BCB After Dark: Will Shōta Imanaga improve in his second year with the Cubs?

Imanaga looked like an ace for most of 2024, but there are some red flags

Whether you’re joining our little indie coffee shop late at night on Friday or in the wee hours of Saturday morning, welcome! Pull up a chair and grab a beverage. We’re a little under two weeks away from the Thanksgiving holidays and pumpkin spiced beverages and brews are all the rage. Whether you prefer your pumpkin spices chilled or steamed we’ve got a drink for you — and some more steamer projections to debate while we welcome in the weekend. Don’t forget to bus your tables and tip the waitstaff, Josh will be back with regularly scheduled BCB After Dark programming on Monday and we want everyone happy with our little pop-up shop when he returns.

Speaking of returns, it’s hard to argue with the return the Cubs got from signing Shōta Imanaga to a pretty team friendly contract during last offseason. It’s probably the best deal Jed has ever gotten for anyone. Not going to lie. Imanaga’s deal with the Cubs is an absolute steal for the Cubs. It’s the function of a few things, first, he was 30 years old when he was posted, which kept the absolute value of the the contract down. But beyond that, Imanaga had a well-known home run/flyball issue in Japan that gave a lot of MLB teams pause as they were assessing Imanaga’s talent.

Which resulted in the Cubs inking this deal:

Per a source, the contract guarantees $53 million over four seasons, but the pact gives the pitcher and ballclub multiple paths forward. After the 2025 and ‘26 seasons, Chicago will have the option to extend the deal to five years ($80 million total). If the deal is not extended in either offseason, Imanaga will have the right to elect free agency.

And boy, did Imanaga deliver in his first run through the league. He posted a 2.91 ERA off a 3.72 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. He struck out 25.1 percent of the batters he faced while walking just 4.0 percent of the batters he faced. That is an elite K-BB percent, with Imanaga ranking eighth in MLB among qualified hitters, just behind Zack Wheeler and just ahead of Bailey Ober.

But will it hold up his second time through the league? Let’s listen to some tunes while we consider that question…

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You know, it’s hard to be more famous than J-Lo. After all, how many people are known by a nickname in such a colloquial way? This woman has built an empire on music, moves and honestly, an above average understanding of Moneyball?

Look, I have some quibbles with the specifics that Jennifer Lopez went into here, but it’s pretty clear that A-Rod was cribbing notes from J-Lo if you know what I mean?

So who better to feature in a piece about second acts and limits than Jenny from the Block? We’ll save that tune for another day though and today lean into Limitless:

There aren’t a lot of musical artists walking around planet Earth that have the range or reach that J-Lo does. That woman is a star. She’s played on all of the biggest stages and owned them. I mean, A-Rod said it better than I can:

She’s branched out into different enterprises and owned those too. Do you have any idea how wild it is that a Latina was highlighted as the brains behind her checks notes ones of the best baseball players in history husband doing analysis for MLB? It’s wild. And we should all appreciate it.

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Is Shōta limitless?

He might be, honestly. Only time will tell. I mean, beyond the K-BB rate I highlighted above, there are reasons to believe that what Imanaga is doing can and will continue to play at the major league level.

For starters, there is this from Pitching Ninja, it’s filthy. Enjoy:

That’s unhittable tunneling. Two pitches come out of the exact same arm slot and position and the batter has to choose. Good luck. But beyond that, there is reason to believe that Imanaga has adaptive range, for example, this:

Look, I am not a pitch modeler and I cannot tell you if Imanaga’s fastball played differently before/after he talked to Paul Skenes. However, if that man can adapt that fast to a new pitch grip, MLB best be prepared for Shōta to continue to kick it to another level because being able to adapt like that is wild.

And, also — I need to register a note of caution in all the joy about Shōta — and let’s be clear, there is a lot of joy:

The home run thing might actually be a thing. Shōta’s HR/FB rate in 2024 was 1.40 — among qualified starting pitchers that ranked seventh worst in baseball behind José Berríos and ahead of JP Sears. Just trust me that this isn’t exactly the company you want to keep in HR/9 territory.

Additionally, as I’ve written here before, Wrigley Field had a very down year offensively in 2024. In fact, the park factor for home runs at Wrigley Field was 85 last season, which made it the worst park in baseball for home runs. Yes, really. It was even worse than Seattle. Now, that’s not unprecedented for the park, the old Friendly Confines has had worse offensive years. But it is interesting that the Cubs signed a pitcher with noted home run and fly ball issues and he had a breakout shining year in one of the worst years for home runs in the ball park.

Imanaga’s HR/9 at Wrigley was 1.3 and his HR/FB percentage at home was 12.2 percent. Away from Wrigley Field that HR/9 was 1.5 and his HR/FB percentage was 12.3 percent. One of those numbers makes me feel worse than the other, and neither is going to take into account a veteran pitcher adapting to the league the second time through the league.

For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Imanaga for a bit of a regression to a 3.66 ERA off the 2.91 he put up in 2024. It believes in the strikeout and walk rates, and actually shows a favorable 1.3 HR/9 rate for Imanaga. My question for the late night crew at BCB is, do you agree or would a regression to the mean of weather at Wrigely Field spell a disastrous second act for the Cubs lefty starter?