerner, but I see both Hoerner’s ceiling and floor as higher than Paredes’ while also presenting less volatility. That’s something the front office needs to balance when putting together a roster with fewer holes than what we’ve seen these last two seasons.

The biggest issue with that in Hoyer’s tenure is the lack of serious upside. As we see above, winning 90 games would require most players performing to at least the 90th percentile of their capacity. With the exception of PCA, I don’t think even the most optimistic fans would bet on any current Cubs to exceed 6.0 fWAR next season. Even one run less than that would be a big stretch for most.

And if we’re being really honest, I don’t think such a player exists in the system at his point. As high as I am on Shaw and some of his prospect brethren, this isn’t the same as when Kris Bryant and Javy Báez were coming up. So unless I’m proven wrong, and Lord knows that’s been the case plenty of times in the past, the Cubs need to bring in a star from outside the organization to help push them back into relevance.

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