CHICAGO — If the 2024 Cubs are to make one final postseason push over the season’s last two months, their recently-concluded homestand was a good start.
Chicago began August with seven games at Wrigley Field against the Cardinals and Twins, both teams over .500. The Cubs went 5-2, taking three of four from St. Louis over the weekend and winning Wednesday afternoon’s rubber match against Minnesota, 8-2, to also take that series.
It’s also the way the Cubs — who’ve won six of their last eight and have pushed their season run differential to plus-7 — played during the homestand that lends some hope for a playoff push.
They opened the homestand by scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth last week Thursday to walk-off the Cardinals, 5-4, and outscored them 12-5 in their other two wins in the series. The Cubs probably feel like they should’ve gotten a four-game sweep, but they let Saturday’s game get away late after leading 4-0 early and wound up losing, 5-4.
Then, after being blanked, 3-0, in Monday’s opener against the Twins, the Cubs responded with wins of 7-2 and 8-3 to take the series.
Chicago’s offense, maligned all season, averaged 5.1 runs per game during the homestand and will have an off-day Thursday to feel good about it.
“When you find momentum like this, you want to take advantage,” catcher Christian Bethancourt said after the Cubs completed the 5-2 homestand.
In Wednesday’s win, Ian Happ and Michael Busch homered and five Chicago pitchers combined for a six-hitter. Javier Assad worked the first four innings and Jorge López (2-2) worked two innings to earn the victory.
Standings not in Cubs’ favor
The Cubs go into Thursday’s off-day still three games under .500 at 57-60, and they have a ways to go to get into any kind of playoff positioning.
They’re nine games behind the first-place Brewers in the National League Central as of Thursday morning. But that’s actually 10 games back, because Milwaukee has already clinched the season series and thus owns the tiebreaker between the teams.
The Cardinals and Pirates are also ahead of the Cubs in the division entering Thursday, with the Reds just a half-game back, so barring something close to a miracle, the Cubs can probably be counted out of the NL Central race.
However, with three wild cards in each league now, that lends a lot of late-season hope to teams hoping for just one hot streak, like the Cubs.
Chicago is frankly not in good shape in this department, either. The Cubs enter play Thursday five games behind the Braves for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks and Padres are tied with each other, two games ahead of the Braves, for the other two spots.
And there are still four teams between the Cubs and Braves in the NL standings.
That’s just a lot of teams to have to jump. If the Cubs do go on a hot streak, it’s likely one or more of those teams will, too.
This explains a lot of why FanGraphs has the Cubs’ playoff odds at a meager 6.8% entering Thursday, despite their recent stretch of good play.
But the Cubs have long forfeited the luxury of getting to monitor other teams from above in the standings. They simply have to keep winning — a lot — and hope things fall into place as they need.
Remaining schedule
If you’re looking for optimism as a Cubs fan, here it is.
According to Tankathon, the Cubs enter Thursday with the third-easiest remaining schedule among MLB’s 30 teams.
That includes two games this weekend against the worst team in MLB this season — and quite possibly one of the worst ever.
The Cubs will head to the South Side to play the second half of the 2024 Crosstown Classic against the White Sox, just off an American League record-tying 21-game losing streak, on Friday and Saturday night.
You can’t call anything a “must-win game” in the second weekend of August, but these two are pretty close. The Cubs almost have to sweep the woeful White Sox in the two-game series to stay relevant in the NL postseason picture. One loss might be OK. Two losses might signify the end.
That’s because, after a rare Sunday off-day following the two-game series, the Cubs play the Guardians, one of the best teams in baseball, in Cleveland from Monday through Wednesday.
There is no more cushion for the 2024 Cubs. Winning series probably won’t be enough anymore. They need some sweeps, and they need a lot of help, to reach the playoffs for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
But with 45 games to go, at least there are signs of life.