A discussion of the season to come from the BCB staff.
BCB’s front-page writers have done several of these roundtable discussions previewing Cubs seasons and postseasons, so here we are again to kick off the 2025 season. Josh, Sara, Thomas, Duane and I had a lively online conversation Wednesday afternoon. The online chat has been lightly edited for clarity. Ashley was unable to join us for this discussion.
Al Yellon: So… everyone here ready for a Cubs playoff season?
Sara Sanchez: I’ll believe that when I see it but I believe in it more this year than recent ones.
Thomas Smith: Absolutely! Postseason or bust.
Josh Timmers: I guess. I’ll get more excited when it looks more real. Although I can’t imagine any other team in the Central making the playoffs either.
Sara Sanchez: And to be clear — under no circumstances should Jed Hoyer still be here if the Cubs miss the postseason in 2025.
Al Yellon: Has to be, because Jed Hoyer made all these deals this offseason trying to save his job. We agree, Sara, this is Hoyer’s make or break year
Thomas Smith: Agreed. This is it for Jed.
Al Yellon: I think people aren’t really seeing how much of a difference Kyle Tucker will make for this offense. Maybe because he went 2-for-28 in spring games.
Josh Timmers: Tucker, if healthy, is a top ten player in the game.
Al Yellon: For sure, and that’s a difference maker, a much better player than Cody Bellinger.
Josh Timmers: Yes.
Thomas Smith: Tucker has to produce.
Sara Sanchez: Yes, but Wrigley is notoriously tough on lefties — I think Tucker has power that clears the Wrigley hurdle but I’ll be keeping an eye on that.
Al Yellon: I think Wrigley was tough on all hitters last year. This year might be the opposite.
Josh Timmers: And of course, Wrigley bizarrely played like the Astrodome in the 70s last year.
Sara Sanchez: It’s historically tough on lefties. Mark Grace and Billy Williams were joking about it at Cubs Con two years ago
Al Yellon: Beyond Tucker, who would you say is (are) the most important players for the Cubs this year?
Josh Timmers: PCA.
Al Yellon: I have three: PCA, Busch and Amaya. If those three produce this is going to be a VERY good team.
Duane Pesice: Matt Shaw, Nico Hoerner, Kyle Tucker and Jameson Taillon. Shaw exceeds expectations, Hoerner shows power, Tucker is Bellinger junior, Taillon is a 15-win man.
Thomas Smith: It would be nice if Tucker hit the ground running on this initial trip. Keep him away from pressing.
Josh Timmers: If PCA hits at a league average level, he’s a 4 win player. If he hits above that, he’s a 6 win player
Sara Sanchez: I think it’s Shōta — if he’s an ace like last year, this rotation is very very good. If he benefited from the park effect we were just discussing and he’s like a 3.50 ERA guy the Cubs are like 2 SP2, 2SP4 and a smattering of SP5’s.
Josh Timmers: Yeah, Shōta is a big issue. I’m not loving the Cubs rotation—don’t hate it, but it doesn’t seem like they can carry the team. Shota could be that guy to carry the team. As could Cade Horton come midseason if everything goes right. I don’t count on that.
Sara Sanchez: Yeah, the rotation is where I have questions.
Thomas Smith: Hoerner and PCA.
Al Yellon: Ben Brown could be the biggest wild card for the rotation. If he produces up to his ability he’s way better than a No. 5 starter.
Thomas Smith: It’s so hard to imagine Brown throwing 150 innings, though.
Al Yellon: Still, even if Brown can’t throw a lot of innings, they do have pitchers who can throw multiple innings in relief.
Thomas Smith: Going to need 2-3 guys to emerge from a lot of quantity in the pen. Two years running with bullpen depth issues.
Al Yellon: I give Hoyer some credit for addressing the bullpen issue from last year.
Josh Timmers: Yeah, I’m a lot more optimistic about the bullpen this year. There’s much more depth. That’s what killed the team last May/June—all the injured relievers and no one to step up.
Al Yellon: Do you guys see Ryan Pressly closing all year or will Porter Hodge eventually step up and close?
Sara Sanchez: I think Hodge is the closer for most of the year. His K-BB is much better and Pressly has experience but his K% really fell off last year.
Josh Timmers: I think Pressly is the closer. Hodge will get chances here and there. So might Nate Pearson or even Brad Keller.
Sara Sanchez: I think of Pressly as like the security blanket/mentor for Hodge
Thomas Smith: I think it’s Hodge’s job. Just a matter of when.
Al Yellon: I like Hodge a lot and I think he will eventually take over the role.
Josh Timmers: It doesn’t really matter which one pitches the eighth and which one pitches the ninth, though.
Al Yellon: While that makes sense, no modern manager is going to operate that way, guys get designated for specific innings.
Josh Timmers: No, I agree. That’s why I think Pressly will get most of the chances. But it’s not a problem is Hodge is pitching the 8th.
Thomas Smith: Yeah. I keep waiting for the trend of the best guy facing the meat of the order regardless of inning.
Al Yellon: That’s a much better 8th/9th combo than the Cubs had, say, midseason 2024.
Thomas Smith: No question.
Josh Timmers: Hector Neris!
Al Yellon: Pressly, at least, has closing experience. Neris really was a setup man pressed into service closing, like LaTroy Hawkins was two decades ago.
Sara Sanchez: Well, Neris had closing experience with the Phillies. But Pressly’s big weapon is a curve and that ages pretty well (see: Wainwright, Rich Hill, etc.).
Josh Timmers: Neris did have that closing experience with the Phillies. He just wasn’t very good at it.
Sara Sanchez: Fair, Josh. Pressly should not decline as much as Neris did (who was amazingly lucky considering all the walks).
Thomas Smith: Javier Assad could be interesting out of the pen if he gets healthy. And hopefully Julian Merryweather bounces back
Al Yellon: In any case… glad the Cubs don’t have to count on someone like that this year. Does the early season schedule concern you at all?
Sara Sanchez: No.
Thomas Smith: Yep.
Sara Sanchez: Gotta play those teams sometime, might as well do it when Wrigley is playing like a pitcher’s park.
Al Yellon: I look at it as a good test, if the Cubs are as good as I think they are, they should be able to beat those teams.
Josh Timmers: Yes. But more with me having to deal with angry commenters if the Cubs are 13-17 at the end of April.
Al Yellon: A .500 team at the end of April wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Josh Timmers: A .500 team at the end of April is playoff bound.
Duane Pesice: Absolutely. They’re not expected to be .500 at the end of the toughest scheduled month for any MLB team.
Thomas Smith: Exactly that. We all know it’s likely. But just hang in there. Not looking forward to Cub social media quitting the team.
Sara Sanchez: I am interested in seeing what the Cubs Bluesky vibe will be
Al Yellon: Agreed. I am hoping the team will start posting there.
Josh Timmers: I’m more interested in just getting a Cubs Bluesky community to be more robust.
Sara Sanchez: It would help for the Cubs themselves to be there…
Josh Timmers: Need both the Cubs and the affiliates on there.
Sara Sanchez: Marquee was on there during Cubs Con. I shared stuff from their posts.
Josh Timmers: That helps.
Al Yellon: What are some of the other things people should know about this year’s Cubs?
Sara Sanchez: I mean — am I the only one who’s gonna be comparing Matt Shaw and Cam Smith every step of the way?
Josh Timmers: That the Iowa Cubs are absolutely loaded and ready to take over if there are any injuries or other problems. I guess they’re also available for trades. I’m not comparing Shaw and Smith. I wish Smith well. He was a great draft pick that landed us Tucker.
Al Yellon: I think the Astros might be making a mistake putting Smith on their Opening Day roster based on a dozen spring games
Sara Sanchez: Oh, I am making that comparison, especially because the Cubs don’t seem to have any plan to extend Tucker.
Josh Timmers: I don’t know about that. The Cubs are an incredibly tight-lipped organization. We really don’t know what they’re thinking. I mean, sure, they could be uninterested in extending Tucker. It could also be their top goal. We just don’t know.
Thomas Smith: I’m interested to see the Tucker saga unfold. Including the part where Bellinger was traded for salary relief. What do they do with that flexibility?
Al Yellon: Yes, Josh, exactly. This team isn’t going to say anything about that, not now anyway. And the player has to want to, as well.
Thomas Smith: One other important thing is much improved roster depth. Depth is huge for getting to the playoffs
Al Yellon: You are right about roster depth. We don’t have to worry about the automatic outs of Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom anymore. Jon Berti and Justin Turner are far better players
Thomas Smith: I’m hoping Turner stays productive. He certainly was last year.
Sara Sanchez: I like Turner a lot. I am not sure why this team insists on platooning Busch
Al Yellon: I wasn’t a big fan of the Turner signing but he appears to be a great teammate and in limited play he’ll be fine.
Josh Timmers: My dog is named Turner. So obviously I’m glad he’s a Cub. What about Gage Workman? I’m actually a little excited about that guy. He’s a different player since he gave up switch-hitting.
Sara Sanchez: I love Workman. So do ZiPS and PECOTA.
Al Yellon: Workman could be one of the better Rule 5 picks in recent years. He looks like the real deal.
Duane Pesice: He sure does. Better than Cam Smith, actually.
Sara Sanchez: I was a little bummed to see Jon Berti get playing time over him in Japan (although clearly that worked out as Berti WAS the offense).
Al Yellon: Workman could be a better version of Patrick Wisdom.
Josh Timmers: Oh, I think Workman will be a very different player than Wisdom in a good way.
Thomas Smith: I feel like all of the bench is improved. And all those top prospects in Iowa.
Al Yellon: Who will be the biggest surprises — both positive and negative — for the Cubs this year?
Josh Timmers: I don’t know. Matthew Boyd is going to surprise us either positively or negatively.
Sara Sanchez: I think Boyd is the new Drew Smyly.
Al Yellon: I think Boyd could be a real good positive surprise.
Sara Sanchez: He’s going to crush for 80 innings and then turn into a pumpkin so I hope Cade Horton is ready when he does.
Thomas Smith: Will any of the prospects make an impact this year, Josh?
Josh Timmers: The minor leaguers? Cade Horton, maybe Kevin Alcántara if there’s an opening in Chicago.Brandon Birdsell could come up and make a difference too. He’s got some Professor in him.
Thomas Smith: I’m always waiting for the Nico Hoerner offensive breakout. I think it needs to be now. Even just a full healthy season for Hoerner would be something.
Josh Timmers: I think Hoerner is who he is.
Al Yellon: Some people thought Nico could be as good as Ian Kinsler. I don’t think he’s in that category, but I do think Nico is better than he has been.
Sara Sanchez: I don’t really see a huge negative on this team? It’s a high floor group. I think most of the negatives from this season will be player’s they passed on doing good things other places (like Smith or Canario)
Josh Timmers: Canario’s getting DFA’d by the Mets.
Sara Sanchez: Of course he is, he’s out of options, but he’s going to play somewhere and the bat is crazy intriguing.
Josh Timmers: I think Canario is a 4th outfielder.
Sara Sanchez: I think Canario could hit 30+ homers for a bad team and it’s possible NO ONE on the Cubs hits 30+ homers, which is why it’s such a vexing roster decision to me.
Al Yellon: I think Tucker and Seiya Suzuki could both hit 30 HR.
Thomas Smith: I’m most interested in what PCA does.
Sara Sanchez: I think PCA has another level and I hope he hits .250 while stealing 50+ bases.
Al Yellon: I think PCA could steal 60 bases and hit 20 homers.
Josh Timmers: I’m still a Michael Busch fan. I think he’s an underrated player who could take another step forward this year.
Al Yellon: As I said earlier, I think the keys to this team are PCA, Busch and Amaya. If all three take steps forward this will be a VERY good team.
Josh Timmers: Agreed, Al. Although I’d like to see a starting pitcher take a step forward too.
Sara Sanchez: Honestly, I’m still not sold on Amaya (happy to be proven wrong!) but I am sold on Ballesteros. So….I’m not worried about the Cubs catching situation.
Josh Timmers: I am totally sold on Ballesteros’ bat. It’s his glove that’s the issue and the Cubs put a lot of emphasis on catcher defense.
Thomas Smith: I think by some time in May this team clicks and plays. 600 ball the rest of the way. Just a matter of not being buried first.
Al Yellon: Okay, time to predict where this team will finish.
Sara Sanchez: 86 wins, LDS loss
Josh Timmers: If the Cubs make it to the LCS, I’m guessing that’s a successful season. Although we’ll all be angry at the time that they didn’t make it to the World Series.
Thomas Smith: I’m going optimistic and 91 wins.
Duane Pesice: 87 wins, LCS loss.
Al Yellon: For me, this is a 90 win team that will win the NL Central and win a wild card series (since they will be the home team) but lose a division series.
Josh Timmers: I’ve got them at 88 wins and the Central title. After that, the playoffs are a crapshoot. I don’t see them winning the World Series, but you never know. I hope they win a playoff series.
Al Yellon: Of course, that would also mean everyone stays (mostly) healthy.
Duane Pesice: Yes. Of course that scenario means Jed probably comes back.
Josh Timmers: But the good news is that this is a much deeper team than the last two years. I think they can withstand a normal amount of injuries. Losing Tucker or a catcher would be an issue.
Thomas Smith: They should be able to survive non-crippling type injuries. The ordinary short IL stint should be okay.
Sara Sanchez: I’m not sure just making the DS saves Jed’s job, especially if Cam Smith is like the AL Rookie of the Year or something, and Tucker walks.
Al Yellon: I think if Hoyer is fired, Hawkins is not the replacement. They’ll have to go outside the organization at that point.
Duane Pesice: Depends on how bad they want him to go. I don’t want/trust Hawkins.
Al Yellon: Cam Smith isn’t going to be AL Rookie of the Year.
Duane Pesice: No, he isn’t. But Brown might be, or Shaw.
Sara Sanchez: Al, would you like to make a side wager on that?
Al Yellon: Sure, Sara, I’ll do that.
Sara Sanchez: Cool, ballpark food of the other person’s choosing in 2026.
Al Yellon: Done.
Josh Timmers: I’m worried about the catching situation. I like Amaya and Kelly—that’s a good pair. But Ballesteros can’t catch yet and an injury to one of those would force him behind the plate in the majors and that could get ugly.
Al Yellon: How about some final thoughts?
Duane Pesice: The Cubs might get Canario back.
Josh Timmers: The one thing we know is that no one knows anything in this town.
Thomas Smith: Tucker wins my Rizzo award. Easy pick.
Sara Sanchez: I think this team is better than last year. If the pitching is able to repeat what it did last year without the park effect it could be a very fun season. I do think they have to win the division, though. It’s hard to see a wild card coming out of the Central.
Duane Pesice: Boyd gets hurt. Wicks replaces him
Josh Timmers: This could be a really exciting team. There are so many guys like Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown that could step up and make this team a title contender. But you can’t really count on them all.
Duane Pesice: Could PCA be a 5 WAR player?
Josh Timmers: Duane, there was a link to an article in OTC yesterday where they simulate 25 seasons. In one, PCA was a 7.5 WAR player.
Duane Pesice: I saw that. 5 WAR is good. I’m with that
Al Yellon: This team is finally going to do what it should have done the last two years — make the postseason. They’re better than most people give them credit for. I look forward to a fun season!
Josh Timmers: Also, we’ve gone through this whole chat without mentioning Dansby Swanson. He’s a key to this season too. Terribly underrated by Cubs fans.
Duane Pesice: He’s going to have a good year hitting fifth or sixth.
Thomas Smith: It feels like almost every Cub is a little underrated.
Al Yellon: Thanks everyone and go Cubs!
Duane Pesice: Cheers! Go Cubs!
Thomas Smith: Back to the grind. Should be more enjoyable at least.
Sara Sanchez: Same! Great to see you all!
Al Yellon: Thanks again everyone!